Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the lithium battery supply chain, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Xinzhou Bang, Hunan YN, and Fulian Precision [9][22]. Core Insights - The lithium battery production in March shows a significant increase, with battery production reaching 145.5 GWh, up 21.7% month-on-month, indicating strong seasonal demand [1]. - The report highlights the robust demand for energy storage both domestically and internationally, driven by the electrification of commercial vehicles and ongoing price increases in the lithium battery supply chain [1][5]. - The introduction of capacity pricing mechanisms in China and reduced tariffs in the U.S. are expected to stimulate energy storage demand [2]. - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is experiencing a transitional phase with weaker demand, while European sales continue to grow [3]. Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Supply Chain - March production data indicates a strong seasonal effect, with significant month-on-month increases in production across various components: positive electrode at 195,000 tons (+23.3%), negative electrode at 163,000 tons (+16.4%), separator at 2.06 billion square meters (+8.7%), and electrolyte at 108,000 tons (+18.8%) [1]. - The report anticipates price increases across the lithium battery supply chain, including lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F), separators, and copper foil, as demand tightens [4][5]. Energy Storage - In January 2026, China added 3.78 GW/10.90 GWh of new energy storage capacity, marking a year-on-year increase of 62%/106% [2]. - The U.S. saw a 116% year-on-year increase in large-scale storage installations, supported by a reduction in tariffs following a court ruling [2]. New Energy Vehicles - Domestic sales of new energy vehicles in January 2026 reached 596,000 units, a decrease of 19.9% year-on-year, attributed to a transitional phase in the old-for-new policy [3]. - In contrast, European sales of new energy vehicles (BEV + PHEV) reached 289,000 units in January 2026, up 19.4% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth due to new model launches and subsidies [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strong performance and market position, including: - Hunan YN (301358 CH) with a target price of 112.98 - Ningde Times (300750 CH) with a target price of 566.18 - Fulian Precision (300432 CH) with a target price of 29.38 - Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014 CH) with a target price of 96.96 - Xinzhou Bang (300037 CH) with a target price of 78.00 [9][22].

证券研究报告 碳酸锂供应紧张短期或将加剧 津巴布韦是全球第二大硬质锂矿供应地，2025 年津巴布韦出货量约 14 万吨 LCE，全球供给占比达 8.5%；津巴布韦也是我国第二大锂精矿进口国，根 据海关总署，2025 年我国进口锂辉石矿 775.1 万吨，其中从津巴布韦进口 120.4 万吨，占比达 15.5%。硫酸锂产能方面，津巴布韦仅有一座硫酸锂工 厂实现点火投产（华景科技硫酸锂冶炼厂 ATZ 项目，为中资企业华友钴业 旗下），年产能为 5 万吨硫酸锂，项目 25 年 1 月开工，25 年 10 月点火， 首条生产线于 2026 年 1 月投产，后续两条计划于同年 4 月投产，建设周期 约 1 年；中矿资源 3 万吨硫酸锂项目紧随其后，计划 2027 年投产。 锂盐加工产能落地后出口无忧，供给侧修复可期 工业/基础材料 津巴布韦锂矿出口禁令扰动影响可控 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 27 日│中国内地 动态点评 2 月 25 日，津巴布韦宣布暂停所有未加工矿产和锂精矿的出口（含在途）， 旨在加强矿产监管以及发展本土锂矿下游冶炼加工业务。我们认为此次津巴 布韦锂矿出口禁令对中长期供给侧扰动有限，一方面此次禁 ...

