业绩提速，利润释放，倍增空间 西麦食品（002956）深度报告 公司是中国燕麦龙头，领先优势持续扩大，且品牌营销、产品、供应链、渠道等多 维度竞争力突出。在燕麦行业加速 β 下，公司兼具强 α 属性，看好公司未来倍增成 长空间以及利润弹性释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,578 | 1,896 | 2,263 | 2,707 | 3,221 | | (+/-)% | 18.9% | 20.2% | 19.3% | 19.6% | 19.0% | | 净利润(归母) | 115 | 133 | 180 | 245 | 320 | | (+/-)% | 6.1% | 15.4% | 35.3% | 35.9% | 30.8% | | 每股净收益(元) | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.81 | 1.10 | 1.43 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% ...

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food's stock price has shown a significant increase of 51.37% year-to-date, indicating strong market performance despite a recent slight decline of 2.07% in intraday trading [2]. Company Overview - Ximai Food, established on August 1, 2001, and listed on June 19, 2019, is located in the High-tech Development Zone of Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of oat-based food products [2]. - The revenue composition of Ximai Food includes: composite oat flakes (48.38%), pure oat flakes (36.62%), cold oat products (7.52%), and others (4.04%) [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ximai Food achieved a revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.90% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Ximai Food has distributed a total of 470 million yuan in dividends, with 222 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Ximai Food reached 11,800, an increase of 7.63% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 7.09% to 18,980 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Baodao Huitai Preferred Mixed A (016840) as the fifth largest shareholder with 4.204 million shares, an increase of 602,600 shares from the previous period [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Alcohol Industry**: The liquor sector, particularly Moutai, has experienced price fluctuations, dropping below 1,600 yuan due to year-end cash recovery. However, after the digestion of pessimistic sentiment, a buying opportunity may arise in the liquor sector [1][4]. - **Food and Beverage Sector**: This sector is expected to see a rebound due to low expectations and low holdings, with CPI recovery and micro-consumption data resonating with macroeconomic trends [1][5]. - **Light Industry**: Focus on export opportunities, with recommendations for companies like Leshushi (leading market share in Africa for sanitary products) and Jiangxin Home (successful expansion in Vietnam) [1][7]. - **Textile Manufacturing**: Overseas clothing demand remains strong, with U.S. retail growth outpacing wholesale. However, caution in procurement due to tariffs has led to low inventory levels [1][8]. - **Snack Industry**: The sector shows significant improvement in fundamentals, with increased store openings and enhanced terminal sales performance [1][9]. - **Pig Farming Industry**: Currently undergoing accelerated capacity reduction, with a notable decline in breeding sow inventory. The industry is facing deep losses, but policy guidance may elevate future pig price expectations [1][24]. Company-Specific Insights - **New Dairy Industry**: New Dairy's pure oat products show stable growth, with compound oat flakes growing rapidly. The company is expected to accelerate revenue in Q4 due to declining import prices [1][6]. - **Angel Yeast**: The company benefits from declining raw material costs, with steady revenue growth and improvements in domestic and overseas yeast operations [1][6]. - **XGIMI Technology**: Anticipated revenue growth from domestic market outsourcing and acquisitions, with expected increases in overseas revenue due to new product launches [1][13][14]. - **Snack Industry Companies**: Companies like Gu Ming and Hu Shang are expected to benefit from internal growth and product expansion, achieving significant same-store sales growth [1][22][23]. - **Pork Producers**: Companies with low-cost advantages and strong cash flow, such as Muyuan, Wens, and DeKang, are recommended for investment due to their resilience against cyclical downturns [1][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Trends**: The snack industry is projected to see further profit margin improvements due to stable competition and expanded procurement scales [1][12]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The planting sector is highlighted for its potential due to global agricultural supply-demand dynamics and the upcoming IPO of Syngenta, which may attract attention to the entire sector [1][26][27]. - **Retail Sector**: The hotel industry is recovering, with companies like Huazhu Group and Tongcheng Travel recommended for their strong performance driven by business travel demand [1][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed industries and companies.

