研究早观点 2026 年 1 月 13 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,165.29 | 1.09 | | 深证成指 | | 14,366.91 | 1.75 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,789.92 | 0.65 | | 中小板指 | | 8,811.04 | 1.60 | | 创业板指 | | 3,388.34 | 1.82 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,511.84 | 2.43 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证纺服】行业周报-迅销集团公布 FY2026Q1 季度业绩，上调 FY2026 业绩指引 【行业评论】太阳能：202512 光伏行业月度报告-11 月光伏新增装机 同比下降 11.9%，组件逆变器出口同环比增长 【公司评论】西麦食品(002956.SZ)：西麦食品深度报告：燕麦龙头引 领行业发展，大健康二次增长空 ...

燕麦行业量价齐升，产品及渠道多维度发力助推行业发展。国民健康饮食理念的提升，驱动2024 年中 国燕麦行业的市场规模突破百亿，燕麦行业在国内当前仍处于朝阳行业，在渗透率持续提升叠加复合燕 麦高增驱动下，整个行业呈现量价齐升态势。中国燕麦食品行业目前CR3 约为51.9%，其中，西麦食品 市占率超过20%，位列第一，相比于日美市场集中度极高的竞争格局，我国燕麦头部企业还需持续打磨 各自壁垒。从燕麦行业渠道增量来看，线上渠道保持持续高增长，抖音天猫京东等均不断提供增量贡献 更高收入占比，线下方面流通渠道继续下沉稳增长，零食量贩与山姆会员店等新兴渠道也呈现较好增长 态势。 中国燕麦龙头，营收稳健增长。西麦食品公司成功打造了涵盖"育种、种植、研发、生产、销售"的完整 产业链，2024 全年公司实现营业收入18.96亿元，同比增长20.16%；归母净利润1.33 亿元，同比增长 15.36%，规模在行业内遥遥领先。公司2025 年实施员工持股计划，加强业绩激励。公司2020-2024 年5 年营收CAGR 为16.65%，公司作为行业绝对龙头，继续引领燕麦产品在中国市场的渗透。 盈利预测、估值分析和投资建议：预计公司2 ...

公司近一年市场表现 | 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 | 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元/股）： | 7.08 | | 每股资本公积（元/股）： | 3.06 | | 每股未分配利润（元/ | 2.62 | | 股）： | | 资料来源：常闻 熊鹏 执业登记编码：S0760525080002 刘清羽 执业登记编码：S0760525070001 邮箱：liuqingyu@sxzq.com 休闲食品 西麦食品（002956.SZ） 买入-A(维持) | 市场数据：2026 年 1 | 月 | 9 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | | 27.47 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 2.23 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 2.23 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 61.32 | 燕麦龙头引领行业发展，大健康二次增长空间广阔 2026 年 1 月 12 日 公司研究/深度分析 投资要点： 中国燕麦龙头，营收稳健增长。西麦食品公司成功打造了涵盖"育种、 种植、研发、生产、销售"的完整产业链，2024 全年公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 27.50 CNY per share based on a 25x PE ratio for 2026E [4][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the Chinese oatmeal market, with its competitive advantages in brand marketing, product innovation, supply chain, and distribution channels continuing to expand. The report anticipates significant growth potential and profit elasticity for the company in the future [1][4]. - The oatmeal market in China has seen rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding double digits over the past seven years, and it is expected to continue growing as health awareness increases [4][26]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 1,578 million CNY in 2023 to 3,221 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 19% [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 115 million CNY in 2023 to 320 million CNY in 2027, with a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.52 CNY to 1.43 CNY over the same period [3][11]. - The report forecasts a net asset return (ROE) improvement from 7.9% in 2023 to 18.4% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [3][11]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing health consciousness among consumers, which is driving the rapid penetration of oatmeal in the market. The oatmeal segment has grown from a market size of approximately 40-50 billion CNY in 2018 to around 114 billion CNY in 2023, with expectations to reach 125 billion CNY by 2025 [26][32]. - The company has established a strong market position, surpassing competitors and achieving a market share of over 20% in 2023, solidifying its status as the leading brand in the oatmeal sector [33][35]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive competitive edge, including a strong marketing strategy, a full supply chain layout, and robust product innovation capabilities. This has allowed the company to maintain its leadership position in the oatmeal market [4][33]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to respond quickly to market trends and consumer demands, which has been crucial in expanding its product offerings and market reach [4][33].

