Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on the company's strong performance and growth potential [2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.483 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 140 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [9]. - The company has shown significant improvement in gross margin, reaching 61.5% in Q3 2025, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix optimization and lower raw material costs [9]. - The report highlights the successful launch of new products and the revitalization of mature brands, contributing to a robust growth matrix [9]. - The company is focusing on online marketing strategies to enhance brand visibility and sales conversion, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Tmall [9]. - The financial forecast has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 377 million yuan, 505 million yuan, and 606 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 6.531 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 377 million yuan in 2025, with a significant increase of 149% compared to the previous year [8]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 59.2% for 2025, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [8]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2025 is estimated at 44 times, with a potential upside of 46% based on current market valuation [9].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·化妆品 上海家化（600315） 2025 年三季报点评：25Q3 收入同增 28.3%， 调改焕新盈利能力显著提升 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6,598 | 5,679 | 6,277 | 6,950 | 7,688 | | 同比（%） | (7.16) | (13.93) | 10.54 | 10.72 | 10.62 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 500.05 | (833.09) | 412.15 | 484.15 | 603.20 | | 同比（%） | 5.93 | (266.60) | 149.47 | 17.47 | 24.59 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.74 | (1.24) | 0.61 | 0.72 | 0.90 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 36.78 | (22.08) | 44.62 | 37.99 | 3 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月28日 上海家化（600315.SH） 优于大市 三季度营收加速增长 28%，经营质量同步跃升 公司业绩持续兑现增长。公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收 49.61 亿 /yoy+10.83%；归母净利润 4.05 亿/yoy+149.12%；扣非归母净利润 2.31 亿 /yoy+92.35%。单 Q3 实现营收 14.83 亿/yoy+28.29%，归母净利润 1.40 亿/ 扭亏为盈，扣非归母净利润 959 万/扭亏为盈，其中公司投资的金融资产公 允价值变动收益 1.43 亿元。Q3 业绩积极表现归因：1)主要品牌的产品推新 迭代效果较好；2)品牌营销投放提升带动品牌用户群体扩圈；3)公司电商运 营能力提升。此外，四季度从目前双 11 表现来看，公司旗下大多数品牌跑 赢大盘，整体预期今年双 11 仍有望实现高两位数增长。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 6,598 | 5,679 | 6,258 ...