今年传统的股债平衡组合录得两位数涨幅，创下2019年以来最佳表现。Cambria Investments旗下一只持有29只ETF的全球配置基金录得成立以来最佳 年度表现，多资产量化组合的回报超越标普500指数。 尽管多元化策略在2025年表现出色，资金却持续流向集中的大型科技股敞口和主题交易。一些策略师警告称，在市场估值高企和集中度加深之际，放 弃多元化可能在错误的时机让投资组合暴露于风险之中。 投资者持续背离平衡策略 2025年，多元化投资策略录得多年来最强表现，但这一成就在AI热潮中几乎未获关注。 BCA Research首席策略师Marko Papic表示： 尽管所有焦点都集中在AI故事上，但2025年并非股票的故事，关键在于全球多元化配置。 2025年可能标志着华尔街传统谨慎策略的回归，但今年投资者仍然纷纷抛售这些策略。 今年传统的股债平衡组合录得两位数涨幅，创下2019年以来最佳表现。然而资金却持续流向集中的大型科技股敞口和主题交易。一些策略师警告称，在 市场估值高企和集中度加深之际，放弃多元化可能在错误的时机让投资组合暴露于风险之中。 本周的通胀数据印证了多元化策略的价值。周四美国通胀数据低于预期 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 has seen a strong performance of diversified investment strategies, with inflation data supporting their value as U.S. inflation came in below expectations, leading to a rare simultaneous rise in both stocks and bonds [1][3] - Despite the success of diversified strategies, funds continue to flow towards concentrated large-cap tech stocks and thematic trades, raising concerns about the risks of abandoning diversification at a potentially critical time [1][2] Group 1: Performance of Diversified Strategies - Diversified investment strategies achieved their strongest performance in years, with traditional balanced portfolios recording double-digit gains, marking the best performance since 2019 [1][3] - A global allocation fund under Cambria Investments, holding 29 ETFs, reported its best annual performance since inception, outperforming the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Trends - Investors have been moving away from balanced strategies, with funds flowing out of balanced and multi-asset fund categories for 13 consecutive quarters until a mild rebound this fall [3][4] - The shift in funds is towards concentrated large-cap tech stocks, thematic trades from core energy to quantum computing, and direct hedging tools like gold [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market has seen a rotation, with value stock ETFs attracting over $56 billion in inflows this year, the second-largest annual inflow since 2000, while Cambria's global value ETF surged approximately 50% [5] - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks in the fourth quarter, and some strategists expect this trend to continue into 2026 [5] - J.P. Morgan's David Lebovitz is leaning towards emerging market bonds and UK government bonds while maintaining selective exposure to U.S. stocks and AI stocks [6] Group 4: Cautionary Signals - Signs of a bubble are emerging, with Bank of America noting a strong buying impulse in 2025, and concerns about the disconnect between market performance and fundamentals are growing [7] - Despite abandoning the classic 60/40 allocation, many investors have not given up on multi-asset approaches, seeking opportunities in alternative assets such as private credit, infrastructure investments, and hedge funds [8]