美国总统特朗普的贸易政策理念，深深植根于上世纪八十年代日本经济全盛时期留下的印 象。如今他再度访问东京，贸易问题依然是核心议题。 东京皇居占地仅约一平方英里，其估值却超过了整个加州的房地产总值。在这个经济狂热的年代，特朗 普在纽约第五大道建起了以自己命名的金色大厦，而日本企业则大举收购美国地标性建筑，包括洛克菲 勒中心。 当时的日本不仅是经济巨人，更是科技创新先锋：索尼随身听、家用录像机、任天堂游戏机等创新产品 风靡全球。哈佛学者甚至出版《日本第一》一书，预示日本有望超越美国成为全球最大经济体。 企业投资意愿持续低迷，需求萎缩导致长期通缩，加上亚洲金融风暴和自然灾害等多重打击，日本经济 始终未能恢复活力。 如今日本面临更严峻的结构性问题：人口老龄化加速，1.23亿人口中65岁以上老人占比达30%，劳动力 短缺促使这个传统保守的国家开始接纳更多外籍劳工。 1984年特朗普在纽约 这种竞争压力成为特朗普推行关税政策的重要动因。他曾在1990年表示："他们先用消费品赚走我们的 钱，再用这些钱买下整个曼哈顿。" 然而时过境迁，日本经济总量已滑落至全球第四。特朗普此次将与日本新任首相高市早苗讨论美日贸易 协定，该协定规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the deep reliance of American households on Chinese-made products and the potential consequences of tariffs on these imports, including shortages, reduced choices, and increased prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Dependency on Chinese Products - A significant portion of essential household items in the U.S. is imported from China, with some products having import rates as high as 99%, such as toasters [5][7]. - The article illustrates that many everyday items, including kitchenware, personal care products, and even fireworks for celebrations, are predominantly sourced from China, indicating a profound dependency [2][7][10]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The imposition of tariffs has led to some production shifting to countries like Mexico and Vietnam, but many products still rely on Chinese components, particularly in the automotive sector where electric vehicle batteries are often sourced from China [2][9][10]. - The tariffs have resulted in increased costs for consumers, with estimates suggesting that a typical American household could face an additional $4,700 in expenses due to new tariffs [12][13]. Group 3: Changes in Consumer Behavior - Since 2018, there has been a gradual shift in consumer purchasing patterns, with some products being sourced from non-Chinese countries, although many items still carry the "Made in China" label [9][10]. - The article notes that while some high-end furniture and large items like mattresses are still produced domestically, the overall trend indicates a growing reliance on imports from other countries due to tariff pressures [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy, after over three decades of stagnation, appears to be showing signs of recovery, with rising property prices and a rebounding stock market, but the underlying issues that led to its previous decline remain critical for future growth [3][27]. Group 1: Economic Stagnation and Recovery - Japan's economy has been stagnant since the early 1990s, transitioning from a "lost decade" to "lost decades," with minimal growth in GDP and productivity [2][6]. - Since 2016, property prices in Japan have been slowly increasing, particularly in major cities, with Tokyo's tower prices expected to rise nearly 30% by 2024 [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index has shown significant recovery, surpassing 38,000 points in early 2024, marking a historical high [3]. Group 2: Technological Decline - Japan was once a leader in technology and innovation, but has fallen behind in adopting new technologies, particularly in the smartphone market, where it has lost ground to companies like Apple and Samsung [7][9]. - The decline in Japan's technological leadership is attributed to conservative corporate cultures and a reluctance to embrace new processes, leading to stagnation in productivity [21][22]. Group 3: Demographic Challenges - Japan faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining birth rate and an aging population, which have contributed to a shrinking workforce and economic stagnation [12][19]. - The labor force participation rate has only slightly decreased, but the potential for increasing working hours is limited due to existing long working hours [11][19]. Group 4: Housing Market Dynamics - Japan's housing market has remained relatively affordable compared to other major cities, attributed to less restrictive development regulations, allowing for a greater supply of affordable housing [14][15]. - The historical context of Japan's real estate bubble and subsequent crash has shaped current housing prices, with many households now free from mortgage burdens, potentially increasing disposable income [26][27]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The end of the long-standing mortgage burdens from the bubble era is expected to provide a boost to consumer spending, with a projected 2.7% increase in household consumption by the end of 2024 [27]. - Global investors, including Warren Buffett, have shown renewed interest in Japan, indicating potential for long-term investment growth in the country [27][28].