中信证券维持戴尔(DELL.US)买入评级，目标价160美元，公司全年业绩指引上调，受益于AI服务器订 单强劲（FY2026出货指引250亿美元）、传统服务器更新及PC换机周期。存储业务成本回收超预期， Non-GAAP净利润有望稳健增长。基于可比公司估值，给予FY2026年16倍PE，目标价升至160美元。 ...

Core Insights - Dell's Q3 FY26 earnings call highlighted a significant acceleration in AI growth, with record orders of $12.3 billion and a backlog of $18.4 billion [1] - The company expects Q4 revenue to be between $31 billion and $32 billion, with a non-GAAP EPS of $3.50, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase [1] - For FY26, Dell anticipates total revenue of $111.2 billion to $112.2 billion, representing a 17% growth, and an EPS of $9.92, a 22% increase [1] AI Business Outlook - Dell has strong confidence in its AI business, projecting revenue growth driven by backlog orders and project reserves [2] - The company plans to leverage market expansion, gross margin improvement, cost control, and stock buybacks to enhance EPS growth [2] Financial Performance - Q3 orders reached $12.3 billion, with year-to-date orders totaling $30 billion, both record highs [1] - Q3 shipments amounted to $5.6 billion, with year-to-date shipments at $15.6 billion [1] - The backlog of orders stands at $18.4 billion, indicating robust demand [1] Profitability and Cost Management - AI server profitability improved quarter-over-quarter, with margins recovering to the mid-single digits [6] - The company is focused on managing rising costs through pricing adjustments and operational efficiency [3][7] - ISG's operating margin increased by 350 basis points to 12.4% in Q3, driven by strong storage performance and strict pricing discipline [8] Market Dynamics - The PC market is expected to remain vibrant due to the ongoing transition to Windows 11 and the demand for AI PCs [10] - Dell's traditional server demand has shown double-digit growth, although revenue growth has not fully aligned with demand [10] - The company is optimistic about the potential for significant upgrades in the server market, as approximately 70% of existing devices are outdated [10] Strategic Focus - Dell is shifting towards its proprietary IP storage solutions, which are expected to enhance revenue and improve margins [12] - The company is actively targeting three core areas: open automation in private cloud, AI data platforms, and network resilience solutions [12] - Dell's procurement strategy remains stable, with a focus on ensuring supply chain continuity amid rising component costs [13]

Core Viewpoint - Dell Technologies is expected to report strong Q2 2026 earnings, with analysts raising EPS estimates significantly, reflecting high market expectations for the company's performance [1][2]. Financial Estimates - Projected revenue for Q2 2026 is $29.2 billion, with adjusted EPS estimated at $2.30, driven by optimism in AI infrastructure and traditional server sales [2][9]. - Analysts have upgraded EPS estimates 13 times and downgraded 3 times in the past 90 days, indicating strong market sentiment [1]. Segment Performance - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) is anticipated to see a 12% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2026, with server and networking revenue growing by 16% [3][4]. - AI-optimized server shipments reached $1.8 billion, with a backlog of $14.4 billion, primarily driven by demand from cloud service providers and enterprise clients [3][4]. Strategic Developments - Dell is enhancing its AI data platform to streamline AI development and deployment, aiming to connect AI agents with enterprise data [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a significant upgrade cycle as many existing servers are outdated, particularly among its customer base [4]. Market Trends - The overall IT spending forecast for 2025 indicates strong growth in data center systems, with Dell expected to outperform market expectations in this area [8][9]. - The commercial PC sales are gradually increasing, supported by the anticipated improvements from Windows 11 updates [10]. Financial Health - As of Q1 2026, Dell's cash and cash equivalents stood at $7.7 billion, with total debt at $28.8 billion, reflecting a strong financial position [10][11]. - The company has seen improvements in its leverage ratio, indicating better financial management since Q2 2025 [10]. Future Outlook - Dell is expected to achieve significant growth in Q2 2026, driven by AI server sales and a shortening refresh cycle for traditional servers and commercial devices [10][12]. - The integration of GenAI technology in operations is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and drive future growth [10].