2025 年 09 月 26 日 西麦食品(002956.SZ) 深耕燕麦核心赛道，健康消费红利下迎 增长新周期 西麦食品：燕麦行业标杆品牌 西麦食品公司于 1994 年创立，专注于以燕麦为代表的健康谷物食品 的研发、生产、销售，并于 2019 年成功登陆深交所，成为"燕麦第 一股"。公司治理上，西麦食品为家族企业，合计持股超 50%股权，股 权结构清晰，管理层结构稳定；股权激励计划绑定核心团队，为公司 继续扩张留足后劲。 燕麦行业渗透率较低，提升空间显著 本报告版权属于国投证券股份有限公司，各项声明请参见报告尾页。 1 中国燕麦行业规模保持稳健增长，2024 年行业规模达 101.34 亿元， 其中冲泡燕麦占比 68.6%，即食燕麦占 31.4%，但与全球市场相比人 均消费仍处于洼地，提升空间显著。需求端，我国人口规模庞大，银 发经济+健康需求推动行业进一步发展，政策出台保驾护航；供给端， 2024 年我国燕麦行业 CR3、CR10 分别达 51.9%、76.1%，行业集中度 呈持续提升态势，其中西麦受益于产品本土化与渠道下沉策略，以 26%的市占率稳居国产龙头地位；桂格（18.2%）强调"科学营养"概 念 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating to the company for the first time [1][4]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in its core product, composite oats, which accounted for 48.4% of total revenue in the first half of the year, generating 556 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [3]. - The overall revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 1.149 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 81 million yuan, up 22.5% [2][3]. - The company is expanding its offline channel partnerships and benefiting from new retail contributions, with southern region revenue growing by 20.1% and northern region by 13.3% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin improved to 43.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower procurement costs for Australian oats and a higher proportion of high-margin composite oats [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 was 7.1%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.29 billion yuan, 2.74 billion yuan, and 3.31 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.8%, 19.7%, and 20.7% [4][7]. - Expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.78 yuan, 1.00 yuan, and 1.25 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.3, 21.4, and 17.2 [4][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on the health sector and expanding its product offerings through various channel partnerships, which is expected to drive future growth [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Ximai Food's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline in price and significant net outflow of funds [1][2] - As of September 18, Ximai Food's stock price was 21.62 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 4.827 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Ximai Food's stock has increased by 33.03%, but it has seen a decline of 4.76% in the last five trading days [2] Group 2 - Ximai Food's main business involves the research, production, and sales of oat-based foods, with revenue composition as follows: compound oat flakes 48.38%, pure oat flakes 36.62%, cold oat products 7.52%, and others 4.04% [2] - The company has a total of 12,500 shareholders as of September 10, with an average of 17,903 circulating shares per shareholder [2] - For the first half of 2025, Ximai Food reported revenue of 1.149 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 18.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 81.487 million CNY, up 22.46% year-on-year [2][3] Group 3 - Ximai Food has distributed a total of 470 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 222 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Baodao Huitai Preferred Mixed A, which holds 3.6014 million shares, an increase of 561,900 shares from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to become a leader in the oatmeal and health food sector, with a strong outlook for future growth [2][13]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.149 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 18.07%, with a gross margin improvement of 1.07 percentage points to 43.59% [13]. - The report highlights the company's focus on product innovation and expansion into new health food categories, which is expected to drive long-term growth [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 1,578 million yuan - 2024: 1,896 million yuan (growth of 20.2%) - 2025: 2,314 million yuan (growth of 22.1%) - 2026: 2,748 million yuan (growth of 18.7%) - 2027: 3,196 million yuan (growth of 16.3%) [5][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow from 115 million yuan in 2023 to 279 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 27.0% [5][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.52 yuan in 2023 to 1.25 yuan in 2027 [5][14]. Product and Regional Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported the following product performance: - Pure oatmeal: 13.24% growth - Compound oatmeal: 27.56% growth - Cold oatmeal: 27.23% growth [13]. - Regional performance showed that the southern region's revenue grew by 20.14%, while the northern region's revenue grew by 13.34% [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Ximai Food (002956.SZ) [10] Core Views - The company continues to experience growth in its main business, with cost benefits being realized as expected [1] - The gross profit margin increased by 3 percentage points to 43.50% in Q2 2025, attributed to product structure optimization and lower raw material costs [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence through increased advertising spending while maintaining stable overall expense ratios [2] - The revenue from pure and composite oatmeal products grew by 13% and 28% respectively in H1 2025, indicating strong brand performance and innovation in product categories [3] - The new retail channels are showing continued growth, with e-commerce channels maintaining a leading position [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, total revenue reached 1.