Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of September 11, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9475 yuan/ton, down by 75 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1095 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -3200 yuan/ton, unchanged; basis is 145 yuan/ton, up by 65 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In August, China's butadiene production was 456,800 tons, up by 0.7% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 135,700 tons, up by 5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 58.06 million units, down by 1.1% month-on-month, but up by 4.4% year-on-year for January to August; full-steel tire production was 13.03 million units, up by 1% month-on-month, and up by 2.8% year-on-year for January to August [2] - As of September 11, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry show differentiation: butadiene industry operating rate is 68.3%, down by 0.2% month-on-month; high-styrene butadiene rubber industry operating rate is 73.5%, down by 3.5% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 72.6%, up by 8.5% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 66.3%, up by 9.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of September 10, butadiene port inventory is 25,600 tons, down by 5,350 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 26,300 tons, up by 1,650 tons, an increase of 6.7% month-on-month; traders' inventory is 8,210 tons, up by 950 tons, an increase of 13.1% month-on-month [3] Market Insights - According to Longzhong Information on September 11, during the current cycle (September 4-10), domestic butadiene sample total inventory slightly decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 9.04%. Among them, sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 0.81% week-on-week, with sporadic device shutdowns or reduced load, and no significant inventory pressure from domestic manufacturers. Sample port inventory decreased by 17.29% week-on-week, with limited import shipments arriving at the port during the week, and downstream raw material inventory being normally digested, leading to a decline from last week's high point. However, there are still expectations for incoming shipments and some trade volumes for sale, necessitating cautious monitoring of inventory changes [4] Analysis - On September 11, BR followed the daily fluctuations of natural rubber, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2510 closing at 11,655 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the previous day's settlement price. On the cost side, there is no significant pressure on butadiene supply in early to mid-September, while some downstream industries are expected to see a decline in operating rates. However, with concentrated arrivals of European shipments in September, the expected import volume remains relatively abundant, making it difficult for port inventory to drop to previous low levels. On the supply side, Haopu New Materials and Taiwan Rubber's styrene-butadiene rubber facilities are scheduled for maintenance in September, and some facilities in East China are also expected to undergo maintenance in October, indicating a clear expectation of reduced supply in the short to medium term. On the demand side, overall capacity utilization rates are recovering, and companies are expected to stock up inventory ahead of the National Day holiday, with capacity utilization running at a relatively high level. Overall, BR cost support is limited, and the supply-demand situation for BR remains loose, likely following fluctuations in natural rubber and commodities [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to enter a high-level oscillation phase, waiting for a direction decision. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. - The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season, and it is recommended to refer to the price range. For other non-ferrous metals, different trading strategies are given according to their respective fundamentals [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions [2]. - For special commodities, trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - In the new energy sector, it is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is expected to enter high-level oscillation. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. It is advisable to lightly test long positions on bond futures during pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy gold options and construct a bull spread strategy. Silver long positions should be held above $38 [2]. Commodity Sector - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions on the October contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: For steel products, it is possible to try long positions as the apparent demand has stopped falling and rebounded. For iron ore, it is recommended to go long at low prices in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to a sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, coking coal futures are expected to rebound. It is recommended to go long at low prices. Coke is also recommended to go long at low prices as the coking profit continues to repair [2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Copper is expected to see inventory depletion near the peak season. Different trading strategies are given for other non-ferrous metals according to their fundamentals [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different trading strategies are provided for each variety based on their supply and demand, cost, and other factors, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for each variety according to their market conditions, such as going long, shorting, or waiting and seeing [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Trading strategies such as taking partial profits on previous short positions and going short at high prices are proposed [2]. - **New Energy**: It is recommended to wait and see for polysilicon and lithium carbonate [2].

