本报记者 许林艳 肖伟 据了解，当这些基本金属市场波动或价格低迷时，矿山开发意愿下降，会直接拖累白银的伴生供应。"即便银价上涨，矿 企也很难在短期内为白银单独扩大产能。白银的提炼还需要看冶炼企业的技术能力强弱和综合成本的高低。"陈湘军说道。 近段时间以来，贵金属的持续涨势引发市场广泛关注。黄金价格不断攀升之外，白银价格也屡创新高，且年内涨幅比黄金 更为强劲。 10月9日，现货白银价格突破50美元/盎司，为历史首次。10月10日，据东方财富Choice数据，白银开盘价报46.67美元/盎 司，最高达51.38美元/盎司，年内涨幅超70%。 浙商证券研报表示，当前白银的核心矛盾点在于趋势性减少的库存与贵金属牛市下日益提升的白银投资机会。 "当前，矿端供给已进入刚性区间，全球白银矿产供给目前面临增长瓶颈。2019年至2024年间，全球矿产银产量不仅没有 增长，反而略有下降。"湖南白银股份有限公司董秘袁志勇在接受《证券日报》记者采访时说道。据了解，这背后有两个核心 原因，一是矿石品位持续下滑，这意味着要获得同样多的白银，需要开采和加工更多的矿石，直接推高了单位生产成本。二是 全球矿端扰动频发，主要产区的大型银矿常受到 ...

10月8日上午，现货黄金突破4000美元/盎司大关，持续创新高，年内涨幅超52%，COMEX黄金也已突破4000美元关口。 | W | COMEX黄金 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | | | 4019.9 | | 昨结 | 4004.4 | 总手 | | 3.16万 | | +15.5 | +0.39% 开盘 | | 4007.1 | 现手 | | 7 | | 最高价 | 4020.9 | 持 仓 | 39.12万 | 外 盘 | | 1.48万 | | 最低价 | 4005.6 | 仓 增 | -217 | 内 | | 1.67万 | | 分时 | 五日 | 日K | | 月K | 車を | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:4014.7 | | | | 4020 | | | | --- 0:41%- == | 4020.1 | 1 | | | | | | र्दे | 4019.9 | 3 | | | | | | | 21:54 4020.3 | 1 | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown on October 1, 2025, has disrupted the flow of critical economic data, impacting decision-making for policymakers and investors [1][3][4] - Key economic indicators such as the monthly employment report and unemployment data are now delayed, leading to uncertainty in assessing the health of the economy [3][6][10] - The Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges in formulating monetary policy due to the lack of timely and accurate economic data, which is essential for balancing inflation control and employment stability [6][8][10] Group 2 - The market is experiencing heightened volatility as investors react to the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index showing a notable increase [10][11] - Companies that rely on government contracts, such as construction and technology firms, are facing reduced orders and delayed payments, leading to declining stock prices and diminished investor confidence [11][10] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to fixed-income assets and maintain cash reserves to navigate the turbulent market conditions effectively [13][14]

人民日报海外版记者 汪文正 在贵金属投资消费领域，白银、铂金一直被视为黄金的重要"平替"。今年以来，受地缘政治、美联 储降息预期等影响，金价持续走高，伦敦现货黄金价格日前突破3650美元/盎司，上海黄金交易所 Au99.99黄金现货价格盘中突破830元/克，国内市场主流品牌金饰价格普遍超过1000元/克。金价上涨， 带动白银、铂金等贵金属消费、投资热度显著上升。 "十一"假期前后，是传统婚庆贵金属消费旺季，刚性需求支撑较强。正在备婚的广西壮族自治区桂 林市民刘女士告诉记者，由于近期金价较高，她和未婚夫选择白银作为婚庆首饰，包括手镯、项链和耳 环。"现在结婚'三金'未必买金。我们家乡本就有白银消费习惯，白银在传统民族医学中还可用于推 拿、刮痧，多了实用价值。"刘女士说。 上海市普陀区一家金店设置了黄金购买回收自助设备。该设备可实现"智能回收"，具备自助下单、 自动检测、快速回款等功能，系统可自动检测用户放入的黄金重量和纯度，根据实时金价计算回收金额 并迅速打款。新华社记者 王翔 摄 年近六旬的胡先生，因金价走高调整了购金决策。"两年前，孙子办百日，老朋友送了金器。最近 这位朋友喜添爱孙，我准备封个红包，再打个银 ...