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 81 million yuan, up 22% [1] - Q2 2025 revenue was 493 million yuan, reflecting a 21% increase, while net profit for the same period was 27 million yuan, up 25% [1] Cost and Profitability - The company has locked in raw material prices for the year, which is expected to support continued gross margin realization [2] - Selling expense ratio increased by 3 percentage points to 30.72% due to heightened advertising efforts, while management expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 5.74% [2] Product Performance - Revenue from pure oatmeal and composite oatmeal reached 421 million yuan and 556 million yuan respectively in H1 2025, with significant growth driven by innovative product offerings [3] - The cold food oatmeal segment generated 86 million yuan in revenue, a 27% increase, primarily due to contributions from the Desai Kanggu brand [3] Market Channels - Offline channels face traffic pressure, but the company's products maintain resilience due to brand strength [4] - E-commerce channels are expected to take on more product testing roles, enhancing the success rate of new product launches [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to continue its focus on the oatmeal category, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to be 0.78 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.24 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.149 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.07% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 81 million yuan, up 22.46% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel expansion, particularly in the health sector, with a new health technology company established in August [3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the gross margin was 43.59%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points year-on-year, while the second quarter gross margin was 43.50%, up 2.64 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 5.46%, a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product and Regional Performance - In the first half of 2025, revenue from compound oatmeal grew by 27.6%, while pure oatmeal revenue increased by 13.2% [1] - The southern region generated 683 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 20.14%, while the northern region saw a revenue increase of 13.34% [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its product structure by focusing on high-performing products such as organic and milk oatmeal, with compound oatmeal growing faster than pure oatmeal [3] - The company is expanding its sales channels, including offline networks and emerging channels like community group buying [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.290 billion, 2.741 billion, and 3.309 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.78%, 19.69%, and 20.73% [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are projected at 170 million, 225 million, and 280 million yuan, with growth rates of 27.77%, 32.25%, and 24.25% respectively [3]

Summary of Ximai Foods Conference Call Industry Overview - The new consumer goods category is emerging, with significant growth in online platforms like Douyin and offline membership supermarkets and snack stores. This trend is supported by declining raw material costs, which enhance profit margins for traditional food and beverage companies [2][3][4]. - The oatmeal industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) close to 10%, surpassing a market size of 100 billion [2][6]. Company Insights: Ximai Foods - Ximai Foods benefits from the rising demand for health and wellness products, product structure upgrades, and channel innovations. The decline in oatmeal raw material costs is expected to boost revenue and profit growth [2][4]. - The company has a market share of approximately 25%, competing closely with Quaker, which holds about 22%, resulting in a combined market share of 50% [2][8]. Product Structure and Innovations - Ximai Foods has shifted its product structure from pure oatmeal to composite oatmeal, which is the fastest-growing segment, expected to account for about 45% of revenue in 2024 [2][11]. - New product launches include yogurt with calcium, protein powder, oral liquids, and instant pepper bird's nest porridge, targeting health-conscious consumers, particularly the elderly [2][12]. Channel Development - The company has transitioned from a traditional supermarket focus to a balanced online and offline channel strategy, achieving significant sales on platforms like JD and Tmall, with Douyin accounting for about 40% of online revenue [4][13]. - In 2024, revenue from snack stores is projected to be over 80 million yuan, with plans to increase store coverage and SKU variety in the coming years [14]. Competitive Advantages - Ximai Foods has a strong ability to adapt to changing consumer tastes and has successfully developed new product categories. The company plans to increase its market share from 20% to over 30% by 2027 [9][20]. - The company maintains a competitive edge through effective product innovation and channel expansion, which has allowed it to differentiate itself from competitors like Quaker [9][10]. Financial Performance and Projections - The decline in raw material costs, particularly from Australian oats, has positively impacted gross margins, which are expected to improve by 2-3 percentage points due to a 10% decrease in raw material costs in Q2 [4][18]. - Ximai Foods aims for a revenue growth rate of no less than 15% over the next three years, targeting revenues of approximately 2.3 billion yuan in 2025 and over 3 billion yuan in net profit by 2027 [20]. Conclusion - Ximai Foods is positioned as a stable growth company within the new consumer sector, leveraging structural growth opportunities in the industry and enhancing its product and channel strategies to achieve steady revenue growth while improving profitability through cost management and efficiency [20].