作者丨叶麦穗 唐婧 编辑丨杨希 追高追到山顶上，这或是近期在场内投资国投白银LOF基金投资人的共同心声。 由于白银价 格大幅波动，国投白银LOF基金已经连续三个跌停了，不过即使如此，目前的溢价仍然高达 64.6%。 "白银今年涨得实在是太猛了，盘中一度涨幅超过6成，1月底忍不住追高了场内的国投白银 LOF基金，前两天还高兴，但是这几天要哭了，天天跌停，从现在的抛压来看，短时间内估计 跌停板难以打开。"广州的一名投资人罗女士向记者抱怨。 其实在上周五和本周一的大跌之后，白银正在大幅"收复失地"，目前现货白银已经逼近88美 元/盎司，但是国投白银LOF基金仍在"跌跌不休"，造成这一"惨案"的原因主要是由于场内溢 价过大。 国投瑞银基金也在公告中对此解释，白银作为国际定价品种，境外主流市场银价决定了底层资 产（上期所白银期货合约）的真实价值。在近期国际银价单日波动远超常规的情况下，继续沿 用国内期货结算价可能导致净值无法及时反映资产真实公允价值。 有分析认为，国投瑞银此举并不是毫无道理，如果不调整估值， 会出现"早赎回少损失"的情 况，即当日赎回，只损失17%，但是另外14.5%的损失就由剩余持有人承担，如果是大额 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in the net value of Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures (LOF) A/C funds, with a record single-day decline of 31.5%, has raised concerns about the fund's valuation and market stability [1][4][7]. Fund Performance Summary - The latest net values for Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures (LOF) A and C are 2.2494 yuan and 2.2290 yuan respectively, compared to 3.2838 yuan and 3.2542 yuan on January 30, marking a drastic decrease [1][2][4]. - The fund has been suspended for subscription following the drastic drop in net value [2][4]. Fund Management Response - Guotou Ruijin Fund Management explained the necessity of adjusting the fund's valuation due to the significant drop in international silver prices, which was not reflected in the domestic market due to the ±17% price limit [7][8]. - The company emphasized that maintaining the previous inflated net value would mislead investors about actual risks and unfairly burden remaining investors with potential losses [7]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The fund has experienced consecutive trading halts, with expectations of further declines in the coming days, potentially facing "3-5 more trading halts" [5][6]. - The management's decision to delay the announcement of valuation adjustments was based on the timing of price determination and concerns about causing panic among investors [8].

这种"估值滞后"隐藏着更大的风险。若继续使用未调整的估值，就可能导致先赎回的投资者以"虚高"净 值退出。公司强调，对于当日赎回的投资者而言，赎回的基金资产本身的实际价值已经远远低于上期所 白银期货合约的价格。 二是为何没有提前公告？基金的净值是基于每日收盘后的资产价格计算得出的。这意味着，在交易时间 结束前，基金的实际价值本身是一个"未知数"。如果提前公告，公司担心被解读为有意引导投资者不要 赎回，进而推测基金资产流动性出现严重问题，引发市场恐慌，出现挤兑。基于价格确定时点、公平性 考量等原因，公募基金行业的惯例也是在估值调整方案确定后再发布公告。 国投白银LOF昨晚调整估值导致单日净值下跌31.5%，引发投资者质疑。对此，国投瑞银基金进行了回 应： 一是为何调整估值？公司表示，白银作为国际定价的投资品种，其价格并不简单由国内市场决 定，境外主流市场银价决定了本基金底层资产(上期所白银期货合约)的真实价值。日常采用"当日期货 合约的结算价"作为基金净值的估算基础。但是国际白银市场价格出现史诗级暴跌，单日波动幅度远超 常规情况。如果继续沿用上期所白银期货的结算价估值，基金净值将显著高于底层资产在国际市场的真 实 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver supply mainly comes from mineral production and recycling, while demand includes industrial use, investment use, photographic use, and jewelry use. The silver inventory - to - demand ratio exceeds 100%, resulting in limited impact of supply - demand gap changes on prices. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio is negatively correlated with copper prices and rises during the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cutting cycle [13][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Chain - **Supply and Demand Composition** - Supply is divided into mining, recycling, and official sales. Demand mainly consists of industrial use, investment demand, photographic applications, and jewelry manufacturing. In terms of percentages, supply is 81.0% from mining, 18.7% from recycling, 0.1% from official sales, and 0.1% from net hedging supply. Demand is 58% for industrial use, 2% for photography, 17% for jewelry, 5% for silverware, and 18% for net physical investment [20][23]. - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Million ounces)** - From 2021 - 2025F, total supply ranges from 1,023 to 1,031, with mine production between 831 - 835 and recycling between 184 - 194. Total demand ranges from 1,103 to 1,148, with industrial demand (total) between 564 - 681. The market balance is negative throughout the period, and the silver price (London price) is 25 in 2021, 22 in 2022, 23 in 2023, 28 in 2024, and 0 in 2025F [24]. - **China Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Million ounces)** - From 2021 - 2024, total supply ranges from 146 to 150, with mine production between 110 - 113 and recycling between 33 - 40. Total demand ranges from 184 to 298, with industrial demand (total) between 152 - 275. The market balance is negative throughout the period, and the silver price (London price) is 25 in 2021, 22 in 2022, 23 in 2023, and 28 in 2024 [26]. 3.2 Silver Contract - **SGE Margin Contracts** - The contract code is Ag(T + D), with a trading unit of 1 kg/lot, a quotation unit of yuan/kg, and a minimum price fluctuation of 1 yuan/kg. Trading hours are from 9:00 - 15:30 during the day and 19:50 - 02:30 at night. The contract has a continuous trading term, and physical delivery is of silver ingots with a standard weight of 15 kg and a fineness not less than 99.99% [33]. - **SHFE Futures Contract** - The trading unit is 15 kilograms/lot, the price quotation is yuan (RMB)/gram, and the minimum price fluctuation is 1 yuan/gram. The contract months are from 1 - 12. The last trading day is the 15th day of the contract month (adjusted for holidays), and the delivery period is two consecutive business days after the last trading day. The minimum trade margin is 4% of the contract value [36]. - **Silver Price Spread** - The price spread is calculated as SGE Silver – Loco London/31.1035 (troy ounce) * VAT rate * RMB exchange rate [44]. 3.3 Pricing Model - **Limited Sensitivity to Supply - Demand Fluctuations** - With the silver inventory - to - demand ratio exceeding 100% and a relatively high absolute inventory level, fluctuations in the supply - demand gap have a diminished impact on prices [51]. - **Gold Sets the Trend, with Industrial Demand Shaping Price Sensitivity** - Silver's absolute price follows gold. The gold - silver ratio, which indicates relative elasticity, is negatively correlated with copper prices, mainly because silver's industrial properties are affected by the macro - demand cycle [55]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio and Monetary Policy Cycle** - During the Federal Reserve's rate - cutting cycle, the gold - silver ratio rises [56].