事件：公司发布2024 年年报及2025 年一季报。2024 年，公司实现营收3221.16 亿元，同比减少6.60%； 归母净利润73.62 亿元，同比减少38.36%；扣非归母净利68.41 亿元，同比减少34.55%。2024Q4，公司 实现营收792.60亿元，同比减少11.43%、环比减少0.43%；归母净利润14.80 亿元，同比减少58.82%、环 比增加10.63%；扣非归母净利13.53 亿元，同比减少56.62%、环比增加7.98%。2025Q1，公司实现营收 728.80 亿元，同比减少9.82%、环比减少8.05%；归母净利润24.34 亿元，同比增加26.37%、环比增加 64.49%；扣非归母净利23.99 亿元，同比增加52.22%、环比增加77.31%。 点评：产销量小幅下滑，25Q1 毛利率同环比改善① 量：钢材销量小幅下滑。2024 年，公司钢铁销量 5159 万吨，同比下滑0.6%；公司优化产品结构，增加冷轧、厚板产品销量，同比+3.4%、+9.2%，减少 热轧、钢管、长材、其他钢材销量。2025Q1，钢铁销量1223 万吨，同比-2.3%。2025年经营目标，销售 钢材 ...

公司发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报，业绩符合市场预期。2024 年，公司实现营收3221.16 亿元，同比 下降6.6%，归母净利润73.62 亿元，同比下降38.36%；24Q4 公司实现归母净利润14.8 亿元，同比下降 58.82%，环比增长10.63%；25Q1 公司实现归母净利润24.34 亿元，同比增长26.37%，环比增长 64.49%。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，钢价低于预期；铁矿石和焦煤价格高于预期，成本高位影响公司盈利水 平 优势产品维持强势，打造差异化竞争能力。根据公司公告，2024 年，公司持续强化产品差异化能力， 冷轧汽车板和硅钢产品持续保持高市占率，全年实现"1+1+N"产品销量3059 万吨，同比上升9.6%，出 口销量606.7 万吨，同比上升3.9%。 公司重视分红，2024 年分红率预计约61.34％。根据公司公告，2024 年下半年公司拟派发现金股利0.1 元/股（含税，下同），且考虑到2024 年9 月公司已按每股现金股利0.11元分配半年度利润，2024 年度 预计派发现金股利合计0.21 元/股，预计分红总额占合并报表归属于母公司股东净利润的61.34％， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.64 CNY per share [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 322.12 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 6.60% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.36 billion CNY, down 38.36% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.88 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.43 billion CNY [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's steel sales volume was 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year, while the average product price was 4,507 CNY per ton, down 6.89% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 improved to 7.22%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 CNY per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion CNY, with an overall annual distribution of 4.52 billion CNY, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on optimizing its product structure, with a sales volume of high-end products increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [3]. - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 52.24 million tons of steel in 2025, representing a 1.3% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in international expansion, with export sales reaching 6.07 million tons in 2024, up 3.9% year-on-year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant improvement in Q1 profitability, with a continuous optimization of product structure [1]. - Despite a decrease in revenue and net profit for 2024, the first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery in net profit [1][2]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and international expansion, which are expected to drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 72.880 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.82% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 26.37% year-on-year to 2.434 billion yuan [1][2]. Sales and Margins - Steel sales in 2024 were 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year. The company aims to sell 52.24 million tons in 2025, a 1.3% increase [2]. - The average product price in 2024 was 4,507 yuan/ton, down 6.89% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 7.22% in Q1 2025, up 2.09 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion yuan, with an overall payout of 4.516 billion yuan for the year, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is optimizing its product structure, with a focus on high-strength steel and silicon steel products, which are gaining market share [3]. - Key projects are progressing, including the establishment of high-end steel production capacities [3]. - The company is expanding its international presence, with a notable increase in export volumes [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.830 billion yuan, 11.122 billion yuan, and 12.427 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [4][5].