2025年12月30日，复旦大学经济学院举办了"南土国际金融政策圆桌会第8期"，同时也是"如何看待当前 宏观金融形势系列"的首场活动。本次圆桌会聚焦"当前人民币汇率走势"，与会学者围绕美元周期波 动、关税博弈以及资本流动等多重因素，系统分析了人民币汇率的运行趋势，并深入探讨了中国在金融 强国竞争中面临的现实制约及可行战略选择。 在当前的宏观环境下，单纯依靠人民币贬值来提振出口的逻辑已不再成立。关于人民币汇率波动的利弊 影响，我们需要重新审视：贬值是否真的能如预期般带动出口增长？答案是不确定的。既然传统条件已 不再具备，我们便无需过度纠结于贬值带来的利益，也不应先入为主地将升值视为利空。相反，人民币 升值能够显著降低进口中间品和资本品成本，并提升企业"出海"投资的购买力。 复旦大学经济学院教授沈国兵指出，在"友岸外包"和价值观叠加产供链安全的新形势下，基于效率和国 际分工的"马歇尔-勒纳条件"已不再适用，使得传统"汇率贬值促进出口"的命题已然失效。随着美国特 朗普政府加码关税壁垒和实施供应链重塑战略，"友岸外包"和价值观叠加产业链供应链安全取代了效率 导向的国际分工逻辑，人民币贬值并不一定能改善一国出口绩效。相 ...

（原标题：KOTRA发布全球战略 供应链、AI与韩流消费成2026年三大增长关键） 据韩国《Dailian》17日报道，大韩贸易投资振兴公社（KOTRA）日前在首尔举办全球市场战略说明会，为韩国企业指明未来核心发展方向。 面对全球贸易保护主义抬头与经济安全议题升温的复杂环境，KOTRA认为应聚焦三大趋势：一是以"友岸外包"为核心的全球供应链重组。部 分国家正积极推动半导体、电池等关键产业供应链向本土及友好国家转移，为韩国企业提供深度融入国际核心产业链的战略机遇。二是从软件迈 向"实体AI"的技术竞争。全球人工智能投资重点正转向人形机器人、自动驾驶等与物理世界交互的"实体AI"。三是韩流驱动的K-消费品全球扩 张。韩流已进化为全球共享的"K-生活方式"，直接带动化妆品、食品、医药品等消费品的出口增长，多品类年出口额已突破百亿美元，成为稳定 的出口增长支柱。 KOTRA强调，企业需主动适应供应链重构趋势，同时把握以"全球南方"为代表的新兴市场以及AI、消费品两大增长领域，构建多元化竞争 力。 ...

综合新华社消息，2025年的世界，仍笼罩在冲突的阴影之下。技术加速更新、大国博弈与旧有矛盾相互 交织，让战火与动荡呈现出更复杂、更易蔓延的新形态。根据今年6月份发布的《全球和平指数》报 告，世界整体和平水平降到了该指数创立近二十年来的最低点。一个关键数据是，目前全球正在发生 的、由国家参与的武装冲突高达59起，这是二战结束以来最多的一年。冲突，成为了这个时代诸多伤痛 的共同根源。 当地时间 2025年12月1日，顿涅茨克地区康斯坦丁尼夫卡，一名乌克兰军人在被摧毁建筑物的废墟中行走。视觉 中国 图 前线·相互关联的冲突 如今的主要冲突，比如持续进行的俄乌冲突和反复激化的巴以冲突，早已不再是孤立的事件。相反，它 们就像两个巨大的风暴中心，产生了广泛的"外溢效应"，实实在在地影响着全球的能源价格、粮食供应 和整个区域的稳定。 当地时间2025年7月2日，顿涅茨克地区，俄军"中央"集群的士兵在前线操作2S44"风信子-K"自行榴弹炮 向乌克兰阵地开火。视觉中国 图 俄乌冲突已进入第四个年头，演变为一场高技术消耗战。双方大量使用无人机、电子战系统及人工智能 等辅助作战装备。值得注意的是，此类作战技术与经验已向世界其他冲 ...