Price and Market Trends - As of July 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9350 (-150) CNY/ton, while the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1100 (+0) USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11900 (-250) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2700 (-150) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 65 (-130) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, down 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The operating rate for the butadiene industry is 70%, up 3% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.6%, up 5.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 23, butadiene port inventory is 15,700 tons, down 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,850 tons, down 800 tons, a decrease of 3.1% [3] - Trader inventory stands at 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons, up 13.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 29, Qixiang Tengda (002408) has its 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit operating normally, with plans for a 10-day maintenance shutdown in early August [4] Market Analysis - On July 29, commodity bullish sentiment has cooled, with BR continuing to decline; the main contract BR2509 closed at 11,835 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous settlement price [5] - Despite low port inventory supporting butadiene prices, multiple domestic facilities are set to restart, leading to an expected increase in butadiene supply [5] - Demand for tires remains weak, with high inventory levels hindering tire operating rates; overall, short-term cost support exists, but BR supply-demand is loose, limiting upward potential [5]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 15, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1070 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2530 yuan/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber - Thai mix, and a basis of 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 10, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry show differentiation: butadiene industry operating rate is 68.9%, a decrease of 2.8% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate is 65.5%, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 65.8%, an increase of 2.6% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 61.1%, a decrease of 0.7% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 9, butadiene port inventory is 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month; traders' inventory is 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons, a decrease of 7.8% month-on-month [3] Industry News - Longzhong Information reported on July 15 that Heze Kexin Chemical Co., Ltd. has an 80,000 tons/year nickel-based high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit that was shut down for maintenance on May 24 and is scheduled to restart within the week. Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since the end of May and is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 15, commodity prices fell, leading to a pullback in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Recent maintenance of some butadiene units and limited ship cargo replenishment have supported butadiene prices due to low port inventory, but multiple domestic units are scheduled to restart in mid to late July, with Jilin Petrochemical's new unit expected to start operation around July 20. On the supply side, as butadiene prices decline, the profit margin for styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to recover, limiting the downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber operating rates. On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates. Overall, short-term cost stabilization is expected, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance, and BR prices are expected to fluctuate [5]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 8, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1060 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2400 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The basis is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 4, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 70.9%, an increase of 1.7% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene-butadiene rubber was 67%, an increase of 0.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 64.1%, a decrease of 8.9% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers was 61.5%, a decrease of 1.1% [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 2, butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons [3] - The internal inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons, or 4.7% [3] - The inventory held by traders was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons, or 6.8% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 7, Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high-styrene-butadiene rubber unit, which has been under maintenance since late May, is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 8, there was a sudden impact on upstream facilities in East China, leading to a rebound in butadiene prices and a significant increase in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,305 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.49% [5] - The cost side is supported by the restart of the butadiene unit at Lianyungang Petrochemical, with plans for the restart of the unit at Lucheng Petrochemical in mid-July [5] - Multiple butadiene units in Europe have also restarted, and an increase in butadiene exports from the U.S. to Asia is expected, with more ocean freight arriving at ports [5] - However, short-term butadiene port inventory is low, providing support for butadiene prices [5] - On the supply side, as butadiene gradually weakens, the profit margins for styrene-butadiene rubber are expected to recover, limiting the downward space for operating rates [5] - On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates [5] - Overall, the short-term cost side remains supported, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, and the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to expectations of short-term fluctuations in BR prices [5]

【原料及现货】 截至6月16日，丁二烯山东市场价9500（+150）元/吨；丁二烯CIF中国价格1080（+0）美元/吨；顺丁橡 胶（BR9000）山东齐鲁石化（600002）市场价11800（+200）元/吨，顺丁橡胶-泰混价差-2050（+230） 元/吨，基差235(+25)元/吨。 截至6月12日，顺丁橡胶产业上、中游与下游开工率均下降，其中，丁二烯行业开工率为69%，环比 +1%；高顺顺丁橡胶行业开工率为65%，环比-3.1%；半钢胎样本厂家开工率为70%，环比+9.3%；全钢 胎样本厂家开工率58.7%，环比+5.5%。 【库存】 截至6月11日，丁二烯港口库存21000吨，环比-6000吨；顺丁橡胶厂内库存为27650吨，较上期-650吨， 环比-2.3%；贸易商库存为6210吨，较上期+530吨，环比+9.33%。 隆众资讯6月12日报道：本周期（20250605-0611），国内丁二烯样本总库存继续下降，环比上周下降 8.88%。其中样本企业库存环比上周小幅增加3.91%，有样本企业装置结束检修，库存显著增加，且有 零星下游装置降负，影响上游原料库存略有增量。样本港口库存环比下降22.22% ...

Raw Materials and Spot Market - As of April 21, the price of high cis-butadiene rubber in Shandong, based on Daqing BR9000, closed at 11,450 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton compared to the previous period, contrary to earlier expectations [1] - The trading atmosphere has slightly improved compared to last week, although most prices remain in a backwardation state [1] Production and Operating Rates - In March, China's butadiene production was 460,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.9%; the production of high cis-butadiene rubber was 128,300 tons, up 14.8% month-on-month [2] - The operating rates for the butadiene industry were 74.1%, down 0.6%; for high cis-butadiene rubber, the rate was 62.8%, up 3.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 74.2%, down 0.3%, while for full-steel tire manufacturers, it was 67.4%, up 0.3% [2] Inventory Levels - As of April 16, butadiene port inventory was 35,600 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the factory inventory of high cis-butadiene rubber was 27,710 tons, up 560 tons, a 2.1% increase [3] - The inventory held by traders was 4,370 tons, a decrease of 330 tons, down 7% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on April 21, Shandong Weite Chemical Co., Ltd. plans to restart its 50,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber unit within the week [4] Market Analysis - On April 21, the rubber sector rebounded along with commodities, with the main contract for synthetic rubber BR2505 closing at 11,195 CNY/ton, a rise of 1.77% [5] - The supply of butadiene remains ample, with two butadiene units scheduled for maintenance in late April, but new capacities from ExxonMobil and Wanhua are expected to supplement the market [5] - Demand for new orders is weak, compounded by high finished product inventories, leading to a decline in semi-steel tire operating rates and low full-steel tire operating rates [5] - Natural rubber production in Yunnan is normal, and the tapping process in Hainan is in line with seasonal expectations, with overall tapping expectations in Thailand remaining strong [5] - The ongoing "tariff war" adds to market uncertainty, which is expected to remain high [5] Operational Recommendations - The recommendation for short-term trading is to short BR2505 on rallies, with a short-term outlook indicating a downward trend [6]