碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 二、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 碳酸锂期货上涨，上周市场担心的枧下窝矿复产并未落地，早盘 01 合约在跌破 9 万后迅速拉回，在现货价持续坚挺背景下，碳酸锂向下力量有限。日内现货跌 500 至 92750，贸易市场贴水幅度持平，澳矿涨 15 至 1172.5，锂云母涨 20 至 2535， 三元涨 0-50，铁锂跌 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: Carbonate lithium futures prices rose significantly, with total positions increasing by 77,114 lots. After the evaluation report of the Jianxiawo mining area was released, the resumption time of the mine was postponed, and strong demand led to a short - term influx of funds. However, the current futures market sentiment is more exuberant than the spot market, and there is a high risk of short - term chasing [11]. - Spot Market: The price of electric carbon increased by 350 to 80,750. The spot price was significantly at a discount to the futures price. The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte slowed down. The price of Australian ore increased by 55 to 995, lithium mica ore increased by 60, ternary materials increased by 100 - 1,500, and lithium iron phosphate increased by 80 - 90. The industrial chain is still in the price - rising channel [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Copper in Data Centers: As the power density of AI servers exceeds 100kW/cabinet, high - speed copper cables are gradually replacing some optical modules as the mainstream choice for internal interconnection in data centers. In 2026, the global copper demand in data centers is expected to reach 710,000 tons, with AI - related scenarios contributing over 40% of the increase [12]. - Fortune Minerals: Fortune Minerals received a binding loan offer of CAD 3.8 million (about USD 2.7 million) from Prosper NWT. The loan will help the company acquire a refinery and existing facilities in Lamont County, Alberta. The company plans to build a hydrometallurgical plant there to process concentrates from the NICO cobalt - gold - bismuth - copper mine. The NICO project is in the late - stage development phase, and the mine's core deposit has a reserve of 33.1 million tons [12]. - NICO Project Funding: In March, the NICO project received additional funding support from the Canadian and US governments. The Canadian domestic funding reached CAD 7.5 million (about USD 5.5 million), covering 75% of the CAD 10 million additional engineering and testing work. The US Department of Defense awarded the company USD 6.38 million to expand cobalt production capacity [13]

Report Overview - Report Type: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The carbonate lithium futures continued to rise, with total positions increasing by 36,888 to 912,869 hands. Although the afternoon rally narrowed due to increased market selling pressure after the China-US summit in Busan, the upward trend is expected to continue. The current strong demand in the carbonate lithium market drives inventory reduction, and price transmission is smooth, with the price increase being acceptable to the industry. Moreover, the weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons, and it is expected to decline further in November and December. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,008 tons to 127,358 tons, indicating an accelerating de-stocking process [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: Carbonate lithium futures rose, with total positions increasing by 36,888 to 912,869 hands. The afternoon rally narrowed due to market selling pressure after the China-US summit in Busan [9]. - **Spot Market**: The carbonate lithium spot price increased by 850 to 80,000, Australian ore rose by 30 to 985, lithium mica rose by 50 to 2,180, ternary materials rose by 100 - 300, lithium iron phosphate rose by 200 - 255, and electrolytes rose by 500 - 850, showing a continuous price increase in the industrial chain [9]. - **Production and Inventory**: Weekly carbonate lithium production decreased by 228 tons to 21,080 tons, mainly due to a 270 - ton decrease in the production of carbonate lithium from spodumene. It is expected that production will decline in November and December. Weekly inventory decreased by 3,008 tons to 127,358 tons, with an accelerating de - stocking speed [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **New宙邦**: On October 29, at the performance briefing, New宙邦 stated that since the third quarter of 2025, the electrolyte industry has gradually rebounded from the historical low in the first half of the year. The price transmission of hexafluorophosphate to electrolytes is gradually taking effect. As some customers still have annual or semi - annual long - term contracts, the fourth quarter is a price transition period, but new contracts will fully refer to the latest hexafluorophosphate price, and the transmission efficiency will further improve [13]. - **Nandu Power Supply (300068)**: On October 29, during an institutional survey, Nandu Power Supply said that with the strategic layout of countries for large - scale grid connection of renewable energy and improved energy security, the energy storage market is growing rapidly. The company currently has about 8.9 billion yuan in unshipped orders, including about 5.5 billion yuan in large - scale energy storage orders (4 billion yuan domestic and 1.5 billion yuan overseas), about 1.67 billion yuan in data center lithium - battery orders (all overseas), about 380 million yuan in unshipped orders for civilian lithium - battery products, about 470 million yuan in communication lithium - battery orders (with a small overseas proportion), and about 790 million yuan in lead - acid battery orders (mostly domestic). The company's overseas large - scale energy storage orders mainly come from countries and regions such as Australia, Europe, and the UK [13][14].