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating strong business performance and investor interest [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 19, Ximai Food's stock price increased by 2.02%, reaching 25.71 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 5.74 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has risen 58.20% year-to-date, with a 6.95% increase over the last five trading days, 24.93% over the last 20 days, and 18.37% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Business Overview - Ximai Food, established on August 1, 2001, and listed on June 19, 2019, specializes in the research, production, and sales of oat-based foods [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 48.38% from composite oat flakes, 36.62% from pure oat flakes, 7.52% from cold oat products, and 4.04% from other sources [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ximai Food reported a revenue of 1.696 billion CNY, reflecting an 18.34% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million CNY, up 21.90% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 470 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 222 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of November 10, 2025, the number of shareholders in Ximai Food decreased by 11.78% to 11,300, while the average number of tradable shares per person increased by 13.35% to 19,736 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Bodao Huitai Preferred Mixed A, which increased its stake by 60.26% to 4.204 million shares, and Huaxia Anyang 6-month holding period Mixed A, which is a new shareholder with 2.676 million shares [3].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that the company, Ximai Food (002956.SZ), has achieved high growth in both revenue and profit, positioning itself as a leader in the oat market [5][7]. - In Q3, the company reported a revenue of 547 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.92%, and a net profit of 50.59 million yuan, up 21.00% year-on-year [7]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters reached approximately 205 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.40%, indicating improved operational quality [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters improved by 1.03 percentage points to 43.64%, driven by a decrease in oat raw material procurement costs [7]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.23 percentage points and 0.63 percentage points, respectively, indicating effective cost control measures [7]. - The report projects the company’s revenue for 2025-2027 to be 2.448 billion, 3.111 billion, and 3.735 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.1%, 27.1%, and 20.1% respectively [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on new product development and expanding into health-oriented markets, which are expected to drive future growth [7]. - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy-A" based on the company's strong revenue and profit growth potential [7]. - The company continues to leverage online channels like Douyin and expand its presence in offline retail, contributing to its growth strategy [7].

Core Insights - The company demonstrated a combination of "high-quality growth + cost control optimization" in Q3, with both revenue and profit increasing, and improvements in gross and net profit margins [1] - The new product lines and the second growth curve in health and wellness have shown potential, indicating sustainable growth in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved operating revenue of 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 50.59 million yuan, up 21.00%; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 49.19 million yuan, a significant increase of 86.30% [2] - For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.34%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 132.08 million yuan, up 21.90% [2] - The profit exceeded market expectations, driven by strong growth in composite oatmeal products, stable sales of pure oatmeal products, and steady growth in cold oatmeal products [2] Cost Management and Profitability - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters improved by 1.03 percentage points to 43.64%, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs for oats [2] - The sales and management expense ratios decreased by 0.23 percentage points and 0.63 percentage points to 28.98% and 4.96%, respectively, indicating effective cost control measures [2] Future Growth Potential - With further cost benefits from oats and ongoing expense optimization, the company's profit margins are expected to improve [3] - The company reported a net operating cash flow of approximately 205 million yuan for Q1-Q3, a year-on-year increase of 57.40%, indicating improved operational quality [3] - New product launches and diversified channels are seen as future growth catalysts, with a focus on health-oriented products and expansion in online and offline sales channels [3] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to have significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years, with expected revenues of 2.448 billion, 3.111 billion, and 3.735 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 29.1%, 27.1%, and 20.1% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 185 million, 249 million, and 310 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 38.8%, 35.0%, and 24.4% respectively [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 26.9, 19.9, and 16.0 times for the years 2025-2027, leading to an upgraded investment rating of "Buy-A" [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy-A" [6] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated "high-quality growth + cost control optimization" in Q3, with both revenue and profit increasing, alongside improvements in gross and net profit margins. The potential for continued revenue and profit growth is evident from new products and the health-focused second growth curve [2][4] - In Q3, the company achieved operating revenue of 547 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50.59 million yuan, up 21.00% year-on-year. The first three quarters saw cumulative revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.34%, and a net profit of 132.08 million yuan, up 21.90% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is