兴发集团 20251128 摘要 兴发集团计划未来五年内将磷矿产能翻倍至 1,000 万吨，同时在草甘膦 （23 万吨产能）和有机硅（60 万吨粗单体，30 万吨 DMC）领域均有 布局，并向下游衍生产品延伸。 新建磷矿项目预计 2026 年投产，初期产能利用率 80%，宜安矿业预计 增加 50 万吨增量。乔沟磷矿和兴顺矿业也将扩建，但预计到 2028 年 才能推进。2026 年和 2027 年预计分别新增 60 万吨和 100 万吨产量。 磷矿需求稳定增长，预计未来五年净增量 3,000-4,000 万吨，但审批缓 慢，短期内供需平衡影响不大。2027 年新增 450 万吨增量预计被新能 源行业需求对冲，价格压力不大。 有机硅行业计划减产协同，开工率降至 70%，价格已涨至 13,000 元/ 吨，有望涨至 14,000-15,000 元/吨，实现约 10%利润率。需求每年增 速 15%-20%，市场前景积极。 草甘膦下半年价格上涨带来可观利润，目前维持在 26,500 元/吨。南美 和非洲需求旺季及枯水期成本上升支撑涨价预期，价格有望继续上涨。 Q&A 兴发集团的主要业务和未来发展规划是什么？ 兴发集团是 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Views - The company's performance in the third quarter showed a significant improvement, with a 42.15% increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter, driven by the recovery in prices of glyphosate and stable profitability in phosphate rock and new energy materials [1][9]. - Phosphate rock prices are expected to remain high, with the company holding substantial resources and production capacity, which supports the efficient operation of its entire phosphate chemical industry chain [2][11]. - The glyphosate industry is seeing a recovery in profitability due to high operating rates and decreasing inventories, with prices expected to maintain an upward trend as demand continues to grow [3][19]. - The company's specialty chemicals segment is performing well, with significant production capacity in dimethyl sulfoxide and improving profitability in its lithium iron phosphate business [4][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.85%, and a net profit of 1.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.31% [1][9]. - For the third quarter alone, revenue was 9.161 billion yuan, up 5.96% year-on-year, and net profit was 592 million yuan, up 16.17% year-on-year and 42.15% quarter-on-quarter [1][9]. Phosphate Rock Market - The price of phosphate rock is expected to remain in a high range, with current prices around 1,040 yuan per ton, and the company has significant phosphate resource reserves and production capacity [2][11]. - The company has approximately 395 million tons of phosphate resources and a designed production capacity of 5.85 million tons per year, with potential future capacity exceeding 10 million tons per year [2][11]. Glyphosate Market - The price of glyphosate has increased significantly, with a market price of 27,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 19.05% increase since March 2025 [3][19]. - The glyphosate industry is experiencing a demand surge, with expectations for continued price increases due to low inventory levels and upcoming procurement seasons [3][19]. Specialty Chemicals and New Materials - The company is the largest producer of dimethyl sulfoxide globally, with a production capacity of 60,000 tons per year, and its profitability remains strong [4][20]. - The lithium iron phosphate business has seen improved profitability due to increased operating rates [4][20]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its "Outperform the Market" rating, with projected net profits of 1.906 billion yuan, 2.154 billion yuan, and 2.333 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [24].

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月26日 兴发集团（600141.SH） 优于大市 磷矿石、草甘膦盈利提升，多项目培育新利润增长点 磷化工全产业链平稳运行，上半年利润保持稳健。2025 年上半年，公司实现营 业收入 146.20 亿元，同比增长 9.07%；实现归母净利润 7.27 亿元，同比下 降 9.72%；销售毛利率为 16.44%，同比下降 0.94 pcts。分业务来看，2024 年上半年，公司矿山采选业务实现营业收入 15.50 亿元，同比增长 19.64%， 毛利率 78.27%，同比提升 6.55 pcts；特种化学品业务实现营业收入 26.15 亿元，同比增长 0.28%，毛利率 18.03%，同比下降 7.42 pcts；肥料业务实 现营业收入 19.24 亿元，毛利率 6.60%；农药业务实现营业收入 25.68 亿元， 毛利率 12.46%；有机硅业务实现营业收入 13.69 亿元，同比增长 16.62%， 毛利率-2.22%，同比提升 2.22 pcts；商贸物流业务实现营业收入 25.14 亿 元，同比增长 18.44%，毛利率 3.24%，同比提升 1.43 pcts。公司上半年 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - Xinjiang's coal chemical industry is gaining market attention due to energy security and cost advantages, with expectations of entering a golden era [1] - The total planned investment in Xinjiang's coal chemical projects exceeds 700 billion yuan, with a planned coal demand of 210 million tons per year [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes Xinjiang's role in coal clean and efficient utilization, positioning it for significant development opportunities [2] Group 2: Company Profile - Guanghui Energy, a major local energy player, has coal reserves of 6.597 billion tons, benefiting from low extraction difficulty and costs [2] - The company has established a coal chemical base with investments in the hundreds of billions, aligning with policy directions [2] - In 2024, Guanghui Energy's coal chemical product output is projected to reach 2.2645 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.36% [3] Group 3: Production and Technology - The company’s methanol production is a core revenue source, with a projected output of 1.0788 million tons in 2024, up 18.43% year-on-year [4] - Guanghui Energy has successfully implemented advanced technologies in its production processes, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [4][5] - The company is focusing on technological innovation and industry integration to foster new growth points and extend its coal chemical industry chain [5] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Investments - The company is actively pursuing diversified strategic partnerships to enhance its growth and resource development [6] - A recent strategic cooperation with Shun'an Energy aims to accelerate the development of coal chemical projects in the eastern mining area [6] - Guanghui Energy's major shareholder change, with the introduction of Fude Group as the second-largest shareholder, is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][27] Core Views - The company's performance is supported by the stable operation of the phosphate chemical industry chain, with revenue growth and recovery in gross/net profit margins. In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 28.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.04%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.601 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.13% [10][11] - Phosphate rock prices are expected to remain high due to declining extractable grades and increasing demand from downstream sectors. The company holds significant phosphate resource advantages, with approximately 395 million tons of phosphate reserves and a designed production capacity of 5.85 million tons per year [2][19] - The profitability of the organic silicon and glyphosate sectors is anticipated to recover. Glyphosate prices have stabilized, and the organic silicon industry is showing strong price support, with DMC prices rising significantly [3][22][23] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 19.52%, up 3.30 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 5.70%, up 0.72 percentage points year-on-year. The mining and selection business saw a revenue increase of 65.28% to 3.557 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 74.28% [10][11] - The special chemicals business generated 5.278 billion yuan in revenue, a 4.97% increase, while the pesticide business achieved 5.204 billion yuan, a 21.50% increase. However, the organic silicon business faced challenges with a revenue of 2.647 billion yuan and a negative gross margin of -3.77% [11][18] Business Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing projects, including a 1 million tons/year optical mining project and various organic silicon and pesticide projects, which will enhance its competitive position in the market [26] - The company’s phosphoric acid production and other projects are progressing steadily, which will contribute to future profit growth [26] Profit Forecast - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.800 billion yuan, 1.942 billion yuan, and 2.051 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.4%, 7.9%, and 5.6% [4][27]