特朗普原本承诺要带回美国的"制造业繁荣"，竟然鬼使神差地出现在了大洋彼岸的中国。 贸易顺差破万亿，制造业产出飙升，这一连串的数据像是一记记响亮的耳光，抽在了华盛顿那些鹰派政客的脸上。为什么美国越是极限施压，中国的工业引 擎反而转得越快？ 如果说几年前还有人担心美国的关税大棒能打断中国制造的脊梁，那么现在，这种担心已经被事实狠狠地踩在了脚下。 2025年即将收官，当美国媒体拿着计算器核对这一年的贸易数据时，他们惊讶地发现：美国输了，而且输得很惨。 美媒的惊叹：封锁线上的"逆行者" 12月9日，中时电子报援引美国《华尔街日报》数据报道，2025年中国制造业呈现全面发力迹象，汽车与化学品产量均创历史新高。 截至11月，中国贸易顺差已超1万亿美元，约合7.2万亿人民币，若剔除能源粮食进口，顺差规模甚至可达2万亿美元，相当于俄罗斯一年的国民收入。 美媒不得不承认，美国遏制中国经济及削弱中国供应链的努力面临全面失效。 美国人原本的剧本是这样的：加关税->中国商品变贵->订单流失->产业链搬回美国->中国经济崩溃。 但现实的剧本却是：加关税->美国通胀飞涨->中国开拓新兴市场->产业链在中国完成升级->中国顺差创纪录。 《 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Administration has announced the first batch of hydrogen energy pilot projects, including 41 project pilots and 9 regional pilots, aimed at promoting the development of hydrogen energy as a key driver for energy transition and achieving carbon neutrality goals [1][5]. Group 1: Pilot Projects Overview - The 9 regional pilot projects are located in Jilin, Ningxia, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, and Sichuan, focusing on three directions: large-scale renewable hydrogen production, full-chain development, and technological innovation and application expansion [1][5]. - The pilot projects are designed to explore diverse pathways for hydrogen energy development and to create replicable experiences that support the full-chain development of hydrogen energy [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Development and Goals - By the end of 2024, China's hydrogen production capacity is expected to exceed 50 million tons per year, with an annual production and consumption scale surpassing 36.5 million tons, ranking first in the world [4]. - Research indicates that by 2030, China's green hydrogen production could reach 3 million tons, potentially forming a market worth over 1 trillion yuan, positioning the country at the forefront globally [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Directions - Despite the promising outlook, the hydrogen industry faces challenges such as an incomplete industrial system, high production and transportation costs, and limited application scenarios [5]. - The pilot projects aim to address these challenges by focusing on technological and model breakthroughs, with regional pilots promoting collaborative development of the industrial ecosystem [5][6].

Core Insights - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) predicts that global trade will exceed $35 trillion for the first time by 2025, driven by significant contributions from East Asia, Africa, and South-South trade [1][2] Group 1: Global Trade Growth - Global trade is expected to maintain growth in the second half of 2025 despite geopolitical tensions, rising trade costs, and imbalances in global demand [1] - In Q3 of this year, global trade grew by 2.5%, with goods trade increasing by nearly 2% and services trade by 4% [1] - For the entire year, global trade is projected to grow by approximately 7%, with goods trade expected to increase by about $1.5 trillion and services trade by $750 billion [1] Group 2: Regional Contributions - East Asia has shown the strongest export growth over the past year at 9%, with intra-regional trade rising by 10% [2] - Africa's trade activity is also robust, with imports growing by 10% and exports by 6% [2] - South-South trade has increased by around 8%, indicating closer economic ties among developing economies [2] Group 3: Sectoral Performance - The manufacturing sector, particularly electronics, is experiencing rapid growth in global trade, with a projected increase of 10% in manufacturing trade and 14% in electronics, partly due to demand in artificial intelligence [2] - The automotive sector is facing a decline in trade by 4%, although growth in hybrid vehicle trade is somewhat mitigating this downturn [2] - The energy sector is seeing a reduction in trade, primarily due to declines in fossil fuels, photovoltaic products, and critical minerals [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report indicates that trade imbalances will persist into 2025, with trends of "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" intensifying, as trade shifts towards partners with similar political stances or closer geographical proximity [2] - UNCTAD forecasts that global economic growth may slow in 2026 due to a combination of reduced economic activity, rising debt, increased trade costs, and ongoing uncertainties [2]

Core Insights - Agricultural trade experienced strong growth in Q3, particularly in grains, fruits and vegetables, and oilseeds and edible oils [1] - UNCTAD's report projects a 7% increase in global trade by 2025, amounting to an additional $2.2 trillion, reaching a record $35 trillion [1] - Global goods trade is expected to rise by approximately $1.5 trillion, while services trade is projected to grow by about $750 billion, with a nearly 9% increase [1] Trade Growth Projections - In the second half of 2025, global goods and services trade is anticipated to continue growing, driven by East Asia, Africa, and South-South trade [1][5] - Q4 growth is expected to slow, with goods trade increasing by 0.5% and services trade by 2% [1] - UNCTAD forecasts a weakening trade growth momentum in 2026 due to slowing global economic growth, rising debt, and increased trade costs [2] Regional Trade Trends - South-South trade has outpaced the global average, with an 8% growth over the past four quarters, indicating resilience among developing economies [5] - East Asia and Africa showed the strongest growth, with East Asia's exports increasing by 9% and regional trade growing by 10% [6] - Africa's imports grew by 10% over the past four quarters, with exports also performing well, increasing by 6% [6] Sector Performance - Manufacturing, particularly electronics, remains a key driver of economic growth, with a 3% increase in Q3 and a 10% rise over the past four quarters [8] - Agricultural trade grew by 8% in Q3, with grains, fruits and vegetables, and oilseeds and edible oils each seeing significant increases of 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively [8] - The automotive sector continues to struggle, with a 1% decline in trade value in Q3 and a 4% decrease over the past four quarters [9] Commodity Trade Insights - Steel trade saw the largest increase, growing approximately 40% since Q3 2024, while natural resource trade remains sluggish due to falling mineral fuel prices [9] - The current global trade imbalance is severe, with geopolitical factors reshaping trade flows and uncertainty impacting the outlook for 2026 [9] - Trends in "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" have strengthened in Q3, indicating a shift towards long-term averages seen in 2021 [9]