碳酸锂日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 3.47%至 173660 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 11250 元 /吨至 173000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 11250 元/吨至 169500 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗 颗粒）上涨 10000 元/吨至 163000 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 74 吨至 38451 吨。 2. 供给端，2 月 12 至 26 日，碳酸锂产量环比增加 1638 吨至 21822 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 1460 吨至 13484 吨，锂云母提锂环比减少 150 吨至 2812 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 250 吨至 3290 吨，回收 提锂环比增加 78 吨至 2236 吨；2 月碳酸锂产量预计环比下降 16.3%至 81930 吨，各原料提锂均有下 降。需求端，2 月三元材料排产环比下降 14.6%至 69250 吨，磷酸铁锂环比下降 10.7%至 354000 吨。 库存端，周度碳酸锂社会库存环比减少 2839 吨至 100093 吨，其中下游环比减少 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's sudden ban on lithium ore and concentrate exports has created significant disruptions in the global lithium supply chain, affecting nearly 20% of China's lithium raw material supply and potentially leading to a supply gap of approximately 14,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month starting in May 2026 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Impact of Zimbabwe's Ban - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all lithium ore and concentrate exports, including shipments already at sea, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote domestic processing [1][3]. - In 2025, China imported 7.75 million tons of lithium concentrate, with 1.2 million tons (19%) coming from Zimbabwe, highlighting the critical role of Zimbabwe in China's lithium supply [3]. - The ban is expected to lead to a significant increase in lithium prices, with domestic carbonate lithium futures prices surging to over 171,440 yuan per ton, reflecting a nearly 17% increase in just two trading days [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - The immediate market reaction saw a spike in lithium prices, with the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 162,000 yuan per ton, an increase of over 8% since the beginning of the month [4]. - Companies with integrated mining and processing capabilities in Zimbabwe are positioned to benefit from the ban, as they can still apply for export licenses while others face supply constraints [6]. - A total of 13 domestic companies with lithium carbonate production or lithium mining resources are now in the spotlight, with 7 of them forecasting significant profit increases for 2025 [7]. Group 3: Company Profiles and Strategies - The first tier of companies, termed "ban immune," includes Huayou Cobalt, which has established deep processing capacity in Zimbabwe and is set to produce lithium sulfate, allowing it to circumvent the export ban [9]. - Zhongjin Lingnan has a strong position with its control over the Bikita lithium mine, which allows it to apply for export licenses despite the ban, and it has a stockpile of 150,000 tons of lithium concentrate to buffer against short-term export restrictions [11]. - The second tier includes resource giants like Ganfeng Lithium, which has diversified global resources and is expected to see a significant increase in production from 200,000 tons to 500,000 tons by 2026, benefiting from rising lithium prices [11][13]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Implications - The ban is prompting a reevaluation of companies with overseas resources, local processing capabilities, or stable domestic sources, as their strategic value is being reassessed in the market [17]. - The surge in lithium carbonate futures and the rising stock prices of lithium mining companies reflect this market reassessment and the potential for long-term growth in the sector [17].

今天上午，A股市场的关注点主要集中在两方面。 另一方面是涨价题材继续活跃，光纤、培育钻石、数控刀具等板块上涨。 不过，涨价效应的正反面显现出来。今天上午，宁德时代（300750）、阳光电源（300274）、亿纬锂能（300014）等锂电、储能板块的龙头股跌幅较大。 一方面是此前被网友调侃成"古典算力"的算力龙头股纷纷走强。 其中，PCB龙头胜宏科技（300476）上涨9.23%，上午成交额为168.75亿元，居A股第一。数据显示，胜宏科技本周3个交易日累计上涨22.98%，最新市值 为2789亿元。此外，沪电股份（002463）涨停，股价创历史新高。英维克（002837）、生益科技（600183）、东山精密（002384）等个股上涨。 算力产业链上午大涨，光模块、铜缆高速连接、PCB等板块涨幅居前。 有观点认为，面对近来锂电产业链上游不断涨价的情况，市场担忧涨价效应能否顺畅传导，中下游环节的盈利稳定性面临考验。 中信证券最新观点表示，2月25日，津巴布韦矿业部发布锂矿出口禁令。预计2026年津巴布韦锂资源产量占全球12%，该国的锂矿出口禁令将导致中国碳 酸锂短期供应愈发紧缺，有望推动锂价大幅上涨。 截至上午收 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 3.4%至 166480 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 9750 元/ 吨至 161750 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 9750 元/吨至 158250 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 8500 元/吨至 153000 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 330 吨至 38525 吨。 2. 消息面，津巴布韦方面暂停所有原材料和锂精矿出口。 3. 供给端，2 月碳酸锂产量预计环比下降 16.3%至 81930 吨，各原料提锂均有下降。需求端，2 月三元 材料排产环比下降 14.6%至 69250 吨，磷酸铁锂环比下降 10.7%至 354000 吨。库存端，周度碳酸锂 社会库存环比减 2019 吨至 105463 吨，其中下游环比增加 3058 吨至 43657 吨，其他环节减少 4430 吨至 43450 吨，上游环比减少 647 吨至 18356 吨。 4. 资源端供给扰动，锂矿拍卖价格走 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 10.56%至 164120 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 8250 元 /吨至 152000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 8250 元/吨至 148500 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 7000 元/吨至 144500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 96 吨至 38855 吨。 2. 消息面，2026 年 2 月 19 日，受市场回暖推动，PLS 宣布将于今年 7 月重启西澳 Pilgangoora 的 Ngungaju 锂矿工厂(年产能约 20 万吨)，目前已全面启动为期约四个月的复产准备工作；美国媒体报道称美国 政府正考虑以"国家安全"为由，对约六个行业加征新一轮关税，知情人士称，拟议关税可能涵盖大 型电池、铸铁及铁制配件、塑料管道、工业化学品以及电网和电信设备等行业。 3. 供给端，2 月碳酸锂产量预计环比下降 16.3%至 81930 吨，各原料提锂均有下降。需求端，2 月三 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the latest data on lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price trends, trading volumes, open interests, and cost - profit analysis, to help investors understand the current situation of the lithium carbonate market [2][20][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 115.2%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 96.3% [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 840 yuan (-0.56%) and a weekly increase of 16,640 yuan (12.53%). The trading volume is 304,798 lots, a daily decrease of 47,079 lots (-13.38%) and a weekly decrease of 226,926 lots (-42.68%). The open interest is 353,975 lots, a daily decrease of 2,556 lots (-0.72%) and a weekly increase of 24,198 lots (7.34%) [4]. - **CME and LME Futures**: CME and LME also have relevant lithium hydroxide futures data, including opening prices, highs, lows, last prices, changes, and settlement prices [14]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt**: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (3.62%); the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,500 yuan (3.35%) [20]. - **Cell Materials**: The prices of various cell materials also fluctuated. The price of energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 52,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,090 yuan (2.13%) [20]. - **Price Spreads**: The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract shows certain seasonal fluctuations. The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands also vary, such as - 800 yuan for Shengxin Lithium Energy and 0 yuan for Tianqi Lithium Industry [29][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 37,282 lots, an increase of 1,755 lots from the previous day [34]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and the production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticizing/smelting methods show different trends. