最近特朗普又开始折腾关税了，他近日公开宣布，要对全球实施新一轮关税措施。一开始他计划，全面征收10%的临时全球关税，可没想到，还不到24小 时，他就改口了。 特朗普直接把关税税率，从10%提高到了15%，还明确规定，这项政策从2月24日起正式生效，为期150天。消息一出来，国际市场瞬间慌了，亚洲主要经济 体也被搅得鸡犬不宁，股市、汇市纷纷出现震荡。 而这次关税调整，最惨的就是日本和韩国。英媒直言，日韩两国先前为了换取美国15%的关税待遇，投入了足足数千亿美元，花了大量的人力物力，结果全 白费了。 就拿日本来说，日本和美国去年7月达成贸易协议，日本承诺在2029年前，向美国投资5500亿美元，以此换取美国把日本输美商品的关税降到15%。本月17 日，日本还刚公布了首批360亿美元的对美投资项目，结果特朗普一涨关税，之前的约定就形同虚设，直接回到了原点。 韩国也没好到哪里去，韩国之前也投入了大量资金，和美国谈妥了15%的关税待遇，本想靠着这个待遇，多向美国出口商品，结果特朗普一句话，所有努力 都打了水漂。 这次关税调整还出现了一个反常的情况，全球贸易预警执行长弗里兹表示，中国、巴西、墨西哥和加拿大这些国家，之前是 ...

来源：求是网 百年变局加速演进，世界经济版图深度调整，全球产业格局正经历一场系统性重构。这一进程中，以美国为代表 推行的单边主义与保护主义政策加剧了全球经贸体系的不确定性，迫使许多国家重新审视并调整其产业布局，纷 纷推动产业本土化以规避外部风险，特别是主要经济体之间围绕半导体、人工智能等新兴产业的战略性竞赛日趋 白热化。深入剖析当前全球产业格局重构的核心特征、深层动因，进而制定精准有效的应对策略，对于我国统筹 发展和安全、实现产业高质量发展具有重大战略意义。 2025年7月16日至20日，第三届中国国际供应链促进博览会在北京举行，30余家中外企业和机构在智能汽车链展区 集中展示产业链上中下游的关键技术和产品。图为7月19日，参观者在观看展出的辅助驾驶芯片产品。 新华社记 者 鞠焕宗/摄 当前产业格局重构，绝非局部环节的调整，而是涵盖空间布局、价值结构、技术迭代、组织模式的多维度变革， 其本质是对经济全球化分工的调整，呈现出四大鲜明特征。 空间之变：从全球一体化到区域化与"1+N"多点布局。传统"哪里成本低就布局哪里"的全球化生产网络，在日益 凸显的地缘政治冲突与突发性供应链中断风险面前，其脆弱性暴露无遗。一些 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is the strategic competition between the US and Japan to secure critical mineral resources, driven by concerns over China's dominance in this sector [1][3][15] - The US has initiated a "Treasury Plan" with a budget of $12 billion to stockpile essential minerals, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign sources, particularly China [1][3] - Japan is actively exploring seabed resources, specifically rare earth elements, with the "Chikyū" deep-sea vessel successfully extracting mineral-rich sediment from the Minami-Tori-shima area [5][7] Group 2 - In 2025, the US Department of Defense and the Department of Energy plan to invest several billion dollars in domestic rare earth producers to enhance mineral security [3][5] - A cooperation agreement was signed between Japan and the US, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in various sectors, including nuclear energy, AI, and critical minerals [5][11] - The competition for critical minerals is not limited to the US and Japan; African nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo are implementing export quota policies, affecting global cobalt prices and supply chains [9][11] Group 3 - Despite the significant investments, experts warn that the high costs and technical challenges of deep-sea mining could delay commercial viability for at least a decade [9][15] - China currently controls approximately 70% of global rare earth production and 90% of processing, creating substantial barriers for other nations attempting to compete [13][15] - The article highlights the increasing assertiveness of resource-rich countries in Africa, which are becoming less willing to allow resources to flow to any single nation [15]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating US-China trade tensions are significantly impacting Cambodia, particularly its textile and footwear industries, which are heavily reliant on exports to the US. The imposition of high tariffs poses a risk to the Cambodian economy and employment. Group 1: Economic Impact and Government Response - The Cambodian government is in a difficult position as the textile industry supports nearly one million workers, mostly women, and potential tariffs could lead to factory closures and unemployment [3] - Prime Minister Hun Manet quickly initiated negotiations with the Trump administration, resulting in a reduction of tariffs from 49% to 19%, which temporarily stabilized the Cambodian economy [3][5] - The reliance on external markets, especially Chinese investments and raw materials, has been highlighted as a vulnerability, prompting Cambodia to seek diversification of its economic partnerships [5][9] Group 2: Diversification Efforts - Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol has been actively promoting investment from the US, Canada, Japan, and South Korea to reduce dependency on China and enhance economic resilience [7][9] - The Cambodian government aims to align with US supply chain standards and capitalize on global industrial shifts, indicating a strategic pivot in its foreign investment approach [9][17] - Cambodia has engaged a US lobbying firm to attract American investors, with commitments from US companies to invest between $500 million and $1 billion in manufacturing, which is crucial for maintaining exports and employment [15][19] Group 3: Long-term Economic Strategy - The Cambodian government is focusing on reducing its public debt exposure to China, which accounts for nearly 40% of its total external debt, and is shifting towards trade and investment growth [19] - Economic forecasts indicate that Cambodia's GDP will exceed $46 billion in 2025, with an expected growth rate of nearly 6% in 2026, reflecting a positive outlook amid ongoing geopolitical challenges [19] - The government’s strategy of maintaining neutrality in the US-China rivalry while strengthening its partnerships with both nations demonstrates a pragmatic approach to safeguard its economic interests [21]