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reports that despite geopolitical tensions, uneven global demand, and rising trade costs, global trade is expected to grow in the second half of 2025, with total trade volume projected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time [1] Group 1: Global Trade Growth - Global trade is forecasted to grow by 2.5% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter, with goods trade increasing by nearly 2% and services trade by 4% [1] - The total trade volume for the year is expected to increase by approximately 7% compared to the previous year, with goods trade projected to grow by $1.5 trillion and services trade by $750 billion [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - East Asia has shown the strongest export growth over the past year, with an increase of 9%, and intra-regional trade rising by 10% [1] - South-South trade has grown by about 8%, indicating closer economic ties among developing economies, with China and South Korea leading in East Asia, while Brazil and South Africa are key growth drivers in South America and Africa, respectively [1] Group 3: Emerging Economies - Strong growth in service exports from India and China highlights the increasing importance of emerging economies in global trade [1] Group 4: Trade Trends - The report indicates a strengthening trend of "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring," with trade shifting towards partners with similar political stances or geographical proximity, suggesting a reshaping of the global trade landscape [1] Group 5: Future Outlook - UNCTAD predicts that global trade growth will slow down in 2026 due to a slowdown in global economic activity, rising debt, increasing trade costs, and ongoing uncertainties [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant easing of tensions in the US-China trade war, marked by mutual tariff reductions and the suspension of port fees, driven by domestic inflation pressures in the US and upcoming elections [1][3]. - The US has reduced the so-called "fentanyl tariff" on China from 20% to 10% and suspended 24% equivalent tariffs and export control rules for a year, indicating a strategic retreat rather than a genuine concession [3]. - The Philippines has shifted its stance by resuming electronic visa services for Chinese citizens, aiming to recover lost tourism and investment, reflecting a survival strategy amid geopolitical tensions [1][6]. Group 2 - The Philippines' economy is heavily reliant on China, with bilateral trade reaching $87.7 billion in 2023, and losing access to the Chinese market could severely impact its fishing, agriculture, and tourism sectors [5]. - Southeast Asia is increasingly embedded in China's supply chain, with countries like Vietnam and Malaysia relying on Chinese components, highlighting the paradox of "decoupling" from China [5]. - The region is pivoting towards China, as evidenced by infrastructure projects like the China-Laos railway, which is expected to increase freight volume significantly, while US initiatives like the Trans-Pacific Partnership have lost relevance [5][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for Chinese companies expanding internationally in the current geopolitical climate, emphasizing the need for a nuanced approach that considers historical context and modern realities [1][2][11]. Historical Context - The historical relationship between economic trade and military expansion is highlighted, with examples from ancient Greece, India, and the Islamic Caliphate demonstrating how trade has often been intertwined with political and cultural shifts [3]. - The article notes that the violent expansion models of the past are no longer viable for Chinese companies, which must seek alternative strategies for international engagement [3]. Comparison with Other Nations - Chinese companies' international expansion is compared to the post-World War II expansion of American companies and Japan's strategies post-1973 oil crisis, noting that the geopolitical environment has changed significantly, making direct imitation of these models problematic [5][6][9]. - The article emphasizes that while American companies benefited from a lack of competition and a favorable global environment, Chinese companies face political and ideological challenges that complicate their international strategies [6][11]. Current Challenges - Chinese companies are currently navigating a complex international landscape characterized by rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, which can hinder their market access and operational strategies [11][12]. - The article cites specific policies from the Biden administration and the European Union that target Chinese companies, illustrating the non-economic factors that can impact their international operations [11][12]. Strategic Opportunities - The article proposes six potential models for Chinese companies to explore in their international expansion: 1. **Multi-Center Trade Clusters**: Establishing flexible trade networks across various regions to mitigate risks [14][15]. 2. **Sustainable Resource Development Communities**: Collaborating on international standards in emerging industries to bypass geopolitical barriers [16]. 3. **International Metropolitan Economic Cooperation Alliances**: Forming city-to-city partnerships to enhance trade and cooperation [17]. 4. **Cultural Economic Entities**: Leveraging cultural resonance to build cross-border user communities [18]. 5. **Sovereign Economic Distributed Global Supply Chains**: Creating diversified supply chains to reduce reliance on single countries [19]. 6. **Equitable Growth Partnerships**: Promoting sustainable development narratives in collaboration with developing nations [20]. Conclusion - The article concludes that Chinese companies must adopt a multi-modal approach to global cooperation, moving beyond a singular export-oriented strategy to create a strategic moat in the face of geopolitical challenges [21]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the cultural and civilizational dimensions of international business, suggesting that successful engagement requires more than just economic transactions [22][23].