Report Overview - The report is a daily data report on synthetic rubber, focusing on the domestic butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber markets [2][3] Key Points Market Conditions - **Domestic Butadiene Market**: On November 4, the domestic butadiene market continued its downward trend. The supply was abundant, and the downstream rigid demand couldn't provide effective support. The price in Shandong Luzhong area was around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 6600 yuan/ton [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Market**: The capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.50%, a decrease of 2.79 percentage points from the previous working day. The theoretical production profit of cis - butadiene rubber increased significantly to 893 yuan/ton [3] Price Changes - **Butadiene**: The price of Sinopec East China butadiene decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The ex - factory price of Sinopec Chemical Sales cis - butadiene rubber remained stable at 10500 yuan/ton [3] Market Expectations - Most industry players expect the cost of cis - butadiene rubber to continue to decline due to the expected increase in butadiene supply and low - price transactions of South Korean butadiene resources. The market generally expects the supply price of Sinopec and PetroChina's cis - butadiene rubber to be further reduced [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: The BR contract is expected to consolidate [3] - **Arbitrage**: After the spread widens again, consider going long on BR and short on RU or NR [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating" [4]. 2. Core View of the Report - Trade frictions have driven up the rubber sector, and the price of BR has been oscillating upwards. Macro - news is causing frequent disturbances. Although the transaction of cis - butadiene rubber has improved slightly due to the price increase, the industry's recent valuation has been repaired and increased. However, attention should still be paid to the impact of changes in production start - up and inventory clearance progress on the spot transaction rhythm [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of October 23, 2025, Sinopec's ex - factory price of BR9000 was stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while PetroChina's main sales companies raised the ex - factory price of BR9000 to 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The market price of cis - butadiene rubber declined slightly this week and then remained stagnant. The decline in raw material prices weakened cost support, but market focus shifted to supply. With the expectation of eased international trade frictions and the strengthening of the natural rubber market, the short - term bearish sentiment in the market subsided. Traders actively tried to raise prices, and PetroChina's sales companies raised supply prices. Downstream buyers continued to purchase at low prices and were firm in bargaining. Although the supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina were high and some brands had firm offers due to tight spot resources, private resources still had price advantages, leading to good large - order transactions in the first and middle of the week, but the inquiry atmosphere weakened in the second half of the week [7]. 3.2 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Butadiene - Last week, domestic butadiene production was [missing data], with a capacity utilization rate of [missing data]. Several major plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and others maintained a shutdown state. Although the plants of Fushun Petrochemical and Beifang Huajin restarted, the output within the week was limited, resulting in a slight decline in production [4]. 3.2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Yangzi Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant was under maintenance, and Qilu Petrochemical's plant restarted after maintenance. Additionally, Sichuan Petrochemical, Zhenhua New Materials, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical all had regular maintenance plans [4]. 3.3 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Semi - Steel Tires - During the period, market demand increased. With the cooling and snowfall in Northeast and Inner Mongolia, the sales of snow tires increased, and the market replenishment demand rose. The trading between channels and terminal stores was good. The all - season tire market performed steadily, with regular channel sales and weakly stable prices [4]. 3.3.2 All - Steel Tires - The replacement market showed average performance. Some manufacturers withdrew promotional policies, and the market acceptance was limited. Channel prices were mainly stable, with some product agents raising quotes, but actual transactions continued at previous prices considering channel stability. Terminal demand was weak, and some transactions still had flexible promotional policies [4]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis 3.4.1 Butadiene - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 2.46 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.13%. The enterprise inventory increased month - on - month. Some downstream plants in East China stopped for maintenance, causing a slight fluctuation in butadiene inventory. The port inventory decreased significantly month - on - month due to limited ship arrivals and low tradable volume, leading to a phased reduction in inventory [4]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 3.317 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The strengthening of natural rubber drove up the mainstream supply price of synthetic rubber. Some manufacturers stocked up, resulting in an overall increase in enterprise inventory and a decrease in trader inventory [4]. 3.5 Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 270 yuan/ton, in East China was - 120 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 70 yuan/ton. The RU - BR spread was 4,215 yuan/ton (an increase of 11.80%), the NR - BR spread was 1,385 yuan/ton (an increase of 6.54%), and the BR - SC ratio was - 0.70% [4]. 3.6 Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 154 yuan/ton, and the production gross profit through C4 extraction was 1,594.88 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 48 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 0.43% [4]. 3.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clarified the development goals and key tasks for the 15th Five - Year Plan period. The meeting between the US and Russian presidents at the Budapest Summit in Hungary was postponed, and no meeting plan has been arranged yet. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, causing continuous market news disturbances. Europe and the US have imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India has re - planned its energy procurement plan [4]. 3.8 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: The market is expected to oscillate upwards. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical factors [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market has seen minor adjustments. The short - term supply side shows no pressure, with some suppliers' prices remaining firm, but downstream procurement is still based on rigid demand. The domestic butadiene price is around 9400 - 9550 yuan/ton in some areas, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is around 9200 yuan/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has been raised by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. Market quotations fluctuate greatly, but spot transactions are sluggish, especially after the late - session correction, with low terminal entry willingness. The price of private cis - butadiene rubber in the northern region is around 11600 - 11700 yuan/ton [3]. - For strategy operations, on the single - side, the macro - sentiment has weakened, and the br contract is consolidating. For arbitrage, after the spread widens again, consider going long BR and shorting RU or NR [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions of Butadiene and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - **Butadiene**: The closing price of the domestic BR2509.SHF is 11750 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the settlement price is 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The trading volume is 80181, up 33.53%, and the open interest is 26557, down 0.49%. The international butadiene price has different changes, such as the FD Northwest Europe price down 0.62% to 800 dollars/ton and the FOB Europe price up 2.53% to 810 dollars/ton [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The ex - factory price has increased, but the spot transaction is slow. The inventory of merchants has increased by 1.47% to 24150 tons, while the inventory of traders has decreased by 3.06% to 7290 tons. The production has decreased by 5.93% to 2.74 million tons [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months of butadiene rubber futures have significant changes, such as the "continuous one - continuous two" spread down 400% to - 15 yuan/ton and the "continuous two - continuous three" spread up 100% to 0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The BR - RU spread is - 4050 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the BR - NR spread is - 860 yuan/ton, down 2.38%. The spreads between different varieties also show certain fluctuations, like the butadiene - BR spread and the styrene - butadiene - BR spread [3]. Industry Chain Costs and Profits - **Butadiene**: The cost of carbon - four extraction is 7086.46 yuan/ton, down 1.19%, and the profit is 2313.54 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The cost and profit of oxidative dehydrogenation remain unchanged [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The cost is 12182 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 682 yuan/ton. The production rate has decreased by 5.93% [3].