benefiting from a reduction in raw material costs, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.03 percentage points to 43.64% in the first three quarters. Additionally, the sales and management expense ratios have decreased, indicating effective cost control measures [4][5] Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 2.448 billion, 3.111 billion, and 3.735 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 29.1%, 27.1%, and 20.1% [6][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 185 million, 250 million, and 310 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of 38.8%, 35.0%, and 24.4% [6][11] - The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.83, 1.12, and 1.39 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on maintaining stable cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of approximately 205 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 57.40%. This indicates improved operational quality and a safety cushion [5] - The introduction of new products, particularly in the health food segment, and the expansion into online channels like Douyin, along with offline retail strategies, are expected to drive future growth [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Foods, as a leading domestic oat brand, benefits from the trend of health-oriented consumption, with a continuous upward shift in growth since its listing [1] - Compared to overseas markets, there is significant room for improvement in the penetration rate of oats in China, with a solid base in pure oats and rapid growth in composite oat products through innovation [1] - The company is actively expanding into new channels such as O2O, community group buying, and emerging platforms like Douyin, demonstrating superior operational efficiency compared to peers [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132 million yuan, up 21.90% [2] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 547 million yuan, growing 18.92% year-on-year, with a net profit of 51 million yuan, an increase of 21.00% [2] Product Growth and Innovation - The revenue from pure oats in Q3 grew by 15%, driven by the contribution of organic oats, while composite oats maintained over 20% growth [3] - The company continues to innovate by introducing health-oriented ingredients into composite oat products, benefiting from the health consumption trend [3] - New products such as high-protein oat porridge and organic high-protein oat flakes were launched in October, expected to accelerate revenue growth in 2026 [3] Cost and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company's gross margin improved by 0.93 percentage points to 43.75%, mainly due to lower raw material costs and an upgraded product mix [4] - The selling expense ratio decreased by 1.85 percentage points to 27.11%, reflecting effective cost control during the off-season [4] - The net profit margin increased by 0.14 percentage points to 9.31%, with a significant rise in the non-recurring net profit margin by 3.25 percentage points to 8.99% [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to experience a rapid release of performance in 2026, with projected revenues of 2.33 billion, 2.78 billion, and 3.27 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 22.7%, 19.7%, and 17.4% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 178 million, 236 million, and 300 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 33.4%, 32.9%, and 27.0% [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 39.31% and a recent surge in trading activity, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [2]. Company Overview - Ximai Food, established on August 1, 2001, and listed on June 19, 2019, is located in the High-tech Development Zone of Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of oat-based food products [2]. - The main revenue composition includes: composite oat flakes (48.38%), pure oat flakes (36.62%), cold oat products (7.52%), and other products (4.04%) [2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Ximai Food achieved a revenue of 1.696 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 132 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 21.90% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Ximai Food has distributed a total of 470 million yuan in dividends, with 222 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders for Ximai Food was 12,800, a decrease of 10.56% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 11.81% to 17,412 shares [2]. - Notable institutional holdings include Baodao Huitai Preferred Mixed A (016840) as the fifth largest circulating shareholder with 4.204 million shares, an increase of 602,600 shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food's stock price increased by 5.03% to 22.77 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 5.083 billion CNY as of November 5 [1] Company Overview - Guilin Ximai Food Co., Ltd. is located in the High-tech Development Zone of Guilin, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, established on August 1, 2001, and listed on June 19, 2019 [1] - The company's main business involves the research, production, and sales of oat-based foods, with revenue composition as follows: compound oat flakes 48.38%, pure oat flakes 36.62%, cold oat flakes 7.52%, others 4.04%, and additional supplements 3.44% [1] Shareholder Information - According to data, Huaxia Fund's Huaxia Anyang 6-Month Holding Period Mixed A Fund (010969) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Ximai Food in the third quarter, holding 2.6758 million shares, accounting for 1.2% of circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating profit for the fund today is approximately 2.9166 million CNY [2] Fund Performance - The Huaxia Anyang 6-Month Holding Period Mixed A Fund was established on March 30, 2021, with a latest scale of 1.231 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 21.87% and a one-year return of 24.54% [2] - The fund manager, Lin Qingze, has a cumulative tenure of 6 years and 85 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 2.863 billion CNY [3] Fund Holdings - The Huaxia Anyang 6-Month Holding Period Mixed A Fund increased its holdings in Ximai Food by 257,700 shares in the third quarter, making it the ninth largest holding in the fund, accounting for 3.82% of the fund's net value [4]