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赤子城科技(09911.HK):社交基本盘增势良好 布局短剧等新赛道
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-16 14:25
AI技术赋能与精细化运营,在扩张同时持续提升盈利质量。公司明确以投资回报率为导向,根据产品 不同的发展阶段,平衡增长投入与利润释放,我们维持公司全年调后归母净利润11 亿元的判断。展望 明年,我们认为经营杠杆存在优化空间,尤其是SUGO、TopTop目前因处于扩张期而利润率暂时偏低, 我们认为随市场和产品走向成熟,有望逐步释放利润。 近期我们邀请公司进行非交易型路演,管理层分享了社交、短剧、游戏等新业务发展情况以及后续的战 略展望。 评论 MICO企稳,SUGO和TopTop获客、流水延续高增势头。公司预计4Q至今,MICO组织架构调整后运营 效率提升,收入端环比企稳,YoHo收入保持同比增长,成熟梯队产品持续贡献稳定利润;新产品 SUGO、TopTop目前策略仍以用户规模优先,据SensorTower,4Q至今两者全球MAU同比中高双位数增 长,在德国、法国、巴西等市场快速复制,基于此,我们维持2H社交收入同增30%的判断。展望未 来,我们预计地域扩张下,SUGO和TopTop仍为增长核心,此外,公司有较多新产品储备,公司预计其 中有一款月流水达到旗舰水平,或有望对明后年收入形成支撑。 短剧与游戏作为战略探 ...
中金:维持赤子城科技“跑赢行业”评级 目标价14.5港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 02:05
AI技术赋能与精细化运营,在扩张同时持续提升盈利质量 公司明确以投资回报率为导向,根据产品不同的发展阶段,平衡增长投入与利润释放,该行维持公司全 年调后归母净利润11亿元的判断。展望明年,该行认为经营杠杆存在优化空间,认为随市场和产品走向 成熟,有望逐步释放利润。 短剧与游戏作为战略探索,稳步推进 1)短剧:基于自研和收购,公司正在试水翻译剧与自制剧的全球发行,目前仍处于投入期,存在可控亏 损,公司看好其未来有望与公司社交生态形成协同; 2)游戏:公司预计主力产品合成手游《Alice's Dream》已进入回收周期,后续有望贡献稳定利润,新游 戏目前处于测试阶段,1H26或有望推出,或贡献一定的增量。 中金发布研报称,维持赤子城科技(09911)25和26年收入和盈利预测。维持跑赢行业评级,维持港股目 标价14.5港元,对应14倍的26年Non-IFRS市盈率,较当前有38%的上行空间(当前交易于11.5倍/9.9倍 25/26年Non-IFRS市盈率)。 中金主要观点如下: MICO企稳,SUGO和TopTop获客、流水延续高增势头 公司预计4Q至今,MICO组织架构调整后运营效率提升,收入端环比企稳,Yo ...
中金:维持赤子城科技(09911)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价14.5港元
智通财经网· 2025-12-16 02:01
智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,维持赤子城科技(09911)25和26年收入和盈利预测。维持跑赢行业 评级,维持港股目标价14.5港元,对应14倍的26年Non-IFRS市盈率,较当前有38%的上行空间(当前交 易于11.5倍/9.9倍25/26年Non-IFRS市盈率)。 中金主要观点如下: MICO企稳,SUGO和TopTop获客、流水延续高增势头 公司预计4Q至今,MICO组织架构调整后运营效率提升,收入端环比企稳,YoHo收入保持同比增长, 成熟梯队产品持续贡献稳定利润;新产品SUGO、TopTop目前策略仍以用户规模优先,据Sensor Tower, 4Q至今两者全球MAU同比中高双位数增长,在德国、法国、巴西等市场快速复制,基于此,该行维持 2H社交收入同增30%的判断。展望未来,该行预计地域扩张下,SUGO和TopTop仍为增长核心,此外, 公司有较多新产品储备,公司预计其中有一款月流水达到旗舰水平,或有望对明后年收入形成支撑。 短剧与游戏作为战略探索,稳步推进 1)短剧:基于自研和收购,公司正在试水翻译剧与自制剧的全球发行,目前仍处于投入期,存在可控亏 损,公司看好其未来有望与公司社交生态 ...
赤子城科技(09911.HK):社交业务维持稳健增长 关注游戏、AI、短剧等创新业务进展
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-29 05:48
Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue expected to be between 49.1 and 49.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 37.6% to 39.9% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Social business revenue is projected to be around 43.8 to 44.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 34.5% to 36.4% [1] - Innovative business revenue is expected to be between 5.3 and 5.5 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 69.9% to 76.3% [1] Business Performance - The company’s social business continues to grow steadily, benefiting from AI technology integration in its product matrix, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [1] - A strategic partnership with Tencent Cloud was signed in September 2025 to explore the "AI + social entertainment" space [1] - The company’s core products have solidified their competitive advantage, with SUGO ranking 6th in social network app revenue in the Middle East and TopTop ranking 9th in Google Play game app revenue in the region [1] Innovative Business Growth - The innovative business segment is experiencing robust growth across multiple areas, including: 1. Premium games, with flagship game "Alice's Dream" entering a long-term operational phase since Q4 2024 [1] 2. Steady growth in social e-commerce, with Huoer Health consolidating its leading position in the health service sector [1] 3. Revenue contributions from the actively invested short drama business [1] 4. Launch of the AI creative content community Aippy, marking a forward-looking move in the "AI + social entertainment" field, with its iOS version now live [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its multi-faceted growth strategy in premium games, social e-commerce, short dramas, and AI-native apps, which are anticipated to support long-term development [1]
招商证券国际:予赤子城科技(09911)目标价16.2港元 料保持强劲势头
智通财经网· 2025-09-12 06:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that ZhiZi City Technology (09911) has a target price of HKD 16.2 based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times for the fiscal year 2025/26 and 14 times for the following year [1] - Future catalysts for growth include exceeding user growth expectations, new product launches, and the potential inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect by March 2026 [1] Group 2 - In the social networking segment, both SUGO and TopTop are expected to maintain triple-digit year-on-year growth in revenue and profit in the first half of 2025 [1] - In the innovative business sector, the casual game "Alice's Dream" has turned profitable, with rapid revenue growth, while the social e-commerce business has recorded triple-digit profit growth [1] Group 3 - The firm projects revenues of RMB 6.8 billion and RMB 8.4 billion for the years 2025 and 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 34% and 24% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits are expected to be RMB 1.2 billion and RMB 1.5 billion for the same years, reflecting year-on-year growth of 101% and 24% respectively [1] Group 4 - The firm anticipates that SUGO, TopTop, and other new products will maintain strong momentum, while other existing products will achieve stable single-digit growth [1]
招商证券国际:予赤子城科技目标价16.2港元 料保持强劲势头
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 05:58
Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International sets a target price of HKD 16.2 for ZhiZi City Technology (09911), based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times for the fiscal year 2025/26 and 14 times for the following year [1] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be RMB 6.8 billion and RMB 8.4 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 34% and 24% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.2 billion and RMB 1.5 billion for the same years, indicating year-on-year growth of 101% and 24% respectively [1] Business Segments - The social networking business, including SUGO and TopTop, is anticipated to maintain triple-digit year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit in the first half of 2025 [1] - The innovative business segment has seen the casual game "Alice's Dream" turn profitable, with rapid revenue growth, while the social e-commerce business recorded triple-digit profit growth [1] Future Catalysts - Potential catalysts for growth include exceeding user growth expectations, new product launches, and the possibility of being included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect by March 2026 [1]