国泰君安期货宁波客户某集团为有产业背景的实体企业，主要通过商品期货进行套期保值，之前没有国债期货交易经 验。在利率下行周期中，企业存在资金成本偏高影响全年损益的痛点。国泰君安期货结合国债期货风险管理白皮书及利 率曲线形态展望研究，为客户制定了利用30年期国债期货合约对冲资金成本的方案，通过国债期货的资金使用效率优 势，有效降低了客户的全年资金成本。 服务方案与开展过程 项目背景 该集团产业涵盖实体产业链运营、外贸综合服务、跨境综合服务、汽车销售及后市场等。该客户主营业务在生产、贸易 过程中涉及大量大宗商品的期货、现货业务。其期现业务团队通过在现货、期货市场对生产贸易原材料价格、基差、产 业链逻辑与宏观因素进行综合判断，达到套期保值甚至赚取利润的年度目标。 图为整体服务思路 作为产业链上的实体企业，其优势在于现货贸易大幅提升了期现业务团队在商品期货市场中的策略空间。企业可以通过 套期保值、基差回归、盘面点价等方式获取产业利润，甚至寻找合适的产业链对手方分配利润。同时，客户期现业务部 门的性质又与金融机构的自营部门有一定的相似性：既有绝对收益目标，又存在资金成本约束，即绝对收益要跑赢整体 资金成本。年初定资金成本 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On the current day, Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend of short - term gains and long - term losses. The 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year main contracts rose slightly, while the 30 - year contract declined against the trend. The capital situation remained loose, but the central bank net - withdrew 13.4 billion yuan on the day. Coupled with the supply - demand pressure of ultra - long bonds and differences in policy expectations, the adjustment pressure on long - term varieties increased. The trading volume of the main contracts was concentrated in the next - quarter contracts (2603 contracts), and the trading volume of the 30 - year contract reached 126.7 billion yuan, ranking first, indicating a high degree of participation of trading funds in long - term fluctuations [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - On the current day, the contract with the largest open interest among all contracts was the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, with an open interest of 233,603 lots. The report also presented detailed market data of various Treasury bond futures contracts, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, trading volume, trading amount, open interest, change in open interest, settlement price, and price changes [5] 2. Spot Market - On December 3, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. On the same day, 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan of funds on the day [6] 3. Related News - In the technical analysis of the ten - year Treasury bond (T2603) contract, the daily K - line showed a positive K - line with a long lower shadow on the current day. It was currently trading below the 20 - day moving average, with an intraday high of 108.060 yuan. The MACD indicator continued to show a death cross near the zero - axis, and the trading volume was greater than that of the previous day [7]

国债期限利差进一步走阔 2025.12. 04 本文字数：2800，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 最近债圈的日子"不好过"。12月4日早盘，股债市场齐跌，持续阴跌的债市迎来更大幅度调整，超 长债抛压尤为明显。 30年期国债期货合约全天跌超1%，创近期单日最大跌幅；30年超长债收益率一度上行4BP（基 点），"25超长特别国债06"收益率已经来到2.28%附近。 不同于前期"股债跷跷板"效应下的债市波动，四季度以来债市接连阴跌，期限利差不断走阔。对于 债市进一步大跌，有市场人士对第一财经表示，作为交易主线之一的央行国债买卖不及预期已被市场 消化，但持续下跌加上短期无明显利好，机构抛售兑现老券浮盈叠加买盘力量弱，极易形成负反馈。 不少机构分析，短期恐慌情绪难免，但在长期趋势下，此轮深跌也为后续反弹留下空间。12月将有 10000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，央行4日晚间公告称将于5日进行等量续作。 4日主要利率债缘何进一步深跌？"主要是交易行为导致的踩踏，基本面解释不了。"一位债市人士对 记者表示，前期持续阴跌加上短期内看不到明显利好，市场恐慌情绪升温，部分机构选择落袋为安， 但买盘力量明显偏弱， ...

最近债圈的日子"不好过"。12月4日早盘，股债市场齐跌，持续阴跌的债市迎来更大幅度调整，超长债 抛压尤为明显。 30年期国债期货合约全天跌超1%，创近期单日最大跌幅；30年超长债收益率一度上行4BP（基 点），"25超长特别国债06"收益率已经来到2.28%附近。 不同于前期"股债跷跷板"效应下的债市波动，四季度以来债市接连阴跌，期限利差不断走阔。对于债市 进一步大跌，有市场人士对第一财经表示，作为交易主线之一的央行国债买卖不及预期已被市场消化， 但持续下跌加上短期无明显利好，机构抛售兑现老券浮盈叠加买盘力量弱，极易形成负反馈。 不少机构分析，短期恐慌情绪难免，但在长期趋势下，此轮深跌也为后续反弹留下空间。12月将有 10000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期，央行4日晚间公告称将于5日进行等量续作。 国债期限利差进一步走阔 临近年末，尽管资金面整体延续宽松态势，但持续阴跌的债市没有修复迹象，反而迎来了进一步深跌。 12月4日，截至收盘，国债期货全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌1.04%，创下2024年11月22日以来新低； 10年期主力合约跌0.35%，5年期主力合约跌0.24%，2年期主力合约跌0.05%。 银行 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the slight rise in the bond market, with specific movements in various government bond ETFs and futures contracts [1] - As of August 14, the bond ETF market has seen a net inflow of 3003.08 billion yuan this year, with a total market size exceeding 5363.42 billion yuan, marking a 3.55% increase since early August [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF has reached a new historical high, surpassing 250 billion yuan in size, indicating strong institutional demand for bond ETFs [2] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 5000 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a stable interest rate of 1.40%, reflecting the current liquidity conditions in the market [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond has increased by 1.25 basis points to 1.7325%, while the 30-year government bond yield rose by 1.2 basis points to 1.977%, indicating a general upward trend in bond yields [1] - The market penetration of bond ETFs is expected to increase, driven by the demand from long-term funds such as pensions and annuities, as well as the advantages of ETF products in asset allocation [2]