投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节后累库成交乏力，BR震荡偏弱运行 行情回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-3-2 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：节后累库成交乏力，B R震荡偏弱运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 12 15 1 27% 76 25 3 28 -0 35% 81 74 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，中化泉州石化、海南炼化装置陆续重启，影响周产量环比提升；顺丁橡胶方 | | | | 面，茂名石化顺丁装置且华北部分降负民营装置负荷提升，扬子顺丁短停预计重启，产能利用率提升至高位水平。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: The report gives a rating of "oscillating" for the short - term investment in the synthetic rubber industry, and "long - term bullish" for the long - term [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of butadiene are strong, while the "high - start, high - inventory" situation of butadiene rubber continues. The number of warehouse receipts on the futures market has increased, and the recent futures volume and price have increased simultaneously. In the short term, the large increase in BR, combined with risk premiums, will lead to a phased adjustment of the futures market. In December, the export volume of synthetic rubber is expected to continue to increase, and the import volume of butadiene will decrease month - on - month. With long - term positive expectations, the price of synthetic rubber is expected to have further upward space [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During this period, the price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated strongly, and the spot price range moved up to 11,500 - 12,200 yuan/ton. The butadiene end continued to rise due to good domestic demand and rumors of butadiene export transactions, causing a significant increase in the production cost of butadiene rubber. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber remained high, and most brand spot resources were sufficient. The pressure on the supply side affected the upward movement of the negotiation center. The mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber increased slightly during the week, and the theoretical production profit turned into a loss. Traders actively tried to raise prices, but the downstream terminal procurement was negative and the price - pressing was firm. Although the spot price center gradually moved up, the transaction performance was poor [6]. 3.2 Impact Factors 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [missing data] tons (72%), with a capacity utilization rate of 69.37%; the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [missing data] tons (68%), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. In terms of butadiene, Fujian United Petrochemical (180,000 tons) restarted on the 15th, and Hainan Refining & Chemical (130,000 tons) is expected to shut down at the end of the month. The butadiene production is expected to maintain a downward trend. In terms of butadiene rubber, except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the loads of other butadiene rubber plants are at a high level. The butadiene rubber plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to restart at the end of the month, and the supply will continue to be sufficient [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - For semi - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the market sales became increasingly sluggish, the terminal demand weakened, the channel transactions were sporadic, and the replenishment willingness continued to decrease. The factories launched a certain range of promotions this month, but the market has not yet had a clear guidance. For all - steel tires, in the first ten days of the month, the stocking willingness was low. Some merchants rushed to complete the annual task volume last month, and the inventory expanded significantly, weakening the ability to continuously purchase. Although some factories have clearly announced the profit - sharing policy for January, the inventory during the period is large, and the existing inventory is mainly digested. Some replenishment willingness is postponed to the middle or late ten days of the month [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 44,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.99%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 34,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.50%. In terms of butadiene, although the high - price transactions of refineries were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the downstream raw material inventory was normally consumed. Although the market is expected to be strong in the later period, it is in the inventory reduction cycle. In terms of butadiene rubber, the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises have increased to varying degrees, and the warehouse receipts have increased significantly [4]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 365 yuan/ton, in East China is - 265 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 215 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The spread between RU - BR is 4,020 yuan/ton (12%); the spread between NR - BR is 930 yuan/ton (- 0.53%); the price ratio of BR - SC is - 0.35% [4]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation is 990 yuan/ton; the production gross profit of C4 extraction is 2,680.31 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber is - 237 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin is - 1.92% [4]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - China's CPI year - on - year growth rate in December 2025 reached the fastest in nearly three years; the US ADP employment data in December showed that labor demand was still weak. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that, with the approval of the State Council, Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel will implement a restructuring. Iran is implementing a national - scale network control, which is related to continuous protests in many places. Trump arrested Maduro and summoned enterprises such as ExxonMobil and Chevron to the White House to discuss the oil investment plan in Venezuela. The Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers has fermented again, triggering market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Appropriately leave a long position, and be vigilant against the risk of capital profit - taking and callback. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to watch: downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitics [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Trade frictions have driven up the rubber sector, and the price of BR has been oscillating upwards. Macro - news is causing frequent disturbances. Although the transaction of cis - butadiene rubber has improved slightly due to the price increase, the industry's recent valuation has been repaired and increased. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot transaction rhythm [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 23, 2025, Sinopec's ex - factory price of BR9000 was stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while PetroChina's main sales companies raised the ex - factory price of BR9000 to 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The market price of cis - butadiene rubber declined slightly this week and then remained stagnant. The decline in raw material prices weakened cost support, but market focus shifted to supply. With the expectation of eased international trade frictions and the strengthening of the natural rubber market, the short - term bearish sentiment in the market subsided. Traders actively tried to raise prices, and PetroChina's sales companies raised supply prices. Downstream buyers continued to purchase at low prices and were firm in bargaining. Although the supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were high and some brands had firm offers due to tight spot resources, private resources still had price advantages, leading to good large - order transactions in the first and middle of the week, but the inquiry atmosphere weakened in the second half of the week [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Butadiene - Last week, domestic butadiene production was [missing data], with a capacity utilization rate of [missing data]. Several major plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and others maintained a shutdown state. Although the plants of Fushun Petrochemical and Beifang Huajin restarted, the output within the week was limited, resulting in a slight decline in production [4]. 3.2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant was under maintenance, and Qilu Petrochemical's plant restarted after maintenance. Additionally, Sichuan Petrochemical, Zhenhua New Materials, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical all had regular maintenance plans [4]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Semi - Steel Tires - During the period, market demand increased. With the cooling and snowfall in Northeast and Inner Mongolia, the sales of snow tires increased, and the market replenishment demand rose. The trading between channels and terminal stores was good. The all - season tire market performed steadily, with regular channel sales and weakly stable prices [4]. 3.3.2 All - Steel Tires - The replacement market showed average performance. Some manufacturers withdrew promotional policies, and the market acceptance was limited. Channel prices were mainly stable, with some product agents raising quotes, but actual transactions continued at previous prices considering channel stability. Terminal demand was weak, and some transactions still had flexible promotional policies [4]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis 3.4.1 Butadiene - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 2.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.13%. The enterprise inventory increased month - on - month. Some downstream plants in East China stopped for maintenance, causing a slight fluctuation in butadiene inventory. The port inventory decreased significantly month - on - month due to limited ship arrivals and low tradable volume, leading to a phased reduction in inventory [4]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 3.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The strengthening of natural rubber drove up the mainstream supply price of synthetic rubber. Some manufacturers stocked up, resulting in an overall increase in enterprise inventory and a decrease in trader inventory [4]. 3.5 Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 270 yuan/ton, in East China was - 120 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 70 yuan/ton. The RU - BR spread was 4,215 yuan/ton (an increase of 11.80%), the NR - BR spread was 1,385 yuan/ton (an increase of 6.54%), and the BR - SC ratio was - 0.70% [4]. 3.6 Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 154 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit through C4 extraction was 1,594.88 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 48 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 0.43% [4]. 3.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents at the Budapest Summit in Hungary was postponed, and no meeting plan has been arranged yet. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, causing continuous market news disturbances. Europe and the US have imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India has re - planned its energy procurement plan [4]. 3.8 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The market is expected to oscillate upwards. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical factors [4].