泸州老窖 20251128 摘要 白酒行业正经历深度调整期，外部环境和政策影响是主要压力来源，行 业触底或拐点尚未到来，预计未来一段时间内行业压力依然存在。消费 环境疲软是根本原因，政策影响边际递减但时间不定。 泸州老窖四季度及全年业绩预期面临压力，报表数据与终端动销情况基 本匹配，但动销压力影响库存消化。公司坚持渠道政策，不弥补低价甩 货造成的亏损，价格相对稳定。 泸州老窖暂未披露 2026 年经营规划，将根据市场环境和经济规律进行 规划，保持销售生态链健康。公司不对经销商强行规定打款要求，经销 商按需进货，但需符合公司销售政策。 泸州老窖高低度白酒产品表现分化，低度产品相对坚挺，公司将综合考 虑量价平衡，维护高档酒品牌形象。低度 1,573 表现稳健，低度化趋势 缓慢而长期，公司将继续重视并在传统区域导入低度产品。 老字号特曲致力于品牌复兴，价格保持稳定在 200 元左右，受行业调整 影响较小。公司将在 100~300 元价格段加强渠道建设和消费者培育， 并倾斜资源至泸州老窖系列。 Q&A 泸州老窖在 2025 年三季度的经营情况如何，是否有新的变化？ 2025 年从一季度开始，泸州老窖的业绩逐步放缓。最 ...

Industry Overview - The Chinese liquor market is currently facing a downturn, as evidenced by the subdued atmosphere at the Chengdu Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, which is typically a vibrant event [1][3] - Attendance at the fair has decreased significantly, with a reported drop of over 20% in foot traffic compared to the previous two years, reflecting the broader challenges in the liquor industry [3][6] Market Dynamics - Major liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe have reduced their promotional activities at the fair, indicating a shift in focus amid economic pressures [3][5] - The fair attracted over 6,600 exhibitors and covered an exhibition area of 325,000 square meters, marking a record high in terms of scale, despite the decline in visitor numbers [3][6] Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable trend of consumption downgrade in the liquor market, with high-end liquor demand weakening and inventory piling up [5][6] - Traditional consumer groups, such as those from real estate and finance, have been impacted, prompting premium liquor brands to pivot towards more affordable options [5][6] Competitive Landscape - Leading liquor companies are increasingly focusing on high-cost performance products priced under 100 yuan, which is intensifying competition and squeezing smaller local distilleries [5][6] - The industry is experiencing a consolidation trend, with larger companies gaining market share while smaller firms struggle to survive [6] Financial Performance - In 2024, the production of large-scale liquor enterprises is expected to decline by 1.8%, while sales revenue is projected to reach 796.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [6] - Profit totals are anticipated to rise by 7.76% to 250.9 billion yuan, indicating that while profits are growing, the overall production is decreasing, highlighting the challenges faced by smaller enterprises [6]