伦敦白银市场正经历严峻的实物挤兑，投资者大举抛售纸白银合约、抢购现货，导致关键指标"一年期白银掉期利差"已跌 至-7.18%，显示出现货极度紧缺。专家称，这一"扭曲"是白银价格上涨的核心动力，在杠杆承压与套利加剧下，银价涨 势或将继续。 最新的动态来自荷兰交易专家Karel Mercx的分析。他指出，一个被用作衡量伦敦市场实物短缺程度的代理指标——1年 期白银掉期利率减去美国利率的利差——目前已暴跌至-7.18%。 伦敦白银市场正面临一场愈演愈烈的实物挤兑，一个关键利率指标的深度负值揭示了白银现货供应的极端紧张。 这一"扭曲"的数据意味着， 交易员为立即获得实物白银所愿意支付的溢价，已比一年后交割的白银高出近7%。正常情况 下，由于存在仓储、保险和融资成本，远期价格应高于现货价格。 因此，理论上，该"一年期白银掉期利差"数值应为正 值，以覆盖持有实物白银一年的相关成本。 而如今情况完全逆转，表明持有纸质凭证的投资者正在不计成本地寻求实物交割。 这种行为模式被市场观察人士形容为 一场对伦敦"现货"白银市场的"挤兑"。这将激励投资者和用户继续抛售纸面合约，转而要求提取实物金属。 分析指出，只要这种短缺状况持续，白 ...

12月26日，国际现货金、银价格再创历史新高。 自12月25日夜盘时段起，贵金属价格再度强势走高，并一直延续到12月26日亚洲时段开盘。现货黄金（伦敦金现）一度触及每盎司4531.284美元 的创纪录高位。现货白银（伦敦银现）连续突破每盎司73美元、74美元和75美元关口，最高触及75.142美元/盎司。 截至发稿，现货黄金冲高回落至每盎司4502.44美元，涨0.51%；现货白银最新价格为每盎司74.584美元，涨3.86%。 | 黄金 広 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 伦敦金现 | SHFE黄金 | | 1014.3247 | 4502.440 | 1016.70 | | +5.1928 | +23.050 | +7.94 +0.79% | | COMEX黄金 | 上海等 | SGE黄金T+D | | 4534.1 | 1010.21 | 1009.06 | | +31.3 +0.70% | +7.38 | +6.55 +0.65% | | 自銀 | | | | 伦敦银(人民币/千 16802.5318 | 伦敦银现 | SHFE自银 | | | 74. ...

12月26日，国际现货金、银价格再创历史新高。 自12月25日夜盘时段起，贵金属价格再度强势走高，并一直延续到12月26日亚洲时段开盘。现货黄金（伦敦金现）一度触及每盎司4531.284美元 的创纪录高位。现货白银（伦敦银现）连续突破每盎司73美元、74美元和75美元关口，最高触及75.142美元/盎司。 截至发稿，现货黄金冲高回落至每盎司4502.44美元，涨0.51%；现货白银最新价格为每盎司74.584美元，涨3.86%。 | 黄金 広 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 伦敦金现 | SHFE黄金 | | 1014.3247 | 4502.440 | 1016.70 | | +5.1928 | +23.050 | +7.94 +0.79% | | COMEX黄金 | 上海等 | SGE黄金T+D | | 4534.1 | 1010.21 | 1009.06 | | +31.3 +0.70% | +7.38 | +6.55 +0.65% | | 自銀 | | | | 伦敦银(人民币/千 16802.5318 | 伦敦银现 | SHFE自银 | | | 74. ...

Core Insights - The silver reserves in London vaults saw the largest increase in at least nine years in October, alleviating previous extreme supply tightness that had caused London silver prices to soar above those in Shanghai and New York [1] - The influx of nearly 54 million troy ounces of silver into London vaults was driven by historical arbitrage opportunities due to market tightness, leading to a transfer of inventory from other regions [1] - The surge in demand from India and inflows into silver ETFs contributed to the supply constraints, resulting in a peak premium of $3 per ounce for London spot silver over other markets [1][2] Group 1 - The recent inflow of silver has eased the supply tightness in the London market, with spot prices now slightly below New York futures prices [2] - Approximately 48 million ounces of silver were withdrawn from the New York Commodity Exchange (Comex) during October [2] - A net outflow of about 15 million ounces from silver ETFs, which primarily store silver in London, has contributed to the replenished supply [2] Group 2 - The market is estimated to have nearly 200 million ounces of silver available for purchase or borrowing, indicating a significant recovery from previous shortages [2] - The increase in silver supply in London has exceeded the outflows from New York, Shanghai, and ETFs, suggesting that some supply may be sourced from private vaults or recycled silver [2] - Despite the easing of supply, the borrowing cost for silver in London remains high, with a one-month annualized borrowing rate around 5%, although it has decreased from over 30% during the peak crisis in October [2] Group 3 - The risk of tariffs has not been eliminated, as silver has been included in the U.S. government's Section 232 critical minerals investigation, which may lead to potential tariffs and trade restrictions [3]

Core Insights - Gold prices have increased by 65% from the beginning of the year through October 20, marking the strongest performance since 1979, while silver has outperformed with a 78% increase, reaching an all-time high [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Central banks have been major buyers of gold, purchasing over 1,000 tons annually for the past three years, driven by geopolitical tensions and a shift away from the dollar [3][4] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves, with 95% expecting overall gold reserves to rise in the next year [4] Group 2: Silver Demand Drivers - Silver's price surge is attributed to its critical role in various industries, including electronics, renewable energy, and medical devices, with demand expected to rise as the global economy grows [6][8] - There is consistent global demand for silver in jewelry, particularly in China and India, and mints regularly purchase silver for coin production [7][8] - The current market is experiencing a "silver squeeze," where demand is outpacing supply, suggesting that fundamental drivers for silver demand will persist despite recent price pullbacks [8]