2025.12.30 本文字数：3958，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 |第一财经刘晓洁 2025年的中国游戏行业，是"回暖"与"内卷"并存的复杂图景。 市场收入突破3500亿元、用户规模超过6.8亿、版号数量创七年新高、游戏股估值持续修复……种种数据显示，这是游戏行业持续回暖的一年。然而，具 体到企业，在行业大盘触顶的存量竞争格局下，内卷仍是常态，耗资过亿的项目也很难成功了，游戏行业"挣钱越来越难"。 市场分化还在加剧，游戏产业分析师张书乐认为，强者越强是包括游戏产业在内的互联网科技领域的大势所趋，游戏行业的"二八定律"甚至在变成"一九 定律"。不过，单机和AI原生游戏正在成为中小团队突围的新机会。 谈及游戏行业这一年的关键词，渶策资本创始合伙人胡斌提到"转型"，产业正在从中国制作向中国创造，从数值驱动到创意驱动，从好卖到好玩。张书乐 判断，在游戏质量提升、游戏出海路径拓宽，以及各地密集出台激励政策的大背景下，中国游戏产业正在开启新一轮"黄金十年"的增长周期。 成功越来越难了 在高基数背景下，2025年国内游戏市场收入与用户规模再度刷新历史。 根据《2025年中国游戏产业报告》，今年国内游戏市场收入约3508亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gaming industry in 2025 is characterized by a complex landscape of "recovery" and "internal competition," with market revenue exceeding 350 billion yuan and user base surpassing 680 million, yet competition remains fierce and profitability increasingly challenging [3][4]. Market Overview - The domestic gaming market revenue for 2025 is approximately 350.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, while the user base has grown by about 1.4% to over 680 million [4]. - Self-developed games have generated overseas revenue of approximately 20.46 billion USD, maintaining a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan for six consecutive years [4]. - The industry has entered a phase of stock competition, with a saturated user base and a significant increase in self-developed game output, leading to heightened competition among companies [4][5]. Industry Trends - The gaming industry is experiencing a trend of increasing investment in research and development, particularly in art and quality, but the risk of failure for new games is rising due to intense competition in the stock market [4][5]. - The "winner-takes-all" phenomenon is intensifying, with top companies capturing a larger market share, leading to a shift from the "80/20 rule" to a potential "90/10 rule" in the industry [8][12]. Company Performance - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q3 2025 exceeded 63.6 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone, while NetEase's gaming revenue surpassed 70 billion yuan in the same period, indicating stable growth [10][11]. - The top ten mobile games in terms of revenue are dominated by Tencent, which has seven titles in the list, showcasing its strong market position [9][10]. New Opportunities - The rise of single-player games is a notable trend, with companies increasingly investing in AAA titles following the success of "Black Myth: Wukong," indicating a structural opportunity in the gaming industry [12][13]. - AI-native games are emerging as another exploration direction, with companies like miHoYo leading the way in integrating AI into game narratives, suggesting a potential shift in game development dynamics [14][15]. Future Outlook - The gaming industry is expected to enter a new "golden decade" of growth, driven by improved game quality, expanded overseas market pathways, and supportive policies, marking a transition from rapid growth to a focus on creativity and technology [15][16].

2025年的中国游戏行业，是"回暖"与"内卷"并存的复杂图景。 市场收入突破3500亿元、用户规模超过6.8亿、版号数量创七年新高、游戏股估值持续修复……种种数 据显示，这是游戏行业持续回暖的一年。然而，具体到企业，在行业大盘触顶的存量竞争格局下，内卷 仍是常态，耗资过亿的项目也很难成功了，游戏行业"挣钱越来越难"。 市场分化还在加剧，游戏产业分析师张书乐认为，强者越强是包括游戏产业在内的互联网科技领域的大 势所趋，游戏行业的"二八定律"甚至在变成"一九定律"。不过，单机和AI原生游戏正在成为中小团队突 围的新机会。 谈及游戏行业这一年的关键词，渶策资本创始合伙人胡斌提到"转型"，产业正在从中国制作向中国创 造，从数值驱动到创意驱动，从好卖到好玩。张书乐判断，在游戏质量提升、游戏出海路径拓宽，以及 各地密集出台激励政策的大背景下，中国游戏产业正在开启新一轮"黄金十年"的增长周期。 成功越来越难了 在高基数背景下，2025年国内游戏市场收入与用户规模再度刷新历史。 根据《2025年中国游戏产业报告》，今年国内游戏市场收入约3508亿元，同比增长7.7%；用户规模超 过6.8亿，同比增长约1.4%。自研游戏海外收 ...

