2025 年 08 月 26 日 ▌成本红利释放，广宣费投力度加大 公司 2025Q2 毛利率同增 3pct 至 43.50%，主要系产品结构优 化、澳麦原粮成本下降所致，公司基本锁定全年原料价格， 预 计 后 续 毛 利 率 持 续 兑 现 ， 销 售 费 用 率 同 增 3pct 至 30.72%，主要系广宣力度加大所致，后续费用谨慎投放，全 年费用率预计保持稳定，管理费用率同减 1pct 至 5.74%，净 利率同增 0.3pct 至 5.54%，盈利能力稳步优化。 ▌复合燕麦延续高增，德赛康谷盈利改善 2025H1 纯燕麦片/复合燕麦片营收分别为 4.21/5.56 亿元， 分别同增 13%/28%，纯燕凭借品牌领先优势，增速优于行业 整体，复合燕麦通过推进品类创新维持增长动能，红枣燕 麦、五红五黑等单品销量表现突出，同时高毛利的复合燕麦 营收高增也进一步优化产品端盈利能力。2025H1 冷食燕麦片 营收 0.86 亿元（同增 27%），主要系德赛康谷贡献，2025Q2 德赛业务盈利边际改善，预计下半年销售规模逐季向上。 ▌新零售渠道延续增势，电商渠道保持领先优势 线下渠道来看，KA 等商超渠道整体仍 ...

Summary of Ximai Foods Conference Call Industry Overview - The new consumer goods category is emerging, with significant growth in online platforms like Douyin and offline membership supermarkets and snack stores. This trend is supported by declining raw material costs, which enhance profit margins for traditional food and beverage companies [2][3][4]. - The oatmeal industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) close to 10%, surpassing a market size of 100 billion [2][6]. Company Insights: Ximai Foods - Ximai Foods benefits from the rising demand for health and wellness products, product structure upgrades, and channel innovations. The decline in oatmeal raw material costs is expected to boost revenue and profit growth [2][4]. - The company has a market share of approximately 25%, competing closely with Quaker, which holds about 22%, resulting in a combined market share of 50% [2][8]. Product Structure and Innovations - Ximai Foods has shifted its product structure from pure oatmeal to composite oatmeal, which is the fastest-growing segment, expected to account for about 45% of revenue in 2024 [2][11]. - New product launches include yogurt with calcium, protein powder, oral liquids, and instant pepper bird's nest porridge, targeting health-conscious consumers, particularly the elderly [2][12]. Channel Development - The company has transitioned from a traditional supermarket focus to a balanced online and offline channel strategy, achieving significant sales on platforms like JD and Tmall, with Douyin accounting for about 40% of online revenue [4][13]. - In 2024, revenue from snack stores is projected to be over 80 million yuan, with plans to increase store coverage and SKU variety in the coming years [14]. Competitive Advantages - Ximai Foods has a strong ability to adapt to changing consumer tastes and has successfully developed new product categories. The company plans to increase its market share from 20% to over 30% by 2027 [9][20]. - The company maintains a competitive edge through effective product innovation and channel expansion, which has allowed it to differentiate itself from competitors like Quaker [9][10]. Financial Performance and Projections - The decline in raw material costs, particularly from Australian oats, has positively impacted gross margins, which are expected to improve by 2-3 percentage points due to a 10% decrease in raw material costs in Q2 [4][18]. - Ximai Foods aims for a revenue growth rate of no less than 15% over the next three years, targeting revenues of approximately 2.3 billion yuan in 2025 and over 3 billion yuan in net profit by 2027 [20]. Conclusion - Ximai Foods is positioned as a stable growth company within the new consumer sector, leveraging structural growth opportunities in the industry and enhancing its product and channel strategies to achieve steady revenue growth while improving profitability through cost management and efficiency [20].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and profitability in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by its core oat business and expansion into new retail channels [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, up 15.4% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 660 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, with a net profit of 60 million yuan, increasing by 21.2% [1]. Product Performance - The company's main oat products, including pure oat flakes, compound oat flakes, and cold oat products, generated revenues of 710 million, 850 million, 150 million, 140 million, and 50 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9.6%, 28.8%, 24.1%, 23.9%, and 25.3% [2]. - The "Oat+" series and the classic milk oat series each surpassed 200 million yuan in sales, with the "Oat+" series growing over 20% and the milk oat series over 30% year-on-year [2]. Channel Development - The company emphasized the development of direct sales channels, achieving revenue of 830 million yuan from direct sales, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% [2]. - Online sales, particularly through traditional e-commerce and social e-commerce platforms like Douyin, saw significant growth, with Douyin's GMV reaching 470 million yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.3%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and low capacity utilization of new production facilities [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 8.3% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase [3]. Strategic Expansion - The company is expanding its product range beyond oats, developing new products such as instant porridge, lotus root powder, sesame paste, and probiotic protein powder, while also pursuing strategic partnerships and acquisitions [3][4]. - The company is actively embracing new retail channels, including snack wholesale, Douyin e-commerce, and membership stores, leading to rapid growth [4]. Market Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 180 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 1.01, and 1.24 yuan [4]. - As a leading player in the oat industry, the company is expected to benefit from market expansion and increased concentration, with potential for profit improvement in the future [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.13 yuan over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 133 million yuan, up 15.36% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the rapid increase in sales of composite and cold oat products, with online sales channels growing over 17% and offline sales increasing by 14% [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages as the price of Australian oats declines, enhancing profit margins [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.33%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising oat prices and lower margins in online and new retail channels [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.02%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 8.28%, reflecting a positive trend [2]. - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.88, 1.21, and 1.52 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21x, 15x, and 12x [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 18.14% for 2025, with net profit expected to increase by 47.82% [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.24 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 197 million yuan [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established itself as a leader in the oat industry, with strong performance in both traditional and new retail channels [1][3]. - The successful launch of new products, such as oatmeal porridge in Sam's Club, indicates a robust sales strategy and market penetration [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth, with a revenue increase of 20.2% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.896 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 15.4%, amounting to 133.19 million yuan [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 655.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, which is a 21.2% increase year-on-year [7] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with significant growth in various product categories and channels, indicating a trend of industry structural upgrade [7] - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages in 2025, with a projected net profit of 180.63 million yuan, representing a 35.62% year-on-year increase [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,896 million yuan in 2024, 2,214 million yuan in 2025, 2,546 million yuan in 2026, and 2,884 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.16%, 16.78%, 15.00%, and 13.25% [1][8] - The projected net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is 180.63 million yuan, 229.20 million yuan, and 276.09 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.62%, 26.89%, and 20.46% respectively [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.81 yuan in 2025, 1.03 yuan in 2026, and 1.24 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.98, 18.11, and 15.03 [1][8]

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