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth and profitability in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by its core oat business and expansion into new retail channels [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million yuan, up 15.4% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 660 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, with a net profit of 60 million yuan, increasing by 21.2% [1]. Product Performance - The company's main oat products, including pure oat flakes, compound oat flakes, and cold oat products, generated revenues of 710 million, 850 million, 150 million, 140 million, and 50 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9.6%, 28.8%, 24.1%, 23.9%, and 25.3% [2]. - The "Oat+" series and the classic milk oat series each surpassed 200 million yuan in sales, with the "Oat+" series growing over 20% and the milk oat series over 30% year-on-year [2]. Channel Development - The company emphasized the development of direct sales channels, achieving revenue of 830 million yuan from direct sales, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% [2]. - Online sales, particularly through traditional e-commerce and social e-commerce platforms like Douyin, saw significant growth, with Douyin's GMV reaching 470 million yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 41.3%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs and low capacity utilization of new production facilities [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, but improved to 8.3% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase [3]. Strategic Expansion - The company is expanding its product range beyond oats, developing new products such as instant porridge, lotus root powder, sesame paste, and probiotic protein powder, while also pursuing strategic partnerships and acquisitions [3][4]. - The company is actively embracing new retail channels, including snack wholesale, Douyin e-commerce, and membership stores, leading to rapid growth [4]. Market Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 180 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.81, 1.01, and 1.24 yuan [4]. - As a leading player in the oat industry, the company is expected to benefit from market expansion and increased concentration, with potential for profit improvement in the future [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.13 yuan over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 133 million yuan, up 15.36% year-on-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the rapid increase in sales of composite and cold oat products, with online sales channels growing over 17% and offline sales increasing by 14% [1][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages as the price of Australian oats declines, enhancing profit margins [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 41.33%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising oat prices and lower margins in online and new retail channels [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.02%, down 0.30 percentage points year-on-year. However, in Q1 2025, the net profit margin improved to 8.28%, reflecting a positive trend [2]. - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.88, 1.21, and 1.52 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21x, 15x, and 12x [3]. Revenue and Profit Growth Projections - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 18.14% for 2025, with net profit expected to increase by 47.82% [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 2.24 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 197 million yuan [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established itself as a leader in the oat industry, with strong performance in both traditional and new retail channels [1][3]. - The successful launch of new products, such as oatmeal porridge in Sam's Club, indicates a robust sales strategy and market penetration [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth, with a revenue increase of 20.2% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.896 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 15.4%, amounting to 133.19 million yuan [7] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 655.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and a net profit of 55 million yuan, which is a 21.2% increase year-on-year [7] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with significant growth in various product categories and channels, indicating a trend of industry structural upgrade [7] - The company is expected to benefit from cost advantages in 2025, with a projected net profit of 180.63 million yuan, representing a 35.62% year-on-year increase [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,896 million yuan in 2024, 2,214 million yuan in 2025, 2,546 million yuan in 2026, and 2,884 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.16%, 16.78%, 15.00%, and 13.25% [1][8] - The projected net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is 180.63 million yuan, 229.20 million yuan, and 276.09 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.62%, 26.89%, and 20.46% respectively [1][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.81 yuan in 2025, 1.03 yuan in 2026, and 1.24 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22.98, 18.11, and 15.03 [1][8]