Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the treasury bond futures market declined across the board, showing a pattern of long - term weakness and short - term stability. The 30 - year main contract (TL2603) led the decline, hitting the largest single - day decline since December 18. The 10 - year (T2603), 5 - year (TF2603), and 2 - year (TS2603) contracts fell slightly, with limited short - end declines supported by loose liquidity. The total market turnover was 281.724 billion yuan, and the 30 - year contract turnover was 107.144 billion yuan, accounting for 38% of the total market, indicating that the ultra - long end remained the core of capital game [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price**: On December 26, 2025, the ten - year treasury bond (T2603) futures contract opened lower at 108.200 yuan, showed a volatile trend during the day, with an intraday low of 108.195 yuan. The daily K - line closed positive, with a trading volume of 67,379 lots and an open interest of 253,517 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: Among the 12 treasury bond futures contracts, the prices of the two - year treasury bond contracts (TS2603, TS2606, TS2609) showed a pattern of near - term low and long - term high; the prices of the five - year treasury bond contracts (TF2603, TF2606, TF2609) showed a pattern of near - term high and long - term low; the prices of the ten - year treasury bond contracts (T2603, T2606, T2609) showed a long - term low pattern; the prices of the thirty - year treasury bond contracts (TL2603, TL2606, TL2609) showed a near - term low pattern. The open interest of the ten - year treasury bond (T2603) contract was the highest among all contracts [3][5]. 3.2 Spot Market - On December 26, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40% through quantity tender. The maturity amount was 56.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Related Information - Technical Analysis - For the ten - year treasury bond (T2603) futures contract, the daily K - line closed positive, with an intraday high of 108.330 yuan. The MACD indicator continued to run with a golden cross near the zero - axis, and the trading volume was greater than the previous day [9].

Group 1: Market Conditions - The price of the 30-year Treasury bond contract shows a market pattern of lower near-term prices and higher long-term prices, and the 10-year Treasury bond (T2603) contract has the largest open interest among all contracts, with 220,889 lots [5]. - The trading data of various Treasury bond futures contracts are presented in detail, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, trading volume, turnover, open interest, and changes in open interest [6]. Group 2: Spot Market - On December 12, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 120.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% [7]. Group 3: Related Information - For the 10-year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, the daily K-line shows a negative K-line, with an intraday high of 108.210 yuan. The MACD indicator continues to converge below the zero - axis, and the trading volume is greater than the previous day [8]. Group 4: Market Outlook - On the day, the main Treasury bond futures contracts all declined, with obvious term differentiation characteristics. The 30-year ultra - long - end contracts led the decline, while the short - end 2 - year contracts had limited declines. The main driving factors include the unexpectedly dovish Fed policy, the transmission of overseas liquidity easing, the continuation of the loose domestic capital situation with short - term pressure relief, the decline in A - share risk appetite, the increase in long - end allocation due to hedging demand, and the strengthening of the medium - and long - term easing logic by policy expectations [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On the current day, Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend of short - term gains and long - term losses. The 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year main contracts rose slightly, while the 30 - year contract declined against the trend. The capital situation remained loose, but the central bank net - withdrew 13.4 billion yuan on the day. Coupled with the supply - demand pressure of ultra - long bonds and differences in policy expectations, the adjustment pressure on long - term varieties increased. The trading volume of the main contracts was concentrated in the next - quarter contracts (2603 contracts), and the trading volume of the 30 - year contract reached 126.7 billion yuan, ranking first, indicating a high degree of participation of trading funds in long - term fluctuations [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - On the current day, the contract with the largest open interest among all contracts was the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, with an open interest of 233,603 lots. The report also presented detailed market data of various Treasury bond futures contracts, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, trading amount, open interest, change in open interest, settlement price, and price changes [5] 2. Spot Market - On December 3, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. On the same day, 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan of funds on the day [6] 3. Related News - In the technical analysis of the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, the daily K - line showed a positive K - line with a long lower shadow on the current day. It was currently trading below the 20 - day moving average, with an intraday high of 108.060 yuan. The MACD indicator continued to show a death cross near the zero - axis, and the trading volume was greater than that of the previous day [7]