Core Viewpoint - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company with €2.8 trillion (approximately ¥23 trillion) in assets under management, signals a significant shift by reducing investments in dollar assets and focusing on Europe and emerging markets, warning that the dollar will continue to weaken if U.S. economic policies remain unchanged [2][3]. Group 1: Amundi's Perspective - Amundi, as a conservative institutional investor, is particularly averse to unquantifiable tail risks and the failure of asset correlation, which are expected to converge dangerously in the U.S. market by 2026 [2]. - The company predicts a significant slowdown in U.S. real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2026, driven by structural factors such as exhausted private demand, diminishing marginal utility of fiscal stimulus, and policy uncertainty [3][4]. Group 2: Changing Dynamics of Dollar Assets - The dual advantages of dollar assets—growth and yield spread—are simultaneously diminishing [4]. - There is a fundamental reversal in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds; previously, the dollar would rise as a safe haven when equities fell, but now it moves in tandem with risk assets due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5][12]. Group 3: Seven Certainties - Amundi summarizes its macroeconomic judgments into "Seven Certainties," indicating a bearish outlook on dollar assets due to factors like rising inflation, geopolitical risks, and a preference for European credit and emerging market bonds [6][7]. - The strategic pillars include expectations of rising inflation, the need for diversification away from the dollar, and a focus on real and alternative assets as optimal substitutes during periods of currency depreciation [6]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Market Behavior - Over the past 12 months, despite a 14% rise in the S&P 500 due to AI investments, the dollar has depreciated by 10% against a basket of currencies since January 2025, indicating poor performance of U.S. assets when measured in foreign currencies [8][9]. - The U.S. market has experienced a "three-way kill" of stocks, bonds, and currency, reflecting instability akin to emerging markets, which raises concerns about the safety of dollar assets [10][11]. Group 5: The End of the "American Exception" - The underlying structural changes suggest a rewriting of the global financial system's fundamentals, with the assumption that the Federal Reserve can independently control inflation being challenged by rising federal debt and interest payments [12][14]. - The paradox of U.S. trade policy, which aims to reduce imports while expecting foreign entities to continue purchasing U.S. debt, poses a significant risk to the dollar's value and asset valuations [14].

Core Viewpoint - Brazil, with the second-largest global reserves of rare earth materials, is becoming a focal point for the U.S. and Europe to reduce dependence on China for rare earth supplies, leading to a competitive landscape among major economies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Financing - Brazil's rare earth projects have raised approximately $700 million in equity and debt financing over recent years, primarily from Western investors, including the London-listed Hochschild Group and various private investors [1]. - The U.S. has invested over $500 million in Brazil's only operational rare earth mine, operated by Serra Verde, positioning itself as the largest investor in this sector [2][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Dynamics - The U.S. is actively seeking to secure Brazil's undeveloped rare earth reserves, viewing Brazil as a key ally in its strategy to reduce reliance on China [2][4]. - The European Union is attempting to counter U.S. investments by focusing on supporting local employment and mineral processing industries in Brazil, although its decision-making and financing capabilities are perceived as less efficient compared to the U.S. [4][6]. Group 3: China's Position - China currently dominates the global rare earth market, accounting for over 60% of production and 92% of processing, making it a formidable competitor for both the U.S. and Europe [7][10]. - Chinese investments in Brazil's mining sector are projected to reach $556 million in 2024, indicating a strong interest in securing mineral resources [6]. Group 4: Challenges in Development - Despite Brazil's significant rare earth potential, large-scale production remains years away, with only one mine currently operational and producing limited quantities [10][11]. - The processing of Brazilian rare earths is still reliant on China, which possesses unique capabilities in separating and processing high atomic number rare earths [11].