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also fluctuate [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is driven by multiple factors, including supply agreements, policy support for energy storage, market sentiment, and seasonal demand expectations [3][4][5][6]. Supply Side Analysis - PLS and Tianyi Lithium Industry signed a two-year agreement for lithium spodumene concentrate with a minimum price of $1,000/ton, providing price stability and boosting market confidence in lithium prices [3]. - As of February 5, lithium carbonate production decreased to 21,800 tons, a 2.68% decline from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 47.81% [7]. - The supply is expected to contract further in February due to holiday-related production halts and maintenance, with CIF prices for 6.0% spodumene dropping to $2,000/ton, a decrease of $350/ton [8]. Demand Side Analysis - The domestic energy storage system bidding scale increased by 13.7% month-on-month in January, indicating strong demand growth supported by new policies [4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is showing a divergence, with lithium iron phosphate maintaining a high capacity utilization rate of 73%, while ternary materials are at 62% due to declining sales from electric vehicle manufacturers [11]. - In January, China's automotive production and sales remained stable, with new energy vehicle sales showing a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [11]. Market Sentiment and Trading Dynamics - There was a net inflow of 1.1 billion yuan into lithium carbonate contracts, with bullish sentiment reflected in rising prices and increased trading volumes [5]. - The market is experiencing a seasonal rhythm, with expectations of demand recovery post-holiday, driven by factors such as electric vehicle exports and energy storage policy support [6]. - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased to 104,000 tons, a 0.73% decline, indicating a continued destocking trend across various market segments [14]. Summary of Market Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics indicate a strong upward trend in lithium carbonate prices, supported by supply constraints and robust demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [15][17]. - The market is advised to monitor post-holiday demand recovery and the pace of overseas mining resumption, as these factors will significantly influence future price movements [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 2.04% to 137,230 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 136,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 500 yuan/ton to 132,500 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 750 yuan/ton to 133,750 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 940 tons to 35,537 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons. The production schedule of battery - grade lithium carbonate in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month to 58,835 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% month - on - month to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% month - on - month to 69,250 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% month - on - month to 354,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, other links decreasing by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 647 tons to 18,356 tons [3]. - Previously, the spot trading volume increased, mainly from downstream. The downstream's Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and there has been some strategic stocking. If the price runs strongly in the short term, actual purchases may turn cold, which will drag down the price. The January shipment data from Chile increased significantly month - on - month, but it was due to early shipments because of the Spring Festival, and the volume is unsustainable. The significant supply pressure on China may be reflected after the Spring Festival. At the same time, domestic production will gradually resume in March. The key will be whether there is an unexpected increase in demand. If it is only the same as in December last year, the inventory reduction of over 6,000 tons in February will turn into a tight - balance or slight inventory accumulation in March. However, the continuous decline in post - festival inventory levels may become a significant bullish support, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 137,340 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026, up 340 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 135,880 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,900 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars [5]. - Among lithium ores, the prices of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) remained unchanged [5]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 136,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 132,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan. In the lithium hydroxide market, the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 133,750 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 140,250 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 123,200 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 17.25 US dollars/kg. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged at 125,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Regarding price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan to - 2,250 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 862 yuan to - 13,934.95 yuan/ton [5]. - In the precursor and cathode material market, among ternary precursors, the prices of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), and ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) remained unchanged. Among ternary materials, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 182,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 174,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 177,450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 199,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan. The prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) increased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of lithium manganate (power type) and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged. The price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) remained unchanged at 407,000 yuan/ton [5]. - In the battery market, the prices of 523 square ternary cells (yuan/Wh), 523 soft - pack ternary cells (yuan/Wh), and square lithium iron phosphate cells (yuan/Wh) remained unchanged. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 6.25 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan. The price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.318 yuan/Wh, up 0.003 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - **Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][22][25]. - **Precursor and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [27][29][31]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [33][36]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 2025 to February 2026 [38][41]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉 (Li: 5.5% - 6.5%),外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉 (Li: 3.2% - 4.2%),外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O: 2.5%), and外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O: 6%) from 2024 to February 2026 [42][43].