业绩简评 2026 年 3 月 23 日，公司披露 2025 年年报，全年实现营收 294 亿 元，同比增长 32.5%，实现归母净利润 3.4 亿元，同比下降 26.9%； 其中 Q4 公司实现收入 109 亿元，同比增长 32.0%，环比增长 43.8%， 实现归母净利润 0.89 亿元，同比下降 55.3%，环比下降 17.6%。 低价订单交付压制短期盈利，高价订单交付占比有望逐步提升： 公司 Q4 实现销售毛利率 4.99%，环比下降 4.28pct，结合国内风 机价格于 2024 年前三季度实现触底，以及当前 1.5-2 年的项目交 付周期，预计 Q4 毛利率环比大幅下降主要受前期低价订单集中交 付影响。假设公司所有项目严格按照中标先后顺序进行交付，则当 前在手 45GW 订单中预计还有约 22%的项目为 2024 年 Q4 前中标的 低价订单。展望后续，预计 2026-2027 年高价订单在交付结构中 占比有望快速提升，并驱动制造端盈利能力实现明显改善。 在手订单维持高位，看好 2026 年出货提升：2025 年，公司实现风 机对外销售 18.2GW，同比增长 56.3%；新增订单约 24.6GW ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla plans to significantly increase its capital expenditure to over $20 billion by 2026, a substantial increase compared to the approximately $8.5 billion planned for 2025, indicating a "doubling" of investment [3][4]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Business Expansion - The increased capital expenditure will support the expansion and transformation of multiple business lines, including vertical integration in battery and lithium resource sectors [5]. - Tesla has begun producing battery packs for some Model Y vehicles using its self-developed 4680 battery cells, positioning this as a new supply source to address supply chain complexities due to trade barriers and tariffs [6]. - The company has achieved dual dry electrode production for the 4680 battery in Austin, with both anodes and cathodes manufactured locally, indicating a shift towards a more integrated supply structure [7]. Group 2: Lithium Refining and Local Production - Tesla's lithium refining plant has commenced pilot production, being one of the first facilities in North America to refine spodumene into lithium hydroxide [8]. - The Texas and Nevada LFP production lines are expected to start production in 2026, further promoting the localization of key materials and battery manufacturing [9]. - Tesla's projected installed capacity for the battery supply chain includes 7 GWh for Nevada LFP, 40 GWh for Texas 4680, 10 GWh for cathode materials, and 30 GWh for lithium refining [9][10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Dynamics - Tesla's automotive delivery for 2025 is projected at approximately 1.585 million units for Model 3/Y, with other models expected to deliver around 51,000 units, reflecting a more significant decline in the latter [13]. - The company reported a total gross margin of 20.1% for Q4, with an automotive gross margin (excluding credits) of 17.9%, impacted by delivery declines and rising costs due to tariffs and fixed cost dilution [15]. - Energy business revenue grew by 25% year-over-year, while automotive revenue declined by 11% in Q4, indicating a shift in revenue structure [16].