一年期中期借贷便利(MLF)

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债市周周谈:债市进攻
2025-10-13 01:00
债市周周谈:债市进攻 20251012 摘要 三季度股市上涨提升全社会风险偏好,压制债市。与 2015 年不同,当 前债市交易盘占比上升,更易受股市行情影响。中美新一轮关税战及股 市高估值带来不确定性,或导致风险偏好下降,利好债市。 预计 2026 年十年期国债收益率可能降至 1.5%。若中美未能达成妥协, 美国加征 100%关税,收益率可能突破 1.6%。央行或提前降息 10- 20BP,政策利率已降至历史低位。 当前股价估值较高,上证指数接近 4,000 点,国家队救援存在不确定性。 央行数据显示国家队可能已减持股票或 ETF,高估值使市场面临较大波 动风险。 中美贸易战升级,美国仅针对中国,不急于妥协。中国面临贸易关系紧 张及其他国家潜在压力,市场波动加剧,风险偏好下降,对科技股牛市 构成挑战,为资金流入债市提供机会。 三季度银行理财资金流向短期存款和超短期信用产品。股市下跌时,机 构被迫减持股票,形成助涨助跌效应。年底考核压力或迫使机构调整持 仓,资金回流长久期信用产品。 Q&A 若政策利率下调 10-20BP,一年期 MLF 利率可能降至 1.4-1.5%,同业 存单利率降至 1.4%左右。经济增速 ...
央行国债交易操作的国际经验与中国路径
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 22:08
Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is gradually incorporating government bond trading into its monetary policy toolkit to manage liquidity and support economic growth, reflecting a cautious approach compared to major developed economies [1][5][8]. Group 1: Central Bank Bond Trading Practices - Major developed economies, including the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, have utilized government bond trading extensively as a tool for liquidity adjustment and quantitative monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis [2][3]. - The scale of government bonds held by central banks in these economies has significantly increased, with the Federal Reserve holding $5.77 trillion in US government bonds by June 2022, accounting for 64.7% of its total assets [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's bond holdings reached approximately $5.3 trillion by the end of 2020, representing 76.5% of its total assets, indicating aggressive bond purchasing strategies [2][3]. Group 2: China's Central Bank Strategy - The PBOC's bond trading strategy is characterized by caution, having only engaged in limited short-term bond trading in specific circumstances over the past decades [5][6]. - As of May 2025, the PBOC held approximately 2.4 trillion yuan (about $338.3 billion) in government bonds, which is significantly lower than the holdings of central banks in developed countries [13][14]. - The PBOC's bond trading is designed to be flexible and responsive, allowing for small-scale, short-term operations to maintain liquidity without causing significant market disruptions [9][14]. Group 3: Future Directions and Policy Focus - The PBOC is expected to maintain a steady pace of increasing its government bond holdings, with a focus on balancing liquidity needs and market stability [16][18]. - There is a need for the PBOC to align its bond trading operations with fiscal policy expansion and the overall economic growth trajectory, ensuring that bond supply meets market demand [19][20]. - The central bank's bond trading operations will likely remain limited by the overall supply of government bonds and the fiscal constraints on debt expansion [15][19].