2026年1月，伦敦现货金已上涨17.46%，伦敦现货银已上涨52.68%！ 在2025年7月27日的年中分析会上，鸿学院断言：黄金要想结构性的强势突破需要两大外部条件！ 2.白银挤兑带动黄金向上突破！ 1月19日，高市早苗宣布意向，将于1月23日解散日本国会众议院，开始为2月8日的众议院选举做准备。 金银价格正在暴涨，也在剧烈震荡！ 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金首次突破5000美元/盎司后继续上涨，进一步突破5100美元/盎司，又迅速回落。1月27日，金价再次逼近5100美元/盎司大关！ 1月26日，伦敦现货白银价格突破117美元/盎司，创历史纪录，但此后大幅回调，几乎抹去当日涨幅。1月27日，现货白银价格大幅走高，一度涨超7%。 1.美债或日债出现问题，联动全球长债市场严重危机，黄金再次成为避险天堂！ 为赢得选举，她连续抛出诸如暂停部分消费税等减税政策，将进一步加重日本政府沉重的债务压力，导致投资人恐慌出逃，长债收益率飙升，基差套利崩 溃，对冲基金大规模解杠杆，国债市场出现惊天崩溃。 1月20日，日本30年期和40年期国债的收益率均飙升逾25个基点。这被路透社形容为一次罕见的"自由落体"运动。日本40年期国债 ...

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have reached historic highs, with gold surpassing $4,000 and silver hitting a 45-year peak, drawing significant market attention [1][2] - Despite the recent surge, there are concerns about short-term volatility, leading some institutions to adopt a cautious stance on precious metals [1][3] Market Performance - On October 14, gold futures rose initially but faced a significant drop, with gold futures down 3% at one point and silver futures fluctuating over 6%. By the end of the day, gold futures closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 2.7%, while silver futures closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, also up 2.64% [2] - The London spot market saw gold prices recover above $4,100 after a brief decline [2] Drivers of Price Movement - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to the "TACO trade" initiated by the Trump administration, alongside a liquidity crisis in the silver market that has driven prices higher [2][4] - The Philadelphia Fed's new chair's support for two more rate cuts this year, combined with the fragile Middle East ceasefire, has contributed to the bullish trend in precious metals [2] Institutional Outlook - Major U.S. institutions express a consensus of being "long-term bullish but short-term cautious" on precious metals. Bank of America raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing support from unconventional policies [3] - Goldman Sachs also sees potential for silver price increases driven by private investment inflows but warns of liquidity risks [3][5] Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a historic short squeeze, with London spot inventories down 75% since 2019, leading to soaring leasing rates and increased delivery costs for short sellers [4] - Year-to-date, silver prices have risen nearly 80%, outperforming gold recently [4] Long-term Investment Considerations - Despite gold's rise above $4,000, its unique safe-haven value remains highly regarded, with suggestions for investors to allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold [6] - Goldman Sachs predicts further increases in gold prices, raising its 2026 forecast to $4,900, driven by central bank diversification and expected rate cuts [7] - The ongoing strong performance of gold in 2025 is attracting renewed investor interest, with ETF inflows turning positive [8]