Dewi John LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究负责人 Luke Lu LSEG 信用研究与量化建模部门主管 Robin Marshall 富时罗素 全球投资研究部主管 Jharonne Martis LSEG 消费者研究部门主管 Plamen Mitkov LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究团队负责人 Irene Shi LSEG 全球住房抵押支持证券（RMBS）研究高级经理 Tajinder Dhillon CFA，资深经理，收益与股票研究部门 Detlef Glow LSEG Lipper欧洲区研究主管 宏观方面 尽管仍存在全球性风险，包括地缘政治风险、美国乃至全球范围内可能出现的全面经济衰退风险等， 但到2026年，这些风险的严重程度相对较低。而且在传统的估值指标中，很难找到信用和股票市场存 在泡沫的有力证据。自2025年4月关税激增以来，全球金融状况已持续稳步改善，各国央行也已表 明，他们无意将资产负债表规模缩减至金融危机前的水平，以降低金融稳定风险。通胀率仍高于一些 央行的目标值，但几乎没有证据表明会重回高通胀状态。因此，如果2026年失业率上升速度加快，美 联储仍有进一步放宽政策 ...

惠誉预计，2026年澳大利亚全国房价将上涨3%至5%，进一步巩固RMBS底层资产质量。 相较之下，新西兰结构化融资市场的展望被上调至"改善"。惠誉指出，随着政策利率进入下行通道，实 际抵押贷款利率下降有望缓解借款人的偿债压力。在经济持续复苏、失业率维持低位的宏观环境下，借 款人整体偿付能力预计将有所提升。此外，结构性保护机制及充足的超额利差亦有助于控制潜在损失。 汽车贷款资产表现亦将受益于金融环境的整体改善。 惠誉预测，2026年新西兰房价将上涨3%至5%，从而增强抵押品价值，为证券化产品提供有力支撑。 新华财经北京11月21日电国际评级机构惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）在最新发布的报告中指出，澳大利亚 和新西兰的结构化融资市场在2026年的整体展望为"中性至改善"，其中新西兰市场前景更为积极。 报告显示，在澳大利亚，住房抵押贷款支持证券（RMBS）与汽车贷款支持证券（ABS）的资产表现展 望均为"中性"。 惠誉认为，政策利率趋稳、通胀放缓以及家庭收入改善，将有助于维持RMBS逾期率在较低水平。同 时，二手车价格逐步回归常态，叠加借款人还款意愿增强，为汽车ABS的稳定表现提供支撑。 （文章来源：新华财 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market is showing cautious optimism in the first half of 2025, rebounding from tariffs, interest rate uncertainties, and debt concerns, with stocks, bonds, and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors demonstrating resilience [5][6]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Themes - De-globalization, monetary policy divergence, and debt sustainability are the three dominant themes in the global macroeconomic landscape [6][8]. - Concerns over tariffs and trade tensions have highlighted the trend of de-globalization, with initial fears easing as the year progressed [6][8]. - The debt-to-GDP ratio in the US and UK has surpassed 100%, raising concerns about government debt sustainability and leading to a steeper yield curve [6][8]. Group 2: Market Performance - After a sharp sell-off in the first quarter due to tariff announcements, the stock market experienced a V-shaped recovery, with the S&P 500 showing strong earnings performance [8][10]. - Global market earnings revisions appear to have bottomed out, indicating a potential turning point as earnings expectations remain resilient [10]. - The retail sector saw a decline in earnings growth, with a projected -1.7% in the second quarter, marking the first negative growth since the pandemic [14]. Group 3: Real Estate and Mortgage-Backed Securities - The institutional residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market showed resilience due to stable new issuance and improving market sentiment [16]. - Housing activity has slightly rebounded, supported by increased inventory and builder incentives, helping to offset affordability pressures [16]. - The outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) issuance is expected to improve, with refinancing volumes anticipated to rise due to expected Fed rate cuts [8][19]. Group 4: Credit Market Outlook - Expectations of Fed rate cuts later in the year are providing new momentum for the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market, with revised forecasts for refinancing and reset issuance [19]. - The overall credit fundamentals for CLOs are expected to remain stable, with a slowdown in rating downgrades anticipated by year-end [19]. - The projected issuance for BSL new AAA and BB rated bonds is expected to narrow to 125 basis points and 500 basis points, respectively, by year-end [19].