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合成橡胶数据日报-20250814
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 06:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market has seen minor adjustments. The short - term supply side shows no pressure, with some suppliers' prices remaining firm, but downstream procurement is still based on rigid demand. The domestic butadiene price is around 9400 - 9550 yuan/ton in some areas, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is around 9200 yuan/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has been raised by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. Market quotations fluctuate greatly, but spot transactions are sluggish, especially after the late - session correction, with low terminal entry willingness. The price of private cis - butadiene rubber in the northern region is around 11600 - 11700 yuan/ton [3]. - For strategy operations, on the single - side, the macro - sentiment has weakened, and the br contract is consolidating. For arbitrage, after the spread widens again, consider going long BR and shorting RU or NR [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions of Butadiene and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - **Butadiene**: The closing price of the domestic BR2509.SHF is 11750 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the settlement price is 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The trading volume is 80181, up 33.53%, and the open interest is 26557, down 0.49%. The international butadiene price has different changes, such as the FD Northwest Europe price down 0.62% to 800 dollars/ton and the FOB Europe price up 2.53% to 810 dollars/ton [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The ex - factory price has increased, but the spot transaction is slow. The inventory of merchants has increased by 1.47% to 24150 tons, while the inventory of traders has decreased by 3.06% to 7290 tons. The production has decreased by 5.93% to 2.74 million tons [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months of butadiene rubber futures have significant changes, such as the "continuous one - continuous two" spread down 400% to - 15 yuan/ton and the "continuous two - continuous three" spread up 100% to 0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The BR - RU spread is - 4050 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the BR - NR spread is - 860 yuan/ton, down 2.38%. The spreads between different varieties also show certain fluctuations, like the butadiene - BR spread and the styrene - butadiene - BR spread [3]. Industry Chain Costs and Profits - **Butadiene**: The cost of carbon - four extraction is 7086.46 yuan/ton, down 1.19%, and the profit is 2313.54 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The cost and profit of oxidative dehydrogenation remain unchanged [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The cost is 12182 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 682 yuan/ton. The production rate has decreased by 5.93% [3].