1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the market showed a significant upward trend or rebound after a series of important macro - events. The overall market sentiment turned bullish, but there was a risk of short - term market sentiment shock due to the possible "flame - out" of previous sentiment "leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate [15][96]. - For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. However, these factors have mostly been priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by the direction of the black market and overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push issues on the manganese silicon side and supply contraction problems on the ferrosilicon side [15][96]. - In the context of the current bullish commodity sentiment, low port manganese ore inventory, and concentrated ownership of high - grade manganese ore, it is necessary to pay close attention to possible sudden events in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [14][20]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][25]. - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][30]. - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [14][44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year [14][59][62]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period [14][70]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 0.00%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [25]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of South African ore was 35 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Australian ore was 41.7 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 1.7 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Gabonese ore was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month. The market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 110 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [27][30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In November 2025, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 439.58 tons, down 7.22 tons month - on - month [36]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in December 2025 was 14,700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56][59][62]. 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's perspective was 39.35 tons, up 0.75 tons month - on - month [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December 2025, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level in historical statistics [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In December 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile rebound, rising 300 yuan/ton or 5.33% month - on - month. At the daily - line level, it continued the volatile rebound trend after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024 and was in a short - term upward cycle with no obvious position increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [95][101]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][106]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][112]. - Supply: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [95][117]. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [95][123][126]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.33 tons, up 0.03 tons month - on - month, remaining at a relatively neutral level in the same period [95][140]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [106]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of semi - coke small materials was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main - production - area electricity price was unchanged month - on - month. The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [109][112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [117]. - **Demand**: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant price drop in manganese silicon as producers are selling 120,000 tons of Gabonese ore, leading to a collective inaction from buyers who express a lack of interest in purchasing [1] Group 2 - The article indicates that the manganese silicon market is experiencing downward pressure due to oversupply from producers [1] - Buyers are reportedly adopting a "wait and see" approach, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The situation reflects broader trends in commodity markets where price fluctuations are influenced by supply-demand imbalances [1]