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell. The market continued to trade on the anti-involution signal released by the article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a National Unified Market" in Qiushi, but the upward momentum was limited without specific policies. The total open interest decreased while the total trading volume increased slightly, indicating an increasing willingness of funds to leave the market [11]. - Spot Price: The spot price of electric carbon increased by 400 to 72,850. The premium of the futures price over the spot price widened. As the Double Festival approaches, downstream buyers have a demand for stocking up at low prices, which supports the spot price of carbonate lithium [11]. - Raw Material Price: The price of Australian ore increased by 10 to $820 per ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 40 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,280 yuan per ton, while the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica widened to 7,539 yuan per ton [11]. - Supply and Demand: Although salt plants are currently operating at a loss, it does not affect their production enthusiasm. The weekly production of carbonate lithium last week was close to the historical high, and the supply pressure remains. The demand is in the peak season. The short-term focus is on the mineral type change of the mines in production in Yichun by the end of the month and the resumption progress of the Jianxiaowo Mine. Before the variables at the mine end are settled, the market sentiment is still difficult to make a clear directional choice [11]. Group 3: Industry News - Production Capacity Upgrade: On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of carbonate lithium in Lanke Lithium Industry has been increased to 40,000 tons after technological upgrading. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high-quality industrial development [12]. - Battery Technology: Fuan Technology stated on the interaction platform that its third-generation semi-solid-state battery introduces solid electrolytes into the positive and negative electrodes and uses in-situ solidification technology to further reduce the electrolyte content in the battery cells. It is planned to be mass-produced in 2026. The energy density of the current soft-pack battery cells has reached 400Wh/kg. The reduction of electrolyte and the introduction of solid oxide electrolytes are beneficial to improving the safety of the battery cells. The compatibility of solid electrolytes with high-energy-density active materials helps to ultimately achieve a high-safety all-solid-state battery with an energy density of over 500Wh/kg [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the faster - than - expected news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, and the price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although there is uncertainty about the resumption of production, market sentiment improved slightly. The spot price center shifted downwards, and downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points. In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Affected by the news of the resumption of production at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mine, the morning trading of lithium carbonate futures opened sharply lower, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 68,600. The price almost recovered the gains from the supply - side production cut hype in August. Although an insider said there was uncertainty about the resumption, the market sentiment improved limitedly, and the main contract barely stood above 70,000 at the end of the session. The spot price center moved down, with electric carbon dropping 1,150 to 73,450. Downstream material factories were actively pricing at low points due to rigid procurement demand during the peak season [9]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Australian ore dropped 45 to 805 US dollars per ton, and lithium mica ore dropped 50 to 1,815 yuan per ton. The profit of salt factories improved, with the production loss of salt factories purchasing lithium mica narrowing to 7,321 yuan per ton and that of salt factories purchasing lithium spodumene narrowing to 1,507 yuan per ton [9]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the context of industry overcapacity, the willingness of holders to hold up prices is weak. The impact of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine on the spot market is difficult to be fully absorbed by demand. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the implementation of the resumption of production at Jianxiawo Mine, and it is recommended to wait for the risk to land before taking unilateral actions [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Galan Lithium's Project Progress**: Australian Galan Lithium announced that the first - phase construction of its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) lithium salt project in Argentina has made significant progress. The design of Pool 4 has been completed, which will support an operation of 4,000 tons per year of lithium carbonate equivalent. The construction of a nanofiltration plant in Sydney is in progress. The project has a mid - term goal of achieving an annual output of 21,000 tons of LCE in 2026, 40,000 tons in 2028, and potentially increasing to 60,000 tons in 2030 [12]. - **Ningde Times' Mine Resumption**: On September 10, it was learned that Ningde Times' subsidiary Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. held a "Jianxiawo Lithium Mine Resumption Work Meeting" on September 9 to discuss the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Lithium Mine. The goal is to complete the resumption of production by November this year, but it is uncertain whether this goal can be achieved, and it may be adjusted according to the actual progress. Investors are advised to view market news rationally [12][13].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on lithium carbonate futures dated August 22, 2025, written by researchers Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin from the Nonferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [2][3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Lithium carbonate futures stopped falling, and the market selling sentiment eased. The logic of production cuts at the lithium resource end still exists, and the futures once turned positive. The spot price of electric carbon dropped by 500 to 85,200, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing resistance to decline [9] - Australian ore remained flat at 960, lithium mica ore dropped by 15 to 2,110, the price of 5-series power ternary materials remained flat, and lithium iron phosphate dropped by 125. The short - term price decline led to price cuts in both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain [9] - The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 