Core Points - The new installment of the "Gu Jian Qi Tan" series, titled "Gu Jian," has been announced by Shanghai Zhulong, marking the first new single-player game in the series since "Gu Jian Qi Tan 3" was released in November 2018 [2][3] - The teaser for "Gu Jian" has garnered over 10 million views on Bilibili as of August 21 [2] - The game is set to feature a new protagonist, a "Yin Yang Judge," who uses a "Book of Life and Death" to interact with souls, emphasizing a unique narrative that does not require players to have played previous installments [4][5] Company Overview - Shanghai Zhulong was established in 2007 and is known for its narrative-driven games that draw heavily from Chinese folklore and mythology [2][6] - The company has diversified its portfolio with various game types, including an MMO and a long-term service model game, while maintaining a focus on single-player RPGs [3][6] Investment and Development - "Gu Jian" was initiated in 2021, with Tencent's investment in early 2024 allowing for team expansion and development acceleration, leading to a production phase of approximately two years [6] - Tencent increased its stake in Shanghai Zhulong's parent company, Beijing Wangyuan Shengtang Entertainment Technology Co., from 44.27% to 87.36%, becoming the largest shareholder [6] Market Trends - The announcement of "Gu Jian" coincides with a surge of large single-player games being revealed, indicating a growing interest in this genre within the domestic market [9][10] - The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" has positively influenced consumer spending on other console games, with 66.7% of surveyed users purchasing additional titles alongside it [10]

Group 1 - NetEase's first major single-player game, "Wanmin Changge: Three Kingdoms," was canceled shortly after its demo release, indicating a cautious approach to project viability based on market demand [4][17] - The success of "Black Myth: Wukong" has revitalized the single-player game market in China, showcasing its potential beyond direct sales revenue and changing perceptions about the quality of domestic single-player games [4][5] - The number of new F2P games in China is declining, with a reported drop of over 22% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a challenging environment for free-to-play titles [4][12] Group 2 - The single-player game market in China saw significant growth, with sales reaching approximately 10.22 billion yuan in 2024, largely driven by "Black Myth: Wukong," which alone generated around 9 billion yuan [7][9] - Despite the growth in single-player games, they still lag behind top F2P games in revenue, with "Honor of Kings" generating approximately 2.419 billion USD (about 17.359 billion yuan) in 2024 [9][10] - The cost of developing AAA games has become a significant challenge, with budgets often exceeding 100 million USD, leading to a focus on fewer, more secure projects by major publishers [18][20] Group 3 - The cancellation of "Wanmin Changge: Three Kingdoms" highlights the high development costs associated with single-player games, where a team of 70 could incur costs of around 150 million yuan over three years, necessitating substantial sales to break even [17][21] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards mid-tier 2A games and independent titles as viable options for developers, allowing for better cost control while still delivering creative content [21] - The current landscape suggests that the single-player game market may be entering a favorable era, where both creative aspirations and financial viability can coexist [21]

