Core Insights - The industrial structure of Qiannan Prefecture is undergoing a profound transformation driven by coupling, with traditional fertilizer's share in phosphate chemical products decreasing from 42.9% in 2018 to 20.5% in 2024, while the share of new energy battery materials like iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate has surged to 35% from nearly zero [1] - The economic value created from phosphate resources has significantly increased, with the production capacity of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate accounting for over 50% of the province's total, and the added value per ton of phosphate rock rising from approximately 2500 yuan to around 6000 yuan, effectively doubling [1] - The new energy battery materials industry in Qiannan is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Industry Transformation - The utilization rate of phosphogypsum in Qiannan has reached an industry-leading 97%, transforming environmental burdens into a green building materials industry with an annual output value exceeding 500 million yuan [2] - Qiannan's industrial development strategy emphasizes a clear focus on diverse industries, not solely reliant on phosphate [3] Regional Development - Under the "coupling symbiosis" model, various counties in Qiannan are identifying unique industrial rhythms, leading to complementary advantages and distinctive development [4] - The independent county of Dushan has become the largest production base for micro and small bearings in Guizhou, with 28 bearing and supporting enterprises and over 1500 production lines, capable of producing 1.1 billion sets of deep groove ball bearings annually [4] Technological Innovation - Qiannan is leveraging technological innovation to convert resource advantages into developmental strengths, with companies like Qixin focusing on high-sulfur coal processing to produce valuable chemical products [16] - The region is fostering a "government-industry-university-research-application" innovation ecosystem, with 219 innovative SMEs and 137 provincial-level specialized enterprises [18] Economic Growth - Qiannan has established a modern industrial system characterized by a "2+4+4" framework, with phosphate chemical and new energy battery materials as core engines, contributing over 650 billion yuan and accounting for more than 54% of industrial output [13] - The industrial value added in Qiannan has grown by 14% year-on-year from January to November, ranking first in the province, with industrial investment contributing significantly to economic growth [21]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the report 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on December 17, 2025, the prices of宁夏72 and 内蒙72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of -50 and -20, and weekly changes of 50 and 80. The prices of different contracts on the disk also had corresponding changes [2] - For silicon manganese, the prices of different regions such as 内蒙6517, 宁夏6517, etc. had different daily and weekly changes on the same day [2] Supply - The report presents the historical production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, including monthly and weekly production, as well as the capacity utilization rate of enterprises in different regions [5] - It also shows the historical production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and the procurement volume and price data of HeSteel Group [7] Demand - The report provides historical data on the demand volume of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, and also shows the production data of related products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, etc., which are related to the demand for ferroalloys [5][8] Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in different regions (China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions [6] - For silicon manganese, it presents the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, inventory average available days, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [8] Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, it shows the electricity price data in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of raw materials such as semi - coke, and the production cost, disk profit, and spot profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [6] - For silicon manganese, it shows the profit data of different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North Region, South Region) from 2021 - 2025, as well as the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract on the disk [8]

减产力度仍较弱 铁铁铁铁铁 2025/12/12 作者：李文涛 从业资格证号：F3050524 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 联系方式：18616861246 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 研究助理：尹艺瑾 从业资格证号：F03125275 联系方式：13752670838 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 铁铁 锰硅 港口现货小幅累库 观点小结 | 锰硅 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周盘面震荡下行。硅锰周度产量小幅回升，需求继续回落。国内主流钢厂陆续进场采购，河北大厂定价5770 元/吨，华东地区普遍围绕在5750元/吨，下浮空间逐步收窄，期现报价低价有所减少，宁夏期现提货价格逐步 | | 核心观点 | 偏强 | 靠拢5400元/吨，内蒙提货价格基差维持在220左右，与工厂现货报价差距缩减。成本端，锰矿南北港口高品氧 | | | | 化矿上浮，表现坚挺，海外矿山报价小幅上行，12月12日上午化工焦价格下跌50元/吨。市场关注后续焦炭现 | | | | 货价格博弈，合金利润情况较差。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 截至12月11日，锰硅1- ...