在北京菜市口百货商场，市民周奶奶正在了解贵金属饰品价格："多年前，我在铂金高点用金饰换购了 一些铂金饰品，现在回本有望。"记者也在京东菜百首饰官方旗舰店发现，今年9月新品中，出现了手 链、耳饰、生肖马链牌等多款铂金首饰，与马年生肖金饰并列展示。 银、铂价格同步向上攀升。看国际贵金属市场，伦敦白银现货价格不久前突破40美元/盎司，创下十余 年来的新高；纽约商业交易所铂金期货价格一度冲上1500美元/盎司。看国内贵金属市场，沪银期货主 力合约价格近日涨势强劲，9月12日盘中突破1万元/千克，创历史新高；铂金价格经历多年低位徘徊， 上海黄金交易所铂金现货今年累计上涨近50%，一度达到348元/克。 银、铂价格上涨，与金价走高有何关系？有关专家解释说，这类似于替代品（如牛肉和羊肉）的关系。 一种商品的价格发生变动，其替代品的市场需求往往同向变动。作为黄金的替代性选择，银、铂消费及 投资避险需求扩张，是市场对金价高位的正常反应。 衡量银、铂的投资价值，除了观察绝对价格走势，更要参考相对价格，即二者与黄金的比价。考察白 银，近期价格上涨一方面是由于工业领域光伏、汽车、消费电子等市场对白银需求持续增加，另一方面 也受到黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese art investment market has significant potential, with an estimated demand of approximately 20 trillion yuan, indicating a market that is four to five times larger than the current total transaction volume in the art market [7]. Group 1: Market Overview - The art investment market is recognized as one of the three major investment markets globally, following real estate and stocks, with an annual transaction volume of 400 to 500 billion yuan [5]. - The potential demand for art investment in China is estimated to be around 6 trillion yuan, highlighting the vast opportunities available in this sector [5][7]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Growth - The polarization of wealth in society is leading to a surplus of funds from the real estate market, which is expected to flow into the stock and art markets, driving their growth [10]. - Wealthy individuals are increasingly turning to art as a more liquid investment compared to real estate, which requires formal documentation and has more rigid transaction processes [12]. - The rising standard of living and cultural appreciation among the population is creating a robust market for high-value art exchanges [12]. Group 3: Unique Characteristics of Art Investment - Unlike real estate, quality art pieces are non-renewable and possess inherent scarcity, making them attractive investments [14]. - The demand for art is expected to increase as the need for housing diminishes due to various policies, redirecting funds towards the stock and art markets [16]. Group 4: Economic Impact and Future Outlook - The growth of wealth and consumption upgrades are primary drivers of the art consumption market, with art being viewed as a safe investment amid stock market volatility and slowing real estate appreciation [18]. - The development of the cultural and art investment sector is crucial for the domestic economy, reflecting a national emphasis on cultural heritage and innovation [20]. - The influx of capital into the art market is expected to lead to price increases, with projections indicating a peak in the art investment market over the next fifteen years [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short - term and has high strategic allocation value in the long - term due to international order changes [1]. - Silver will continue to have range - bound oscillations, influenced by gold and basic metals [1]. - Copper is under pressure in the short - term but is still favored in the long - term [1]. - Zinc may have a short - term rebound but is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - weak situation in the long - term [1]. - Lead is under pressure due to supply and demand factors [1]. - Tin is under pressure with inventory accumulation and supply recovery [1]. - Aluminum's price rebound is under pressure due to factors in the upstream and downstream [1]. - Nickel's price rebound is under pressure because of cost and inventory factors [1]. - Industrial silicon has a bearish outlook due to supply - demand imbalance [1]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to short on rebounds as supply remains high and demand is in the off - season [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver 行情回顾 - Trump's tax reform was initially passed, and conflicts in Gaza and between Russia and Ukraine flared up again, which may support the price of gold [2]. 基本逻辑 - Trump's tax reform bill narrowly passed the House of Representatives, which will increase the US debt by $4 trillion. CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by about $1.77 trillion from 2025 - 2029. China's central bank has been buying a large amount of gold, with last month's import reaching 127.5 metric tons, a 73% month - on - month increase. The Middle East is in turmoil. In the long - term, the global trend of reducing dependence on the US dollar and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies will support gold to attract incremental funds [3]. 策略推荐 - In the short - term, long positions can be arranged in the gold market, and for long - term investment, control the position. Silver may continue to have range - bound oscillations in the range of [8130, 8350] [4]. Copper 行情回顾 - The center of gravity of Shanghai copper has moved down, testing the support of the lower moving average [5]. 产业逻辑 - Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee is - $43.05 per ton. With the increase in smelting maintenance, the supply of electrolytic copper in May may decline to 1.1257 million tons. Trump's copper import tariff policy is causing the depletion of copper inventories outside the US. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is 139,900 tons, and the high copper price is suppressing demand. However, green copper demand in power, automotive, and home appliances is strong, offsetting the weakness in traditional copper demand in real estate and infrastructure [5]. 策略推荐 - Due to the increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and China entering the policy window period, copper has returned to its fundamentals. With continuous inventory accumulation in China, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Hold the remaining long - position bottom positions cautiously and pay attention to the support at the 77,000 level. In the long - term, there is confidence in the rise of copper. The short - term range for Shanghai copper is [77,000, 78,500], and for London copper, it is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc 行情回顾 - The rise of London zinc drove Shanghai zinc to have a small rebound [7]. 