⚫ 2025 年回顾：国内服务消费占比已提升至 47%，预计将进入快速增长 阶段，成为居民消费的主要构成部分。从政策着力点看，政策的长期性 和稳定性更受重视，服务消费在政策布局中的地位得到进一步凸显。从 估值角度看，社会服务板块当前市盈率仍低于近五年平均值，修复空间 仍存。 ⚫ 出行链：2025 年旅游市场收入承压，景区"冷热不均"成为突出特征。假 期时间的增加与春秋假制度的落地和推广将有效延长消费时长，出行需 求加速释放，行业迎来边际改善。 ⚫ 免税：机场免税市场格局迎来重要变革，引入国际免税零售商与机场股 权投资的双重创新有望为口岸免税市场注入新活力。政策利好与封关效 应直接催化离岛免税消费热潮，封关初期吸引的购物客流带动市场迅速 回暖。 ⚫ 餐饮：连锁化进程加速，头部餐饮企业通过标准化运营和品牌效应实现 快速扩张，行业预计将迎来加速出清，区域性连锁品牌加速向全国范围 扩店，具备规模优势和品牌效应的连锁龙头有望获得更大发展空间。 [Table_Title] 向阳花木易为春 [Table_ReportType] ——2026 年社会服务行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.36%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.49% [12][13] - The total market turnover reached 1.7487 trillion yuan, an increase of 71.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [12][13] Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance, particularly in retail and dairy, with stocks like Zhuangyuan Pasture hitting the daily limit [3][13] - The Hainan sector experienced a rapid rise in the afternoon, with Hainan Haiyao and Hainan Qiche reaching the daily limit [3][7] - The commercial aerospace concept continued to perform well, with Huati Technology and Western Materials achieving two consecutive limits [3][13] - The controllable nuclear fusion concept also showed strength, with Wangzi New Materials achieving two limits in three days [3][13] - Conversely, sectors such as precious metals and semiconductors saw significant declines [3][13] Company Specifics - Pingtan Development announced that its stock price had risen significantly in a short period, deviating from its fundamentals, and urged investors to assess market risks rationally [5][15] - The company reported that its main business operations, including afforestation, timber processing, and trade, remain normal, with no significant changes in its operational environment [5][15] Hainan Free Trade Zone Developments - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to officially implement full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, marking a new phase in regional openness [9][19] - The policy rollout is expected to benefit consumers by lowering prices for goods purchased on the island [9][19] - China Duty Free Group announced it won bids for duty-free store projects at Shanghai airports, indicating growth potential in the duty-free shopping sector [9][19] - UBS reported that the optimization of Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping policy is expected to drive sales growth for China Duty Free, although this has not yet been fully reflected in the market [9][19] - CITIC Securities indicated that Hainan could become a hotspot for industrial investment, with high-end manufacturing, aviation logistics, and digital economy sectors likely to cluster in the region [9][19]

今天，A股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.36%，深证成指上涨0.66%，创业板指上涨0.49%。全市场成交额17487亿元，较上日成交额放量 719亿元。 从板块来看，大消费板块全天走强，零售、乳业方向领涨，庄园牧场等多股涨停；海南板块午后快速拉升，海南海药、海汽集团涨停；商业航天概念延续 强势，华体科技、西部材料均实现"2连板"；可控核聚变概念表现强势，王子新材实现"3天2板"。贵金属、半导体等板块跌幅居前。 今日尾盘，多只高位股跳水，平潭发展14:55左右突然直线跳水，从涨近5%跳水至跌超7%，成交额为65.33亿元，位列同花顺个股人气榜第一。海峡创 新、合富中国、百大集团等个股尾盘纷纷下跌。 平潭发展12月15日晚发布公告称，公司股票短期内价格涨幅较大，已严重背离公司基本面。公司当前的滚动市盈率、市净率与同行业情况有较大差异。公 司提请广大投资者充分了解股票市场风险因素，理性判断，注意投资风险。公司主要业务为造林营林、林木产品加工与销售、贸易业务、与平潭综合实验 区开放开发的有关业务，目前公司的生产经营正常，经营情况及内外部经营环境未发生重大变化。 海南自贸概念上涨 中国中免日前发布公告称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the duty-free operations at Shanghai airports, highlighting the transfer of management rights to China Duty Free Group and Dufoor, marking the end of Japan Duty Free's 26-year operation at these airports [3][5]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Management Transfer - Shanghai Airport announced the signing of a contract on December 17, transferring duty-free management rights to China Duty Free Group and Dufoor, covering multiple terminals at both Pudong and Hongqiao airports [3][5]. - This transfer signifies the first large-scale entry of foreign duty-free operators into China's airport duty-free sector [3]. Contract Details - The management rights are set for 8 years, from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2033, with a revenue model based on "fixed rent + commission" [5]. - Fixed rents for Pudong T1 and T2 are 3141 RMB/㎡/month and 3090 RMB/㎡/month, respectively, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 24% [5]. - The new contract introduces an increase in operational area by 1564 square meters and expands product categories to include mobile phones, drones, baby products, health foods, and more [5]. Changes in Revenue Model - The revenue model for Shanghai Airport has shifted from a minimum guarantee based on sales to a fixed rent plus commission structure, which is expected to enhance revenue stability [5][6]. - The airport will also establish joint ventures with the new operators, allowing it to earn both rental income and a share of operational profits [6]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for duty-free operations is evolving, with a notable reduction in commission rates to support operators in increasing sales [6]. - Japan Duty Free's exit from the Shanghai airport market is attributed to a lack of support from its major shareholder, China Duty Free Group, which now directly competes for these contracts [7][8]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, Shanghai Airport's stock price rose over 7%, while China Duty Free's stock fell more than 4% [10].