机构：华创证券 研究员：刘欣/吴婧 利润端：受电影单片+加大演出投入影响利润率有所下滑。25H1 毛利率37.9%（YOY-15.4pct），受内容 成本增加+加大演出投入有所下降。此外，销售/管理费用绝对值分别YOY-12.2%/-20.2%，降本提效持 续推进。 展望后续，关注电影单片释放&演出进展。1）7 月起电影大盘已明显边际改善，公司作为头部参与 方，储备有《刺杀小说家2》（10/1）、《熊猫计划2》（10/1）、《浪浪人生》（12/31）、《匿杀》 （12/31）、《飞驰人生3》等单片待释放，期待后续上线后表现；2）现场演出：当前行业仍在增长， 公司积极攫取份额中，积极关注后续进展。 投资建议：25 年电影有望进入新一轮产品周期，看好行业修复。我们看好猫眼电影相关业务优势持 续，预计随大盘快速修复；同时现场演出票务有望贡献第二增长曲线。我们根据24 年实际表现情况及 25 年片单，调整此前预期，预测公司25-27 年的营业收入分别为45.98/53.71/60.68 亿元（ 此前预计 48.98/53.99/58.35 亿元），同比增长13%/17%/13%；经调整归母净利润分别为4.72/6.7 ...

Core Insights - The current state of the film industry is marked by a lack of genuine storytelling and creativity, leading to disappointing box office results during the May Day holiday period, with a 50% year-on-year decline in ticket sales, reverting to 2017 levels [1][3][5] - The industry is experiencing a reflection phase, where the failure of films is attributed to the content itself rather than external factors, indicating a need for creators to take full responsibility for their work [5][6] - Hong Kong directors, once at the forefront of the Chinese film industry, are now seen as outdated, with their techniques becoming tiresome for audiences, as evidenced by the poor performance of their recent films [8][10] Industry Trends - The film market is witnessing a significant shift, with audiences increasingly rejecting formulaic and recycled content, as seen in the stark contrast between successful films like "Nezha" and the underperformance of recent releases [3][19] - There is a growing concern that filmmakers are succumbing to the pressures of short video formats, leading to a faster-paced storytelling style that may not resonate with traditional film audiences [14][18] - The upcoming film slate shows a lack of innovative projects, with many filmmakers opting for sequels or adaptations rather than original content, which may hinder the industry's recovery [21][23] Audience Expectations - Audiences are becoming more discerning, with higher standards for what constitutes a worthwhile film experience, as evidenced by the poor reception of films that fail to deliver meaningful narratives [19][21] - The trend of "crying films" that gained popularity during the pandemic is waning, with recent releases struggling to attract viewers, indicating a shift in audience preferences [19][21] - There is a call for filmmakers to explore deeper, more relatable themes that reflect the complexities of modern life, rather than relying on superficial success narratives [11][18]