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food's stock price has shown a significant increase of 51.37% year-to-date, indicating strong market performance despite a recent slight decline of 2.07% in intraday trading [2]. Company Overview - Ximai Food, established on August 1, 2001, and listed on June 19, 2019, is located in the High-tech Development Zone of Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of oat-based food products [2]. - The revenue composition of Ximai Food includes: composite oat flakes (48.38%), pure oat flakes (36.62%), cold oat products (7.52%), and others (4.04%) [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ximai Food achieved a revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.90% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Ximai Food has distributed a total of 470 million yuan in dividends, with 222 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Ximai Food reached 11,800, an increase of 7.63% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 7.09% to 18,980 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Baodao Huitai Preferred Mixed A (016840) as the fifth largest shareholder with 4.204 million shares, an increase of 602,600 shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating strong business performance and investor interest [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 19, Ximai Food's stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 25.71 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 5.74 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has risen 58.20% year-to-date, with a 6.95% increase over the last five trading days, 24.93% over the last 20 days, and 18.37% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Business Overview - Ximai Food, established on August 1, 2001, and listed on June 19, 2019, specializes in the research, production, and sales of oat-based foods [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 48.38% from composite oat flakes, 36.62% from pure oat flakes, 7.52% from cold oat products, and 4.04% from other sources [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ximai Food reported a revenue of 1.696 billion CNY, reflecting an 18.34% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million CNY, up 21.90% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 470 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 222 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of November 10, 2025, the number of shareholders in Ximai Food decreased by 11.78% to 11,300, while the average number of tradable shares per person increased by 13.35% to 19,736 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Bodao Huitai Preferred Mixed A, which increased its stake by 60.26% to 4.204 million shares, and Huaxia Anyang 6-month holding period Mixed A, which is a new shareholder with 2.676 million shares [3].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that the company, Ximai Food (002956.SZ), has achieved high growth in both revenue and profit, positioning itself as a leader in the oat market [5][7]. - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 547 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.92%, and a net profit of 50.59 million yuan, up 21.00% year-on-year [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached approximately 205 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.40%, indicating improved operational quality [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters improved by 1.03 percentage points to 43.64%, driven by a decrease in oat raw material procurement costs [7]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.23 percentage points and 0.63 percentage points, respectively, indicating effective cost control measures [7]. - The report projects the company’s revenue for 2025-2027 to be 2.448 billion, 3.111 billion, and 3.735 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.1%, 27.1%, and 20.1% respectively [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on new product development and expanding into health-oriented markets, which are expected to drive future growth [7]. - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy-A" based on the company's strong revenue and profit growth potential [7]. - The company continues to leverage online channels like Douyin and expand its presence in offline retail, contributing to its growth strategy [7].

Core Insights - The company demonstrated a combination of "high-quality growth + cost control optimization" in Q3, with both revenue and profit increasing, and improvements in gross and net profit margins [1] - The new product lines and the second growth curve in health and wellness have shown potential, indicating sustainable growth in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved operating revenue of 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.59 million yuan, up 21.00%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 49.19 million yuan, a significant increase of 86.30% [2] - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.34%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 132.08 million yuan, up 21.90% [2] - The profit exceeded market expectations, driven by strong growth in composite oatmeal products, stable sales of pure oatmeal products, and steady growth in cold oatmeal products [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters improved by 1.03 percentage points to 43.64%, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs for oats [2] - The sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.23 percentage points and 0.63 percentage points to 28.98% and 4.96%, respectively, indicating effective cost control measures [2] Future Growth Potential - With further cost benefits from oats and ongoing expense optimization, the company's profit margins are expected to improve [3] - The company reported a net operating cash flow of approximately 205 million yuan for Q1-Q3, a year-on-year increase of 57.40%, indicating improved operational quality [3] - New product launches and diversified channels are seen as future growth catalysts, with a focus on health-oriented products and expansion in online and offline sales channels [3] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to have significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years, with expected revenues of 2.448 billion, 3.111 billion, and 3.735 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 29.1%, 27.1%, and 20.1% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 185 million, 249 million, and 310 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 38.8%, 35.0%, and 24.4% respectively [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 26.9, 19.9, and 16.0 times for the years 2025-2027, leading to an upgraded investment rating of "Buy-A" [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy-A" [6] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated "high-quality growth + cost control optimization" in Q3, with both revenue and profit increasing, alongside improvements in gross and net profit margins. The potential for continued revenue and profit growth is evident from new products and the health-focused second growth curve [2][4] - In Q3, the company achieved operating revenue of 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50.59 million yuan, up 21.00% year-on-year. The first three quarters saw cumulative revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.34%, and a net profit of 132.08 million yuan, up 21.90% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is benefiting from a reduction in raw material costs, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.03 percentage points to 43.64% in the first three quarters. Additionally, the sales and management expense ratios have decreased, indicating effective cost control measures [4][5] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 2.448 billion, 3.111 billion, and 3.735 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 29.1%, 27.1%, and 20.1% [6][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 185 million, 250 million, and 310 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of 38.8%, 35.0%, and 24.4% [6][11] - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.83, 1.12, and 1.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining stable cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of approximately 205 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 57.40%. This indicates improved operational quality and a safety cushion [5] - The introduction of new products, particularly in the health food segment, and the expansion into online channels like Douyin, along with offline retail strategies, are expected to drive future growth [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 39.31% and a recent surge in trading activity, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [2]. Company Overview - Ximai Food, established on August 1, 2001, and listed on June 19, 2019, is located in the High-tech Development Zone of Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of oat-based food products [2]. - The main revenue composition includes: composite oat flakes (48.38%), pure oat flakes (36.62%), cold oat products (7.52%), and other products (4.04%) [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ximai Food achieved a revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.90% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Ximai Food has distributed a total of 470 million yuan in dividends, with 222 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Ximai Food was 12,800, a decrease of 10.56% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 11.81% to 17,412 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Baodao Huitai Preferred Mixed A (016840) as the fifth largest circulating shareholder with 4.204 million shares, an increase of 602,600 shares from the previous period [3].