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai International Airport Co., Ltd. has signed contracts for the transfer of duty-free shop operating rights at both Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports, which is expected to positively impact the company's revenue from 2026 to 2033 [4][11][16]. Group 1: Contract Details - The contract with Dufour (Shanghai) Commercial Co., Ltd. for the Pudong International Airport (T1 terminal and S1 satellite hall) has a transfer period of 3+5 years, starting from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2033 [4]. - The contract with China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. for the Pudong International Airport (T2 terminal and S2 satellite hall) has a transfer period of 5+3 years, also from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2033 [7]. - The contract for Hongqiao International Airport with China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. has a similar transfer period of 5+3 years, from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2033 [11]. Group 2: Financial Terms - The monthly fixed fee for the T1 terminal is set at ¥3141 per square meter, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 24% based on sales [5]. - The monthly fixed fee for the T2 terminal is set at ¥3090 per square meter, with similar commission rates [8]. - The monthly fixed fee for Hongqiao International Airport is set at ¥2827 per square meter, with commission rates ranging from 8% to 22% [12]. Group 3: Performance and Guarantees - Each party is required to provide a performance bond of ¥150 million for the contracts at Pudong International Airport and ¥30 million for the contract at Hongqiao International Airport [6][10]. - The contracts include provisions for performance assessments, with the possibility of contract renewal based on meeting specified criteria [4][7][11]. Group 4: Strategic Goals - The agreements aim to enhance the competitive position of Shanghai Airport's duty-free business by optimizing resources and improving the shopping experience for travelers [13]. - The contracts also emphasize the introduction of traditional Chinese products and online booking services for duty-free shopping [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China National Duty Free Group, has been awarded the contract for duty-free store projects at Shanghai Pudong International Airport and Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport [1] Group 1 - The company received a "Notice of Winning Bid" from Shanghai International Airport Co., confirming its status as the winning bidder for the duty-free store projects [1] - Contracts have been signed with Shanghai Airport and its subsidiary, Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport Co., for the operation rights of duty-free stores at both airports [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Airport (600009.SH) has signed a contract for the transfer of duty-free shop operating rights, indicating a strategic move to enhance its retail operations at key airport locations [1] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract includes the transfer of duty-free shop operating rights at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (T1 terminal and S1 satellite hall) with Dufry [1] - Additionally, the contract involves the transfer of duty-free shop operating rights at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (T2 terminal and S2 satellite hall) with China Duty Free Group [1] - The agreement also covers the transfer of duty-free shop operating rights at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport with China Duty Free Group [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Airport (600009.SH) has signed a duty-free store operating rights transfer contract for its airports, indicating a strategic move to enhance its retail operations and revenue streams [1] Group 1: Contract Details - The contract includes the transfer of duty-free store operating rights at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (Terminal 1 and S1 Satellite Hall) with Dufry [1] - Additionally, the contract involves the transfer of duty-free store operating rights at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (Terminal 2 and S2 Satellite Hall) with China Duty Free Group [1] - The agreement also covers the transfer of duty-free store operating rights at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport with China Duty Free Group [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.81% [1] - The company successfully won the operating rights for duty-free shops at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport T3 terminal and several other ports, enhancing its channel advantages in major international airports and ports [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 662 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 32.21% [1] - The company maintains a target price of 79.31 yuan based on a 35x PE ratio of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 [1] Business Expansion - As of January 2025, the company has obtained operating rights for duty-free shops in 13 cities, nearly doubling from the previous 7 [1] - New stores have been awarded in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Xi'an, Fuzhou, Chengdu, and Tianjin, enhancing the core city layout [1] International Market Development - The company has made significant strides in overseas expansion, entering the Vietnamese market for the first time this year with duty-free shops now open at Hanoi Noi Bai and Phu Quoc airports [1] - In the Hong Kong and Macau regions, the company has secured operating rights for the MCM pop-up store at Hong Kong Airport and the M8 city store in Macau, with plans to open these stores in the second half of the year [1] Market Outlook - With the recovery of consumer confidence, the restoration of international routes, and the introduction of visa-free policies, the demand for duty-free consumption is expected to be released [1] - The company's diversified channel layout is anticipated to drive long-term quality growth, maintaining solid value [1]