Core Insights - Chengdu is emerging as a hub for the gaming industry in China, particularly for single-player games, with a significant number of game studios and talent relocating to the city [1][3][4] - The success of the game "Black Myth: Wukong" has highlighted Chengdu's potential, with one-third of the most notable domestic single-player games being developed there [3][4] - Chengdu's gaming industry has a strong foundation due to early investments in talent and infrastructure, dating back to 2003 when the city began promoting the gaming sector [4][5] Industry Overview - Chengdu ranks first in job postings for the gaming industry among top cities in China, according to a report by Zhilian Recruitment [1] - The city has produced a notable number of acclaimed games, with 9 out of 30 highlighted titles in a recent media review originating from Chengdu, surpassing other major cities like Guangzhou and Beijing [3] - The gaming industry in Chengdu benefits from lower living costs and salaries compared to first-tier cities, making it an attractive location for game development [6][7] Cultural and Economic Factors - Chengdu's cultural environment and lifestyle contribute positively to game development, fostering creativity and work-life balance [6][8] - The city has been recognized for its livability, being named one of the "most happy cities" for 16 consecutive years, which enhances its appeal to young professionals in the gaming sector [7][8] - The local gaming industry is characterized by a mix of traditional and innovative themes, with studios exploring both Chinese cultural elements and international narratives [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - NetEase's new game "Return to Tang" has sparked mixed reactions, with international players expressing excitement while domestic players voice skepticism regarding its authenticity as a single-player game and potential monetization strategies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Game Overview and Reception - "Return to Tang" is set during the An Lushan Rebellion in the Tang Dynasty, told from the perspective of an ordinary messenger, and has garnered over 14.4 million views on Bilibili [1]. - The game's trailer has received high praise from overseas players for its graphics, especially in the context of the success of "Black Myth: Wukong," leading to high expectations for another Chinese AAA title [3]. - Conversely, domestic players have raised concerns about the game's potential shift to a monetized model, fearing it may become a service-oriented game despite being marketed as a single-player experience [3][9]. Group 2: Player Concerns and Studio Response - Players have criticized the trailer for lacking sufficient gameplay footage, with many believing that the high proportion of CGI raises doubts about the game's actual quality [8]. - The studio, 24 Studio, has responded by asserting that the trailer consists entirely of real gameplay footage, with 70% being cutscenes and 30% actual gameplay [8]. - Concerns about the game's commercial model persist, as players recall similar past experiences with other titles that transitioned from single-player to multi-platform service games [9]. Group 3: Marketing and Trust Issues - NetEase's history of aggressive marketing tactics has led to a general distrust among players, particularly in the single-player game segment, where players prefer substantial content over marketing hype [4][12]. - The studio's previous titles, such as "Nirvana in Fire," have been associated with over-marketing, which has negatively impacted player trust in new releases [12][13]. - The company aims to rebuild trust by delivering a genuine single-player experience and reducing unnecessary marketing efforts [17]. Group 4: Development Insights and Future Directions - The development of "Return to Tang" has been ongoing since 2018, with a focus on creating a high-quality AAA game, reflecting the studio's commitment to the single-player genre [3][14]. - The studio has engaged with other domestic teams, including the developers of "Black Myth: Wukong," to enhance its development process [16]. - Moving forward, the company is encouraged to showcase more actual gameplay content to alleviate player skepticism and build anticipation for the game's release [19][21].

我前段时间为了回临海也能和哥们一起玩cs2，就买了台游戏本，价格好像是13000左右？今天试了一下用它玩黑猴没问题，fps基本在90-120。 就刚才弹出新闻，黑猴steam销量已经突破300万，加上wegame、epic、ps这几个平台，总销量已经超过450万，销售额超15亿。这么看我昨晚 说的保底500万还是保守了，最终销售量大概率奔着1000万去了。 恭喜游戏科学，这把一鸣惊人，名利双收，中国的第一个3a大作算是彻底成了。 很多没接触过端游的人可能不理解，为什么一个游戏作品能产生那么大的破圈影响力，毕竟卖15亿对于《王者荣耀》而言也就一两个月的营收。单机游戏 天生就是很难挣钱的，黑猴这次是特例中的特例，大部分做单机的团队最后都是穷死的。 但单机游戏在审美格调和文化内涵上又是不可替代的，代表了一个国家游戏工业的硬核实力。 所以你们看到 这 次黑猴项目，除了民间热情似火外，官 方 也给予了积极的肯定， 因为那些 内容监管的官大人们也识 货，知道 氪金瘾品和 第九艺术 之间的差距。 我下午玩了2个半小时，一上来就在大头怪那里卡了接近1小时，我没有按剧本推荐的先拿赤潮，而是头铁死了近20次硬刚过去的。之后的灵虚 ...