产业逻辑 - In 2025, the supply of zinc ore is expected to be looser. The domestic processing fee for zinc concentrate is reported at 3500 yuan per ton, and the import processing fee has increased by $5 per ton to $45 per ton. In April, China's zinc ingot production was 555,400 tons, with the daily average output increasing by 900 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The downstream demand has weakened, and the operating rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [7]. 策略推荐 - Zinc is a short - position variety in the sector. Although it was the only rising variety in the non - ferrous sector when the market sentiment subsided, in the short - term, the inventory reduction at home and abroad supports the price, but with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the terminal demand is weak and the supply continues to increase. It is recommended to hold the previous short positions. In the long - term, take short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The range for Shanghai zinc is [22,000, 22,600], and for London zinc, it is [2650, 2750] dollars per ton [8]. Aluminum 行情回顾 - The price of aluminum rebounded under pressure, and the price of alumina showed a downward trend [9]. 产业逻辑 - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - trade environment has eased. In mid - May, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 585,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum rods was 131,600 tons, a decrease of 6600 tons from last Thursday. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.6%, and new orders decreased. For alumina, the news disturbance from the overseas Guinea bauxite end has eased. The overall bauxite supply is at a high level, and the port inventory increased by more than 400,000 tons in April. Domestic alumina enterprises have concentrated on maintenance and production reduction, and the demand for bauxite has weakened. The inventory of alumina has decreased but is still at a relatively high level [10]. 策略推荐 - It is recommended to wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes, and the main operating range is [19,800 - 20,500]. Alumina is expected to operate stably [10]. Nickel 行情回顾 - The price of nickel rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel was also under pressure [11]. 产业逻辑 - For nickel, the overseas macro - environment has eased. The shipping volume of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore has decreased, weakening the cost support. In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6% month - on - month and 47% year - on - year. The latest operating rate of refined nickel enterprises is 67%, and the operating rate of leading enterprises remains high. In May, the domestic pure nickel social inventory is about 44,100 tons, with a slight increase week - on - week and still at a relatively high level. For stainless steel, driven by positive trade news, the inventory pressure in the stainless steel spot market has decreased. The total inventory in Wuxi and Foshan markets has dropped to 980,700 tons, a 0.85% week - on - week decrease. Although the social inventory has decreased due to the recovery of consumption, the overall industry still faces the pressure of oversupply [12]. 策略推荐 - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000 - 129,000] [12]. Carbonate Lithium 行情回顾 - The main contract LC2507 opened high and went high, with a reduction in positions and a rebound, rising more than 3% during the session [13]. 产业逻辑 - A lithium salt factory in Jiangxi plans to stop production for 4 months, affecting the monthly output by 1500 tons, which has a small impact on the overall supply scale. The price of raw materials has not stopped falling, and the negative feedback between lithium salt and ore still exists, causing the price center of gravity of lithium carbonate to move down. The upstream resource end has not stopped production, and the Australian Finniss project is conducting restart research with reduced operating costs. Domestic smelters have not had large - scale production cuts. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the Sino - US negotiation has not brought incremental orders to the energy storage market. Downstream enterprises are rushing to ship goods to reduce inventory, and the total inventory has increased again this week, with the inventory pressure concentrated on smelters, and the oversupply may further expand. The main contract is testing the support at the 60,000 integer level [14]. 策略推荐 - Short on rebounds in the range of [61,500 - 63,500] [14].

Core Insights - Despite record-high gold prices, China's gold imports surged by 73% month-on-month in April, reaching a total of 127.5 tons, the highest level in nearly a year [1][4] - The People's Bank of China allocated new import quotas to certain commercial banks in April to meet the strong demand for investment and safe-haven assets [1][5] - Platinum imports also hit a one-year high in April, with a total of 11.5 tons imported [1] Group 1 - The increase in gold imports occurred against a backdrop of fluctuating gold prices, which even touched $3,500 per ounce, indicating robust investor demand for gold despite high prices [4] - The central bank's allocation of new import quotas was a key factor driving the surge in imports, as it typically issues import licenses and quotas to specific designated banks [5] - Domestic investors are increasingly turning to gold to hedge against rising geopolitical uncertainties, which has been a significant driver of gold price increases earlier this year [5] Group 2 - Although there are hopes for easing trade tensions, as evidenced by the cancellation of 91% of tariffs between China and the U.S. in May, analysts suggest that the central bank's ongoing strategy of purchasing gold to diversify away from dollar assets is expected to further support gold prices [5]