Core Insights - A government-appointed advisory group indicates that Norway's $2.1 trillion sovereign wealth fund must intensify preparations to address increasing geopolitical risks [1][4] - The report highlights that tariffs, financial sanctions, and trade controls are increasingly being used to achieve geopolitical objectives [1][4] - The fund's size and prominence amplify these risks, with potential consequences including increased taxes, regulatory intervention, or even confiscation of assets [1][4] Group 1 - The report comes at a time when the fund, the world's largest holder of publicly traded stocks, is experiencing turmoil due to public backlash over its holdings related to the Gaza conflict [1][4] - This backlash led to the Norwegian Bank Investment Management Company divesting from several companies, including Caterpillar, which angered multiple Republican lawmakers in the U.S. [1][4] Group 2 - In response to the situation, Norwegian authorities have suspended the work of the ethical council that advises the fund to prevent sudden divestment actions [5] - Last week, Norway's Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg rejected proposals to withdraw from the U.S. amid geopolitical turmoil [6] - The working group, led by University of Oslo professor Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe, acknowledged that managing such risks is challenging, and that potential "friend-shoring" strategies could severely hinder risk diversification and investment returns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The participation of President Trump and a large U.S. delegation at the World Economic Forum in Davos is a strategic move aimed at reshaping perceptions of U.S. unilateralism into a more acceptable global governance framework [2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Delegation and Strategy - Trump will lead the largest U.S. delegation in the history of the forum, including key government officials and executives from major tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft [1]. - The delegation's composition reflects a strategic priority on security and economic nationalism, with representatives focusing on alliance restructuring and supply chain reconstruction for critical minerals [3]. Group 2: Implications of Participation - Trump's return to Davos is seen as an attempt to normalize "America First" policies by integrating government officials with tech capital representatives, thereby legitimizing a transactional diplomacy approach [2]. - The high-profile participation may exacerbate feelings of alienation among participants from developing countries, highlighting the inclusivity of initiatives proposed by emerging powers like China [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussions on the RMB exchange rate highlight a shift in the traditional understanding of currency depreciation and its impact on exports, suggesting that the previous assumptions may no longer hold true in the current geopolitical and economic landscape [1][4][8]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to year-end settlement demands and a weakening US dollar index, influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift towards a dual focus on employment and inflation [2][12]. - The traditional theory that currency depreciation boosts exports is being challenged, as external factors like US tariff policies impose rigid constraints on the effectiveness of such depreciation [4][8]. - The RMB's future trajectory will be influenced by multiple factors, including the interest rate differential between China and the US, tariff policies, and the fundamental economic conditions in China [2][14]. Group 2: Financial Power and RMB Internationalization - China is recognized as a "financial power," but still has a significant gap to bridge to become a "financial strong power," with limitations in RMB convertibility and international financial influence [2][16]. - The current RMB internationalization process is hindered by low gold reserves and insufficient influence in the international financial order, which are critical for establishing a strong currency [2][16][17]. - The need for structural reforms in China's financial system is emphasized to enhance the convenience of financial services and strengthen currency credibility, which are essential for achieving the status of a financial strong power [2][17][18]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain volatile, with potential for appreciation in the short term, but uncertainties will increase post-October 2026 due to evolving US-China relations and tariff negotiations [14][15]. - The ongoing capital outflow and the trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas are likely to create upward pressure on the RMB, complicating its appreciation prospects [15][16]. - The discussion around RMB's role in the global financial system underscores the importance of financial liberalization and the need for China to enhance its financial market's openness to transition from a financial power to a financial strong power [17][18].

Core Insights - KOTRA identifies three major trends for Korean companies to focus on in response to rising global trade protectionism and economic security issues [1] Group 1: Global Supply Chain Restructuring - The first trend is the restructuring of global supply chains centered around "friend-shoring," with countries actively moving key industries like semiconductors and batteries to local and friendly nations, presenting strategic opportunities for Korean companies to deeply integrate into international core supply chains [1] Group 2: Technological Competition - The second trend involves a shift from software to "physical AI" technology competition, with global AI investments increasingly focusing on humanoid robots and autonomous driving, which interact with the physical world [1] Group 3: Global Expansion of K-Consumer Goods - The third trend is the global expansion of K-consumer goods driven by the Korean Wave (Hallyu), which has evolved into a globally shared "K-lifestyle," directly boosting exports of cosmetics, food, and pharmaceuticals, with multi-category annual export value surpassing 10 billion USD, becoming a stable pillar of export growth [1] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - KOTRA emphasizes that companies need to proactively adapt to supply chain restructuring trends and seize opportunities in emerging markets represented by the "Global South," as well as in the AI and consumer goods growth sectors to build diversified competitiveness [1]