3,613, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica widened to 2,995. This week's weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons compared with last week, and social inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Production is still at a relatively high level, and it is judged that the inflection point of social inventory has appeared [9] - With the spot at a premium and the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ore - end production cuts remaining high before the end of September, it is expected that the downward space for lithium carbonate prices is limited [9] Group 3: Industry News - The Ningxia - Hunan ±800 kV UHV DC transmission project was put into operation on August 20. It is China's first approved UHV transmission channel mainly for transmitting new energy from large - scale wind and photovoltaic bases in the "Sahara - Gobi - Desert" area. The project has a supporting power generation capacity of 17.64 million kilowatts, including 13 million kilowatts of new energy (4 million kilowatts of wind power and 9 million kilowatts of photovoltaic power) [12] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, transitioning from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase. The project has successfully produced salable spodumene concentrate with a lithium oxide grade of over 5% (up to 6.2%) and achieved full - process automated continuous production [12][13]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend, with lithium carbonate futures main contract closing at 87,540.0 yuan/ton, down 1.79% [1] - In the spot market, prices for various lithium-related materials increased, including a rise of 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan for electric carbon and 500 yuan for ternary materials [1] - Weekly lithium production increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment improved due to the upcoming expiration of a safety production license for a large mica mine in Jiangxi, leading to cautious upward movement in lithium prices [2] - The domestic demand for lithium is showing signs of recovery as downstream purchasing attitudes shift in response to the strong trend of lithium carbonate [1][2] - Short-term lithium prices may experience upward movement driven by market sentiment, but the extent of the increase is expected to be limited due to regulatory factors and local oversight [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Carbonate lithium futures rose significantly, with the main contract breaking through 90,000 yuan during the session. The spot price of electric carbon increased by 1,900 yuan to 84,600 yuan, Australian ore rose by 45 to 1,035, lithium mica ore rose by 85 to 2,185, 5-series power-type ternary materials rose by 500, and lithium iron phosphate rose by 515. The production profit of salt plants purchasing lithium spodumene narrowed to 1,069, and the production loss of salt plants purchasing lithium mica expanded to 4,968. The current futures price has a premium of over 4,000 yuan over the spot price [12]. - **Main Drivers**: The rise was mainly due to the news that the mining license of Qinghai Xitai Jinaier Salt Lake of CITIC Guoan expired, and short - term disturbances in the resource side were the main cause of lithium price fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: The high supply is expected to remain unchanged in the short term, but the market's short - term trading sentiment is still concentrated on the production cuts and suspensions in the lithium resource sector. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium is likely to rise and difficult to fall [12]. Group 3: Industry News - **Ganfeng Lithium**: On August 18, Ganfeng Lithium stated on the interactive platform that the future reversal of lithium prices depends on the intensity of supply - side clearance and the pace of demand growth. The company is optimistic about long - term lithium demand, will adjust production capacity flexibly and optimize hedging strategies, and the current volume of carbonate lithium futures hedging is low [13]. - **India's Policy Proposal**: India proposed to reduce the goods and services tax for entry - level two - wheelers, small cars, and hybrid passenger cars, and the proposal is expected to be implemented before October [13]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures market rose due to the overnight announcement of Jiangte Motor's production line maintenance and the fermentation of the anti-involution logic. The spot market also slightly followed the increase. The downstream's willingness to accept the price was low, but the procurement intention improved marginally. The rising price of lithium carbonate drove the profit repair of the upstream resource end and salt factories, but the price performance was suppressed by the arbitrage space. However, under the current sentiment, lithium carbonate is expected to follow the upward trend [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures opened higher. The main contract reached a maximum of 74,480 and closed at 72,880. The total position increased by 40,000 hands to 718,000 hands. The spot price of electric carbon rose by 1,100 to 69,100. The downstream's acceptance of the price was low, but the procurement intention improved. The price of Australian ore rose by 10 US dollars/ton to 767.5 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica rose by 45 to 1,590 yuan/ton. The production profit of salt factories using purchased lithium spodumene expanded to 833 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt factories using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 5,969 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industry News - Argentina's CAMMESA's first-round battery energy storage system tender received 27 projects from 15 companies, totaling 1.3 GW of bidding plans, far exceeding the 500 MW tender capacity. The winning results are expected to be announced in August 2025, and the contracts will be signed in September [14]. - On the morning of July 17, Jiangsu Weili Energy Technology Co., Ltd. launched a project with a total investment of 500 million yuan to process 30,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate battery cathode materials per year. The first phase is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual revenue of 550 million yuan and more than 200 new jobs [15].