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: November 25, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data for ferroalloys such as ferrosilicon and ferromanganese. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Ferrosilicon**: - Spot prices vary by region and type. For example, Ningxia 72 natural block ferrosilicon is 5130 yuan, with a weekly change of - 20 yuan; Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon export price is 1020 US dollars, with a weekly change of - 10 US dollars [2]. - Futures prices also show differences among different contracts. The main contract of ferrosilicon is 5456 yuan, down 16 yuan daily and 206 yuan weekly [2]. - **Ferromanganese**: - Spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions have different changes. Inner Mongolia 6517 ferromanganese has an ex - factory price of 5520 yuan, with a weekly change of - 80 yuan [2]. - Futures prices of different contracts also fluctuate. The main contract of ferromanganese is 5630 yuan, up 24 yuan daily and down 162 yuan weekly [2]. Supply - **Ferrosilicon**: - The production data of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China are presented, including monthly output, weekly output, and capacity utilization in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The weekly production volume of ferromanganese in China and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group are provided [6]. Demand - **Ferrosilicon**: - Related to the production of products such as crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and metal magnesium. For example, the estimated monthly production of crude steel in China and the production of stainless - steel crude steel are shown [4]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The demand data of ferromanganese in China (according to Steel Union's caliber) are given, and it is also related to the production of crude steel [4][7]. Inventory - **Ferrosilicon**: - The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including total inventory and inventory in different regions like Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, are provided. Also, data on warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions are presented [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: - The inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in China are shown [7]. Cost and Profit - **Ferrosilicon**: - Cost - related data include electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi) and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi. Profit - related data include the profit of ferrosilicon in Ningxia (converted to the main contract and spot profit) and the export profit of 75% ferrosilicon [5]. - **Ferromanganese**: - Profit data in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region are provided, as well as the profit of Guangxi ferromanganese converted to the main contract [7].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No clear core viewpoint presented in the given text. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: Spot prices in different regions showed various changes, e.g., Ningxia 72 remained at 5150 with no daily change and a -20 weekly change; Inner Mongolia 72 was at 5200 with no daily or weekly change. Futures prices also had different daily and weekly variations, such as the 01 - contract at 5506 with a 16 - point daily change and an - 80 - point weekly change [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Spot prices in different regions had different changes, like Inner Mongolia 6517 remained at 5600 with no daily change and a -20 weekly change; Ningxia 6517 was at 5550 with a -10 daily and weekly change. Futures prices also had corresponding fluctuations, e.g., the 01 - contract at 5756 with a -6 daily and -42 weekly change [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 were presented, including monthly production and weekly production with a 95% capacity share. The capacity utilization rates of these enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi were also shown [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 were provided, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data included the production of crude steel, stainless - steel crude steel, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group in China from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 were shown, including the estimated demand volume (Steel Union caliber) and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 were presented, including total inventory, inventory in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), and inventory - related indicators such as warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory - available days in different regions [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 were provided, including warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, total inventory, and inventory - available days in China, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data included electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of semi - coke, and the market price of silica. The profit - related data included the production profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit - related data included the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions, as well as the profit of silicon manganese converted to the main - contract price in Guangxi and Ningxia [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for silicon manganese and silicon iron are generally neutral, with some specific aspects having a "bullish" or "bearish" tendency. For example, the "Steel & Metal Magnesium Production" aspect of silicon iron is rated as bullish, while the "Inventory" aspect is rated as bearish [3][4] 2. Report's Core Views Silicon Manganese - The market is currently characterized by a slight decline in weekly production, with steel mills resuming production and molten iron output basically recovering. The combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for manganese silicon is decreasing, and the proportion of hidden inventory is increasing. On the cost side, there is an obvious upward trend in the spot price of manganese ore at northern ports, while the price of chemical coke has decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The overall market sentiment is neutral [3] Silicon Iron - The market sentiment is average, with the market referring to HBIS's tender price. The production of silicon iron is relatively stable. On the demand side, blast furnaces of northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, molten iron output is rising, and the output of metal magnesium is continuing to increase slightly. It is expected that the demand for silicon iron will increase in the future. Currently, the immediate-profit situation in the main production areas is poor, and the price of semi-coke has risen slightly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Manganese Ore - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 4.525 million tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory at Tianjin Port has increased slightly to 3.803 million tons, still lower than the same period last year, while the inventory at Qinzhou Port has decreased slightly to 717,000 tons, approaching the level of the same period last year [12] - The inventory of South African ore at Tianjin Port is 2.698 million tons, showing a slight increase. The inventory of Gabon ore is 293,000 tons, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous period and far lower than the same period last year. The inventory of Australian ore is 362,000 tons, showing a slight increase and approaching the level of the same period last year [15] - The price of Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port is 40 yuan/ton-degree, Australian lumps are 40.2 yuan/ton-degree, and South African semi-carbonate is 34.3 yuan/ton-degree, showing a slight increase. The actual transaction price of manganese ore is slightly lower than the quoted price [17] Supply - As of September 19, the weekly output of silicon manganese has increased to 208,800 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia has decreased to 14,440 tons/day, in Ningxia has decreased significantly to 6,530 tons/day, in Yunnan has increased slightly to 2,700 tons/day, in Guizhou has increased slightly to 1,900 tons/day, and in Guangxi is 1,345 tons/day [30] Demand - As of September 19, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises is 121,400 tons, and the weekly output of the five major steel products has decreased to 855,460 tons. The proportion of rebar output in the total output of the five major steel products has decreased [40] Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 5,730 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 5,820 yuan/ton. HBIS's tender price is 6,000 yuan/ton [48] Cost and Profit - As of September 19, the price of chemical coke has decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The ex-factory prices of 25 - 40mm chemical coke in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,060 yuan/ton, and 1,090 yuan/ton respectively. