欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 本周将举行杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会,下半年货币 IF2509 政策方向对权益市场影响关键,而A股近一月涨幅 板块呈现轮动,A股温和调整 IH2509 股指 较大,预计进入高位震荡等待方向抉择。推荐买入 IC2509 看跌期权保护多头仓位,或阶段性部分止盈此前仓 IM2509 位。 目前观察债市情绪有望继续企稳,短期10年期国 T2512 债利率在1.78%-1.8%%附近可能是阶段利率上行 TF2512 股市回调期债继续回升,超长债涨幅居前 的阻力位,对应T2512合约在107.4-107.6附近 国侦 金融 TS2512 有支撑,不过短期行情预期仍有震荡,单边策略上 TL2512 期债逢回调或可轻仓试多。 黄金震荡偏强,建议买入黄金期权 AU2510 美国关税威胁升温美联储"独立性"面临挑战 美元回落黄金走 贵金属 AIU2512C776卖出AU2512C792构建牛市价 AG2510 型 差策略;白银多单在38美元上方继续持有 集运指数 偏弱震荡,10合约空单继续持有 EC2510 EC主力走势偏弱 (欧线) 10合约热卷和螺纹做多分别参考3140和 ...

Price and Market Trends - As of July 29, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9350 (-150) CNY/ton, while the CIF price for butadiene in China is 1100 (+0) USD/ton [1] - The market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong is 11900 (-250) CNY/ton, with a price difference of -2700 (-150) CNY/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber and a basis of 65 (-130) CNY/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, down 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The operating rate for the butadiene industry is 70%, up 3% month-on-month; the operating rate for high-styrene butadiene rubber is 67.6%, up 5.2% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 23, butadiene port inventory is 15,700 tons, down 4,300 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 24,850 tons, down 800 tons, a decrease of 3.1% [3] - Trader inventory stands at 7,470 tons, an increase of 870 tons, up 13.2% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 29, Qixiang Tengda (002408) has its 90,000 tons/year high-styrene butadiene rubber unit operating normally, with plans for a 10-day maintenance shutdown in early August [4] Market Analysis - On July 29, commodity bullish sentiment has cooled, with BR continuing to decline; the main contract BR2509 closed at 11,835 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous settlement price [5] - Despite low port inventory supporting butadiene prices, multiple domestic facilities are set to restart, leading to an expected increase in butadiene supply [5] - Demand for tires remains weak, with high inventory levels hindering tire operating rates; overall, short-term cost support exists, but BR supply-demand is loose, limiting upward potential [5]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 15, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1070 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2530 yuan/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber - Thai mix, and a basis of 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 10, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry show differentiation: butadiene industry operating rate is 68.9%, a decrease of 2.8% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate is 65.5%, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 65.8%, an increase of 2.6% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 61.1%, a decrease of 0.7% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 9, butadiene port inventory is 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month; traders' inventory is 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons, a decrease of 7.8% month-on-month [3] Industry News - Longzhong Information reported on July 15 that Heze Kexin Chemical Co., Ltd. has an 80,000 tons/year nickel-based high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit that was shut down for maintenance on May 24 and is scheduled to restart within the week. Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since the end of May and is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 15, commodity prices fell, leading to a pullback in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Recent maintenance of some butadiene units and limited ship cargo replenishment have supported butadiene prices due to low port inventory, but multiple domestic units are scheduled to restart in mid to late July, with Jilin Petrochemical's new unit expected to start operation around July 20. On the supply side, as butadiene prices decline, the profit margin for styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to recover, limiting the downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber operating rates. On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates. Overall, short-term cost stabilization is expected, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance, and BR prices are expected to fluctuate [5]

Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 8, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1060 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2400 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The basis is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 4, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 70.9%, an increase of 1.7% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene-butadiene rubber was 67%, an increase of 0.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 64.1%, a decrease of 8.9% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers was 61.5%, a decrease of 1.1% [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 2, butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons [3] - The internal inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons, or 4.7% [3] - The inventory held by traders was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons, or 6.8% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 7, Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high-styrene-butadiene rubber unit, which has been under maintenance since late May, is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 8, there was a sudden impact on upstream facilities in East China, leading to a rebound in butadiene prices and a significant increase in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,305 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.49% [5] - The cost side is supported by the restart of the butadiene unit at Lianyungang Petrochemical, with plans for the restart of the unit at Lucheng Petrochemical in mid-July [5] - Multiple butadiene units in Europe have also restarted, and an increase in butadiene exports from the U.S. to Asia is expected, with more ocean freight arriving at ports [5] - However, short-term butadiene port inventory is low, providing support for butadiene prices [5] - On the supply side, as butadiene gradually weakens, the profit margins for styrene-butadiene rubber are expected to recover, limiting the downward space for operating rates [5] - On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates [5] - Overall, the short-term cost side remains supported, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, and the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to expectations of short-term fluctuations in BR prices [5]