炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：游戏葡萄 更关注系统的成长，而不是目标。 文/托马斯之颅&以撒&电了个教 距离我们上一次和沐瞳联合创始人&前CEO袁菁（Justin）对话，已经过去整整一年了。 离开沐瞳之后，他二次创业，成立了派络特这家公司。很多人可能以为，他们会风风火火地开始搞大项 目，但现实却很出人意料——派络特的第一款产品《女吊》，是相当小众的恐怖题材；除了作为基本面 的出海手游研发、发行之外，公司的投资方向不算主流，主要面向一些Steam产品和团队。 长按扫码收听文章对应播客 文章对应对谈视频 以下是经过整理的对话内容（由于是相对随意的聊天对话，部分口语化表述不一定准确，但尽量保留了 生动表达）： 01 让工作， 而袁菁本人，平时也并不追求每天坐班式的管理方式，而是时常去做自己感兴趣的事，还做起了播客栏 目。他告诉我们，希望工作能够为自己的生活方式服务。 听到这儿，你可能会有点疑惑——这位财务自由的大佬是不是躺平了？别急别急，在和葡萄君的对话 中，他对这些状态做了详细的解释。 袁菁提到，这种看似松散的经营方式，其实源于他想清楚了自己创业的目的：他不想为了 ...

Core Insights - "The Game Awards" recognized "Expedition 33" as a major success, winning multiple industry awards and gaining acclaim from both media and players, despite controversy over its classification as an indie game [1][21] - The success of "Expedition 33" is attributed to a series of fortunate coincidences and unconventional resource acquisition methods, leading to a narrative of luck in its development [1][2] Team Composition - The initial team of Sandfall was formed through personal connections of producer Guillaume Broche, who recruited colleagues and friends from Ubisoft, along with talent found online [1][4] - Approximately 80% of Sandfall's 30 employees were either recent graduates or newcomers to the gaming industry, showcasing a unique blend of fresh perspectives [2][21] - The recruitment process emphasized finding individuals who shared similar interests and aesthetic sensibilities, rather than focusing solely on industry experience [10][12] Development Process - The development of "Expedition 33" was marked by a series of fortunate events, including the timing of the pandemic, which allowed team members to seek new opportunities and collaborate on the project [12][13] - The use of Unreal Engine 5 provided significant advantages, enabling a small team to create a visually impressive game that would have been difficult to achieve five years prior [13][17] Publishing and Marketing - The partnership with Kepler Interactive, a unique publisher focused on supporting indie projects, played a crucial role in elevating the game's visibility and quality without interfering in the creative process [14][17] - Kepler Interactive provided funding for development and marketing, including high-profile voice actors and promotional collaborations, significantly enhancing the game's reach [17][18] Industry Impact - The unconventional approach of Sandfall and the success of "Expedition 33" challenge traditional industry norms, suggesting a potential shift towards smaller, more agile development teams that can produce innovative content without extensive resources [21][24] - The game has sparked discussions about the future of game development, particularly in how smaller teams can leverage external resources and talent to create compelling experiences [23][24]

Core Insights - The year 2024 was marked by a significant release of successful new games in the domestic gaming market, while 2025 is characterized by a lack of notable new products [1] - Despite the scarcity of new releases, the domestic gaming industry continues to grow, with a reported 14% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of the year, followed by a recovery of 7.8% growth in October [2] - The growth in the gaming market is primarily driven by established "evergreen" games, as many new products have failed to meet expectations [2][3] Industry Trends - The gaming market is experiencing a concentration of resources towards leading companies, with Tencent and NetEase performing well, while many smaller companies struggle [4] - The success of long-standing games like "Dream of the Red Chamber" and "World of Warcraft" demonstrates that a small number of titles can maintain longevity and profitability, contrasting with the short lifecycle of most mobile games [3] - The failure of single-player games like "Ming Dynasty" highlights the challenges in the single-player market, with few companies willing to invest heavily in AAA titles [5][6] Development Strategies - The industry is shifting towards a focus on cost-effective game development, as exemplified by the success of "Expedition No. 33," which achieved high sales with a low budget [7][8] - Future game development is expected to prioritize smaller, manageable projects rather than large-scale productions, reflecting a broader trend towards "value for money" in game design [8]

Core Insights - The success of "Expedition 33" at TGA 2025 is attributed not only to the developer Sandfall Interactive but also significantly to the publisher Kepler Interactive, which was invested in by NetEase for $120 million in 2021 [1][3][4] - Kepler Interactive operates as a unique alliance of developers rather than a traditional publisher, allowing for a collaborative decision-making structure among its member studios [5][6][9] Group 1: Kepler Interactive's Model - Kepler Interactive is described as a developer co-governance model, where founders of the seven studios form a decision-making committee, allowing for shared ownership and collaborative decision-making [5][6] - This model provides member studios with essential support in human resources, legal, and IT, while maintaining creative autonomy [6][9] - Kepler aims to be recognized for high-quality mid-tier games, similar to A24 in the film industry, focusing on unique and innovative game designs [9] Group 2: Success Factors of "Expedition 33" - "Expedition 33" successfully filled a market gap for 2A games, particularly in the JRPG genre, which had seen a decline in offerings [10][12] - The game was developed with a restrained cost strategy, reportedly under $30 million, allowing for a sustainable development approach [14][15] - Sandfall Interactive plans to maintain a small team of under 50 people to ensure agility and creativity in future projects, avoiding the pitfalls of larger team structures [15][16] Group 3: Implications for the Industry - The success of "Expedition 33" highlights the potential for innovative publishing models to revitalize the gaming industry, encouraging a focus on efficient development processes [17] - NetEase's investment in Kepler serves as a case study for other major companies to consider investing in promising publishers and developers that understand market dynamics [17]

Group 1 - NetEase's first major single-player game, "Wanmin Changge: Three Kingdoms," was canceled shortly after its demo release, indicating a cautious approach to project viability based on market demand [4][17] - The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" has revitalized the single-player game market in China, showcasing its potential beyond direct sales revenue and changing perceptions about the quality of domestic single-player games [4][5] - The number of new F2P games in China is declining, with a reported drop of over 22% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging environment for free-to-play titles [4][12] Group 2 - The single-player game market in China saw significant growth, with sales reaching approximately 10.22 billion yuan in 2024, largely driven by "Black Myth: Wukong," which alone generated around 9 billion yuan [7][9] - Despite the growth in single-player games, they still lag behind top F2P games in revenue, with "Honor of Kings" generating approximately 2.419 billion USD (about 17.359 billion yuan) in 2024 [9][10] - The cost of developing AAA games has become a significant challenge, with budgets often exceeding 100 million USD, leading to a focus on fewer, more secure projects by major publishers [18][20] Group 3 - The cancellation of "Wanmin Changge: Three Kingdoms" highlights the high development costs associated with single-player games, where a team of 70 could incur costs of around 150 million yuan over three years, necessitating substantial sales to break even [17][21] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards mid-tier 2A games and independent titles as viable options for developers, allowing for better cost control while still delivering creative content [21] - The current landscape suggests that the single-player game market may be entering a favorable era, where both creative aspirations and financial viability can coexist [21]