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented [51] - The immediate profit of silicon manganese is low, but the loss situation has improved. The market is fluctuating upwards, the price of manganese ore is firm, and the price of chemical coke has decreased slightly [53] Month Spread - As of September 18, the 1 - 5 month spread of silicon manganese is -44 yuan/ton, showing a low-level fluctuation [56] Basis and Inventory - The market is fluctuating upwards, the spot price has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened slightly. As of September 18, the combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for silicon manganese is 319,950 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period but still maintaining a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery situation after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in October [59] Silicon Iron Supply - As of September 12, the weekly output is 113,100 tons. The daily average output in Inner Mongolia is 5,190 tons, in Qinghai is 2,360 tons, in Ningxia is 3,920 tons, and in Shaanxi is 2,580 tons [73] Demand - The demand for silicon iron from steel mills has decreased, but the total consumption of silicon iron by Mysteel sample steel mills is still significantly higher than the same period last year. Blast furnaces of northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, molten iron output is rising significantly, and it is expected that the demand for silicon iron will increase in the future [77] - As of September 19, the export price of metal magnesium at Tianjin Port is 2,435 US dollars/ton, and the market price has decreased slightly to 16,750 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable overall. The weekly output of metal magnesium is 17,241 tons, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. The supply side of magnesium ingots has raised the quoted price, but the actual market follow - up and trading volume are insufficient, and most buyers are cautiously waiting and watching. Real - order purchases are scarce, and low - price sources are also hard to find, resulting in a stalemate in supply - demand trading [86] Price - As of September 19, the overseas FOB price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 1,105 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 - grade silicon iron is 1,025 US dollars/ton, showing a slight increase compared to the previous period. In July, the import volume of silicon iron decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while the export volume increased slightly and is higher than the same period last year [90] Cost and Profit - As of September 19, the prices of small - sized semi - coke in the main production areas have increased slightly. The current prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia are 660 yuan/ton, 695 yuan/ton, and 650 yuan/ton respectively. The price of oxidized iron scale remains at 830 yuan/ton [97] - As of September 18, the point - to - point profit loss of silicon iron has narrowed slightly. The loss in Shaanxi is relatively large, while that in Inner Mongolia is relatively small. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are -209 yuan/ton, -262 yuan/ton, -274 yuan/ton, and -213 yuan/ton respectively [106] Month Spread - As of September 18, the 11 - 1 month spread of silicon iron is 12 yuan/ton, showing a slight weakening compared to the previous period and lower than the same period last year [108] Basis and Inventory - The market is fluctuating upwards, the basis of silicon iron has weakened slightly, and as of September 18, the basis is -394 yuan/ton. As of September 18, the combined quantity of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for silicon iron is 94,780 tons, showing a significant increase compared to the previous period [111] Balance Sheet - The balance sheets for silicon manganese and silicon iron from January to December 2025 show the supply, demand, production, import, export, and surplus/deficit situations for each month, as well as the year - on - year cumulative changes in production and consumption [113][114]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: The latest prices of 72% FeSi in different regions vary, with prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi at 5600, 5600, 5600, and 5550 respectively, and prices of 75% FeSi in Shaanxi at 5950. There are also price differences among different contracts and bases, such as the main contract at 5696, and the main monthly basis at 204 [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The closing price of the main contract of CZCE silicon manganese, basis differences in different regions, and price differences between different varieties are presented, like the main contract closing price, Jiangsu basis, and north - south price difference [5]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China, their capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the export prices of 72% and 75% FeSi at Tianjin Port are shown. The production of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China has different trends from 2021 - 2025 [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The production of silicon manganese in China, the procurement price and quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the prices of manganese ores from different origins are included. The production of silicon manganese in China has shown different values from 2021 - 2025 [5]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data includes the production of crude steel in China, the price and production of metal magnesium, the export quantity of silicon iron, and the procurement of Hebei Iron and Steel Group. The production of crude steel in China has different pre - estimated values from 2021 - 2025 [3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand data involves the demand in China (by Steel Union's caliber), the export quantity, and the production of crude steel in China. The demand in China has been changing from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory average available days in different regions are provided. The inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China has different values from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, as well as the inventory average available days in China are presented. The warehouse receipts of silicon manganese in China have shown different trends from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data includes electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has changed from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions, as well as the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract, are shown. The profit in Inner Mongolia has different values from 2021 - 2025 [6].