2025年的这场反弹，不再是黄金时代的延续，更像是一场为了拿到"船票"而进行的悲壮交换。 没有胜利者的"回血" 回顾中国汽车工业四十年的合资历程，一个核心叙事曾贯穿始终：市场换技术。外方提供产品、技术与 品牌，中方提供市场、渠道与劳动力，双方在明确的权责界限与利润分割下，共同分享一个高速增长时 代的红利。 但进入2025年，当合资品牌在经历2024年的市场份额探底后，掀起一场看似强势的"反攻浪潮"，只是昔 日的"市场换技术"已然终结，取而代之的，是一个更为残酷而现实的新命题——品牌换生存。 所谓"反弹"，并非技术领先性的自然回流，而是合资品牌主动或被动地，将数十年积累的品牌资产、溢 价能力与全球声誉，作为筹码，换取继续留在中国市场的时间窗口。这是一场以价格体系自我瓦解、技 术主导权让渡、产品定义全面本土化为代价的交换。 翻开2025年中国车市的月度销量，从1月同比暴跌27%的"开门黑"，到年底同比降幅仍接近20%，合资 阵营绝大多数月份都在同比下滑的阴影中挣扎。所谓的市场"反弹"，并非强劲的V型反转，更像是在持 续下滑通道中，通过近乎全年的惨烈价格战与自我革命，勉强稳住阵脚、延缓失速的抵抗过程。 昔日的市场领 ...

Core Viewpoint - Toyota's financial outlook for the fiscal year 2025 indicates a significant decline in net profit, projected to drop by 44% to 2.66 trillion yen, highlighting a severe strategic misalignment and operational challenges in the face of evolving market dynamics [5][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Challenges - Toyota's operating profit is expected to decrease by 1.4 trillion yen due to U.S. government tariffs and a further reduction of 725 billion yen attributed to yen appreciation [7][10]. - The company's financial report reveals a stark contrast in performance across regions, with North America showing a revenue increase of 6.2% but incurring a direct loss of 21.1 billion yen, indicating a troubling trend in profitability [17][18]. - The overall financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 shows declines in revenue and profit across major markets, with Japan experiencing a 0.3% revenue drop and a 26.8% profit decline [17][18]. Group 2: Strategic Missteps and Market Position - Toyota's delayed response to the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) has left it vulnerable, as competitors like Tesla rapidly advance in the EV market while Toyota remains focused on hybrid technologies [18][24]. - The company's reliance on traditional manufacturing practices and a conservative approach to innovation have hindered its ability to adapt to the fast-paced changes in the automotive industry [20][24]. - Toyota's strategy of cost-cutting through material substitutions and component standardization has led to a decline in perceived value among consumers, risking brand loyalty and market share [31][35]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Operational Issues - The North American supply chain remains heavily reliant on imports from Japan and other countries, exacerbating the impact of tariffs and local policy changes [15][17]. - Recent supply chain disruptions have resulted in production halts, further complicating Toyota's operational efficiency and cost management [17][18]. - The company's extensive recall history, including over 1 million vehicles in December 2023 alone, raises concerns about quality control and the long-term implications of its cost-cutting measures [34][35]. Group 4: Leadership and Future Outlook - Shareholder dissatisfaction is evident, with declining support for leadership amid concerns over Toyota's slow adaptation to electric vehicles and technological advancements [37][40]. - The company's historical reliance on traditional automotive paradigms is increasingly seen as a liability, with calls for a more aggressive embrace of innovation and market trends [40]. - The financial forecast and strategic misalignment suggest that without significant changes, Toyota risks further erosion of its market position and profitability in the coming years [40].

撰 文 / 钱亚光 设 计 / shelly 来 源 / ww.reuter.com, www.bloomberg.com, themunicheye.com 中国依然是全球最大的汽车市场，去年汽车销量约为 3100 万辆。 市场竞争日益激烈，本土汽 车制造商在电动汽车市场取得了显著进展。 除了传统汽车制造商，小米和华为等科技公司也纷纷进军汽车领域，凭借在软件和互联方面的专 长，将汽车转变为复杂的移动设备。这种创新的涌入推动了汽车技术的快速发展、价格下降。 4月23日至5月2日举行的此次车展上，比亚迪和吉利等畅销中国品牌将占据中心位置，而大众、日 产、丰田以及通用汽车旗下的凯迪拉克等外国汽车制造商也将竞相争抢关注。 在中国，一场持续多年的汽车价格战仍在胶着，下一代自动驾驶功能已成为争夺汽车销量和利润的 新战场。 辅助驾驶成为焦点 今年，该行业的关注点不仅在于性能，还在于提供"智能"技术时所承担的责任。 汽车制造商在上海车展上争相宣传下一代驾驶辅助系统的计划已被打乱，原因是主管部门在一场致 命事故后，对使用"智能"或"自动驾驶"等术语来描述技术的营销宣传进行了约束。 3月29日，一辆小米SU7 轿车在司机试图从 ...