行业深度研究 | 医疗器械 心血管行业空间广阔，集采助力国产替代 心血管疾病相关医疗器械行业报告 心率不齐相关医疗器械市场规模大。根据弗若斯特沙利文研究报告，心 血管疾病中，心律不齐患病率相对较高，中国和全球范围的心脏电生理手术、 心律管理器械及心脏起搏器的市场规模不断增加。2021 年中国心脏电生理 器械市场规模达到65.80亿元，2025年预计将增至157.26亿元，预计到2032 年，中国心脏电生理器械市场规模进一步达到 419.73 亿元，全球范围达到 324.50 亿美元。 根据弗若斯特沙利文数据，全球心律管理器械市场的规模自 2016 年的 97 亿美元增加至 2021 年的 106 亿美元，复合年增长率为 1.8%，并预期于 2030 年将增加至 128 亿美元。根据弗若斯特沙利文数据，全球心脏起搏器市场预 期将由 2021 年的 3,597.4 百万美元增加至 2030 年的 4,224.9 百万美元，复 合年增长率为 1.8%。 冠状动脉和主动脉相关医疗器械市场规模较大。根据弗若斯特沙利文数据， 中国冠状动脉疾病患病人数不断增加，预计在 2026-2030 年的复合年均增长 率约 2.0%， ...

Summary of Conference Call on Medical Device Industry Industry Overview - The medical device industry is transitioning its valuation system from DCF to PB or dividend valuation due to the impact of centralized procurement policies. However, by 2025, the policy direction is expected to become more rational, with price increases observed in certain segments like coronary stents, indicating a healthier industry overall [1][3][2]. Key Companies and Their Performance 1. **Shanwaishan** - Expected profit for 2025 is between 160-180 million yuan, with revenue exceeding 800 million yuan. The equipment segment is projected to grow at 15%-20%, while the consumables segment may exceed 40%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three to five years is anticipated to reach 25%-30% [1][7]. - The self-produced consumables ratio has increased to over 50%, positively impacting overall gross and net profit margins [1][8]. 2. **Aidi Te** - Aidi Te's zirconia materials are not affected by centralized procurement, with overseas business growth outpacing domestic growth. Sales from 3D printer products are expected to exceed 100 million yuan, contributing at least 20 million yuan in profit. The industry growth rate is projected to be over 10% due to aging demographics [1][10]. 3. **Times Angel** - Times Angel anticipates over 50% growth in overseas business for 2025, with domestic and international sales volumes becoming comparable. The company aims for profitability in overseas operations by 2026, with a target market capitalization of 15 billion yuan based on domestic profit and sales scale [1][11]. Market Trends and Changes - The medical device industry is experiencing positive changes in 2025, with a controlled reduction in prices due to centralized procurement policies. Some segments, such as high-value consumables, are seeing price increases, particularly in ophthalmic artificial crystals and OK lenses [3][13]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to benefit mid-to-low-end consumables, allowing large manufacturers to leverage automated production lines to reduce costs [3][27]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Shanwaishan, Aidi Te, and Times Angel, with Shanwaishan showing strong performance in bidding data and overseas business growth, particularly in blood dialysis equipment [1][5]. - The high-value consumables sector, especially in ophthalmology and cardiology, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with specific companies like Aidi, Opcon Vision, and Haohai Medical recommended for their strong market positions [1][13]. Future Outlook - The overall valuation levels in the medical device sector are low, with potential for improvement in both performance and valuation levels, indicating a "Davis Double Play" scenario [1][6]. - The industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on brand volume and the gradual reduction of price differences among similar products, facilitating domestic replacements for foreign products [1][27].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The medical device sector is experiencing accelerated approval policies, which are beneficial for the industry, driven by innovation, internationalization, and mergers and acquisitions [1][2] - Companies like Xinmai Medical, Nanwei Medical, and Chunli Medical are actively transforming and showing significant growth in international business, contributing to valuation recovery in the sector [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - The optimization of centralized procurement policies is shifting focus from low prices to supporting innovative medical devices, which is expected to benefit the development and valuation of related companies [2][5] - The orthopedic industry is seeing a shift towards increased domestic production rates and concentration among leading companies, with significant growth potential in overseas markets [3][10] - Specific companies such as Xinmai Medical and Nanwei Medical are experiencing valuation recovery, with projected valuations around 22-25 times for 2025 [4][6] Future Opportunities in the Medical Device Industry - Future opportunities in the medical device industry are primarily in innovation, internationalization, and frequent mergers and acquisitions [5][7] - High-value consumables are expected to benefit from policy support, particularly in areas like aortic stents, digestive interventions, and minimally invasive surgical consumables [7][9] Performance Expectations for 2025 - The medical device sector is expected to show positive growth across various sub-sectors in 2025, with companies like Huatai Medical and Weidian Medical anticipated to see performance turning points [8][9] - Companies such as Union Medical and Mindray are expected to achieve significant growth in the third quarter, driven by improved bidding data and product performance [8][9] Specific Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Xinmai Medical, Nanwei Medical, and Guichuang Tongqiao, which are expected to perform well due to their growth potential and favorable market conditions [6][20] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like Guichuang Tongqiao and Weikang Medical are highlighted for their strong performance and innovation capabilities [18][19] Notable Trends and Developments - The IVD sector is facing challenges due to previous rounds of centralized procurement, but there is optimism for gradual improvement in performance in the latter half of the year [28][29] - The high-value consumables sector, particularly in electrophysiology, is expected to see significant growth, with companies like Huatai Medical benefiting from product launches and market acceptance [26][27] Conclusion - The medical device industry is poised for recovery and growth, driven by policy support, innovation, and international expansion. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies demonstrating strong growth potential and favorable market dynamics [1][5][20]

Core Viewpoint - The company faces pressure on its 2024 annual performance due to price adjustments in aortic stents, but its competitiveness in the aortic field remains strong, and its layout in peripheral and tumor intervention areas continues to improve, maintaining a buy rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company maintains a buy rating and forecasts EPS of 4.95/6.19 yuan for 2025-2026, with a new EPS forecast of 7.30 yuan for 2027, adjusting the target price to 123.75 yuan from 133.65 yuan, based on a target PE of 25X for 2025 [2] - In 2024, the company expects revenue of 1.206 billion yuan (up 1.6% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 502 million yuan (up 2.0%), with a non-recurring net profit of 396 million yuan (down 14.4%) [2] - The first half of 2024 saw high growth with revenue and net profit increasing by 27% and 44% year-on-year, respectively, but the second half is expected to decline by 26% and 54% due to the impact of aortic stent price adjustments [2] Group 2: International Expansion - The company is increasing its efforts in overseas market promotion, achieving market access and promotion for aortic and peripheral products in Europe, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific, with overseas sales revenue exceeding 160 million yuan in 2024, nearly doubling year-on-year [3] - The full acquisition of the UK joint venture Lombard in mid-2024 is expected to enhance cooperation and leverage its professional sales team and established distributor network in Europe, supporting the company's international strategy [3] Group 3: Product Development - The company continues to upgrade its aortic product line, with the new generation Cratos branched thoracic stent approved in March 2025, and ongoing clinical trials for Aegis II abdominal stent and Hector multi-branch thoracic stent, which are expected to maintain strong competitiveness in the aortic field [3] - The company is actively expanding into the peripheral and tumor intervention markets, with a complete product line including venous stents and filters, and ongoing clinical and registration work for new products [4] - In the fifth batch of national procurement in December 2024, the company’s self-developed peripheral venous stents and 3D peripheral arterial stents won bids, indicating potential for rapid market entry and volume growth [4]