机构：华创证券 研究员：刘欣/吴婧 利润端：受电影单片+加大演出投入影响利润率有所下滑。25H1 毛利率37.9%（YOY-15.4pct），受内容 成本增加+加大演出投入有所下降。此外，销售/管理费用绝对值分别YOY-12.2%/-20.2%，降本提效持 续推进。 展望后续，关注电影单片释放&演出进展。1）7 月起电影大盘已明显边际改善，公司作为头部参与 方，储备有《刺杀小说家2》（10/1）、《熊猫计划2》（10/1）、《浪浪人生》（12/31）、《匿杀》 （12/31）、《飞驰人生3》等单片待释放，期待后续上线后表现；2）现场演出：当前行业仍在增长， 公司积极攫取份额中，积极关注后续进展。 投资建议：25 年电影有望进入新一轮产品周期，看好行业修复。我们看好猫眼电影相关业务优势持 续，预计随大盘快速修复；同时现场演出票务有望贡献第二增长曲线。我们根据24 年实际表现情况及 25 年片单，调整此前预期，预测公司25-27 年的营业收入分别为45.98/53.71/60.68 亿元（ 此前预计 48.98/53.99/58.35 亿元），同比增长13%/17%/13%；经调整归母净利润分别为4.72/6.7 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00571 | 丰德丽控股 | 0.059 | 13.46% | | 01132 | 橙天嘉禾 | 0.098 | 10.11% | | 02306 | 出張増光 | 2.050 | 4.06% | | 09958 | 力天影业 | 0.335 | 3.08% | | 09899 | 网易云音乐 | 268.600 | 2.28% | | 01698 | 腾讯音乐-SW | 96.250 | 2.07% | | 02230 | 羚邦集团 | 0.290 | 1.75% | | 08446 | 耀星科技集团 | 0.166 | 1.22% | | 06698 | 星空华文 | 1.810 | 1.12% | | 08220 | 比高集团 | 4.380 | 0.92% | 责任编辑：栎树 港股影视娱乐股度多数逆势上涨，其中，橙天嘉禾涨超10%，乐华娱乐涨4%，力天影业涨3%，星空华 文、比高集团涨1%。 消息上，在《南京照相馆》《浪浪山小妖怪》等多部影片推动下，今年暑期档票房超119亿元，欢迎人 次超3. ...

展望后续，电影市场仍有多部待映影片值得期待。包括定档9月18日上映的《731》，由长影集团、保利 影业、环鹰时代等公司参与出品，目前该影片的猫眼想看人数超424万人。此外还有已经定档国庆的华 策影业、中国电影等出品的《刺杀小说家2》；猫眼娱乐（01896.HK）等出品的《熊猫计划2》；果麦 文化（301052.SZ）、光线影业等出品的《三国的星空第一部》等。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00571 | 丰德丽控股 | 0.059 | 13.46% | | 01132 | 橙天嘉禾 | 0.098 | 10.11% | | 02306 | 出版社 | 2.050 | 4.06% | | 09958 | 力天影业 | 0.335 | 3.08% | | 09899 | 网易云音乐 | 268.600 | 2.28% | | 01698 | 腾讯音乐-SW | 96.250 | 2.07% | | 02230 | 羚邦集团 | 0.290 | 1.75% | | 08446 | 耀星科技集团 | 0.166 | 1.22% | ...

国庆档影片已陆续定档，关注四季度进口片引进 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，2Q25大多数电影公司因大盘票房平淡而收入下滑，利润端则受 成本刚性影响同比下滑幅度更大。2025暑期档票房落点略低于此前预期(130~160亿元)，主要因头部国 产商业片定档时间偏晚；7月中下旬以来，观影需求随影片上映出现明显改善；部分影片的票房及IP衍 生业务或具长尾效应，大盘观影需求亦有望持续。此外，国庆档影片已陆续定档，《惊天魔盗团3》 《疯狂动物城2》《阿凡达3》等IP续作进口片有望于4Q25引进，或对全年票房形成一定支撑。建议关 注国产片票房表现及进口片引进节奏。 中金主要观点如下： 2Q25电影公司业绩表现整体较平淡 2Q25大多数电影公司因大盘票房平淡而收入下滑，利润端则受成本刚性影响同比下滑幅度更大。光线 传媒2Q25收入与利润均同比增长，判断《哪吒2》衍生业务或为其主要贡献，影片票房亦具备一定长尾 效应。 2Q25：大盘票房承压，电影公司注重深入降本增效 根据艺恩，2Q25全国电影大盘含服务费票房48.5亿元，同降近35%，对各电影公司收入端均造成一定压 力。中金认为，通常二季度是电影行业淡季，而造成2Q25大 ...

Core Insights - The current state of the film industry is marked by a lack of genuine storytelling and creativity, leading to disappointing box office results during the May Day holiday period, with a 50% year-on-year decline in ticket sales, reverting to 2017 levels [1][3][5] - The industry is experiencing a reflection phase, where the failure of films is attributed to the content itself rather than external factors, indicating a need for creators to take full responsibility for their work [5][6] - Hong Kong directors, once at the forefront of the Chinese film industry, are now seen as outdated, with their techniques becoming tiresome for audiences, as evidenced by the poor performance of their recent films [8][10] Industry Trends - The film market is witnessing a significant shift, with audiences increasingly rejecting formulaic and recycled content, as seen in the stark contrast between successful films like "Nezha" and the underperformance of recent releases [3][19] - There is a growing concern that filmmakers are succumbing to the pressures of short video formats, leading to a faster-paced storytelling style that may not resonate with traditional film audiences [14][18] - The upcoming film slate shows a lack of innovative projects, with many filmmakers opting for sequels or adaptations rather than original content, which may hinder the industry's recovery [21][23] Audience Expectations - Audiences are becoming more discerning, with higher standards for what constitutes a worthwhile film experience, as evidenced by the poor reception of films that fail to deliver meaningful narratives [19][21] - The trend of "crying films" that gained popularity during the pandemic is waning, with recent releases struggling to attract viewers, indicating a shift in audience preferences [19][21] - There is a call for filmmakers to explore deeper, more relatable themes that reflect the complexities of modern life, rather than relying on superficial success narratives [11][18]