东莞证券认为，周四，A股三大指数小幅上涨。从技术分析角度看，沪指站稳五日均线，技术面短期多 头占优，五日均线与年线突破形成双支撑，后续若突破压力位则可挑战4000点位。当日离岸人民币兑美 元汇率升破7.0重要关口，这是自2024年9月以来的首次突破。人民币适度升值对中国股市总体形成积极 利好。这一走势有助于提升人民币资产的整体吸引力，进一步提振市场投资需求。对于关注汇兑收益的 境外机构投资者而言，他们既能赚取资产增值收益，又能获得汇率升值带来的红利，从而实现双重收 益。这种效应有望推动中国股市获得持续增量资金流入，增强市场活力与稳定性，为资本市场长期发展 提供支持。 中原证券认为，周四，上证指数早盘低开高走，午后震荡上扬；深证成指、创业板指早盘探底回升，午 后震荡上扬，尾盘有所回落。盘中航天航空、机器人、通用设备以及风电设备等行业表现较好；贵金 属、能源金属、商业百货以及汽车整车等行业表现较弱。年末在资金面扰动、政策预期消化与海外流动 性反复等因素交织下，预计上证指数围绕4000点附近蓄势整固的可能性较大，建议密切关注宏观经济数 据、海外流动性变化以及政策动向。 财信证券认为，周四，海外市场迎来"圣诞假期"， ...

四季度以来，港股市场震荡加剧。临近年底，随着圣诞节假期到来，港股是否会出现类似A股"春季行 情"的"圣诞行情"备受关注。 在业内人士看来，港股"圣诞行情"或可以作为驱动超跌反弹的叙事，但对投资的指导意义可能有限。不 过考虑到市场流动性冲击结束叠加估值处于低位，港股仍具有较高的投资性价比，电力链中上游资源 品、出行链标的、国产AI龙头等细分品种布局价值获得看好。 仍在左侧布局区间 从港股市场四季度整体表现看，在10月2日盘中创出阶段新高后，恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数便呈现 区间震荡态势，11月中旬以来再度震荡走低；恒生科技指数则从四季度以来便持续调整。随着近几个交 易日市场出现反弹迹象，叠加即将到来的圣诞节休市，投资者开始关注港股市场是否会出现类似A 股"春季行情"的"圣诞行情"。 "'圣诞行情'或许可以作为驱动超跌反弹的叙事，但对投资的指导意义可能有限。"在招商证券首席策略 分析师张夏看来，将有限样本的数据线性外推可能缺乏一定的置信度，但并不妨碍这一叙事在市场超跌 的背景下驱动一波反弹；从目前外资参与港股情况看，被动资金正在替代主动资金成为主要增量资金， 过去存在的"圣诞行情"可能也会随着投资环境的变迁而改变 ...

12 价格呈现近低远高的市场格局，三十年国债合约，价格呈现近低远 高的市场走势，当日十年国债（T2603）合约持仓量 220889 手，持 仓量在所有合约中最多。 图表 2:国债期货行情表 | 导致代码 | 今开盘 | 磨宗伦 | 智能松 | 成交量 | 成交合额 | 持合曹 | 持仓变化 | 今收盘 | 今結算 | 前结算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | -440 | 102.47 | 102.454 | 102.47 | 0 | -0.016 | | TS2603 | 102.494 | 102.498 | 102.446 | 33.277 | 6,819,507.48 | 72.759 | -92 | 102.464 | 102,462 | 102.478 | -0.014 | -0.016 | | TS2606 | 102.518 | 102.518 | 102.47 | 152 | 31. ...

Core Insights - The recent U.S. CPI data indicates a year-on-year increase of 3.0% for September, slightly above August's 2.9% but below Wall Street's expectation of 3.1%, suggesting inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target while showing signs of cooling [3][4] - Following the CPI release, U.S. Treasury yields reacted, with the 10-year yield dropping by 4 basis points to around 3.96%, indicating market expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve policy moving forward [3][4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The CPI data, despite being delayed, signals a gradual easing of inflationary pressures, which is crucial for investment strategies focused on long-term trends [4][5] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely lower interest rates in upcoming meetings, with expectations rising from a cumulative 47 basis points to 49 basis points [3][4] Investment Implications - The easing of inflation and the potential for a more accommodative monetary policy suggest increased certainty for interest rate-sensitive sectors, such as growth stocks and certain overseas assets [4] - Investors are advised to wait for the Federal Reserve's next meeting to better understand capital flows before making investment decisions, emphasizing a cautious approach to market movements [4][5]

创新出海产业周期延续 1-9月中国创新药专利出海合同总金额超1000亿美元，同比增长170%。 历史上降息周期中全球医药生物资产都有好的表现，9月18日以来美股NBI+7%，欧洲、韩国的生物科 技公司整体表现也较好，横向来看基本面较好的港股创新药反而最弱，当前位置中长期来看具备配置机 会。 相关标的： 恒生创新药ETF（159316，联接A/C：024328/024329） 港股通医药ETF（513200，联接A/C：018557/018558） 医药ETF（512010，联接A/C：001344/007883） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 展望后续，10-11月一系列海外医药学术会议将召开（其中，全球肿瘤学影响力最强的学术会议之一 ESMO将于10月17日-21日在柏林召开），中国创新药企业和实验室将展示最新成果。 Q4作为创新药BD旺季，建议持续关注中国药企出海表现。 海外流动性宽松周期有利于生物医药资产表现 9月18日，美联储宣布降息25bp。美联储主席鲍威尔周二在全美商业经济协会年会上发表讲话被市场解 读为继续降息的信号，当前联邦基金期货合约数据显示的降息概 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report of AI Fund Huatai Fuhua Dividend Growth Mixed A (006259) indicates a profit of 26.9963 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0506 yuan. The fund's net value growth rate is 3.2%, and the fund size is 735 million yuan as of the end of the first half of the year [3]. Fund Performance - As of September 2, the fund's unit net value is 1.708 yuan. The fund manager, Lao Jienan and Huang Yaofeng, manage two funds with positive returns over the past year. The highest net value growth rate among comparable funds is 22.64%, while the lowest for this fund is 22.19% [3][6]. - The fund's recent performance includes a net value growth rate of 10.99% over the past three months, 12.74% over the past six months, and 22.19% over the past year, ranking 216/256, 198/256, and 229/256 respectively among comparable funds [6]. Valuation Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's weighted price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 4.94 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 26.16 times. The weighted price-to-book ratio (LF) is about 0.51 times, compared to the average of 2.38 times, and the weighted price-to-sales ratio (TTM) is around 0.62 times, against an average of 2.05 times [11]. Growth Indicators - For the first half of 2025, the fund's weighted revenue growth rate (TTM) is 0.04%, and the weighted net profit growth rate (TTM) is 0.14%. The weighted annualized return on equity is 0.1% [18]. Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's three-year Sharpe ratio is -0.1277, ranking 160/240 among comparable funds. The maximum drawdown over the past three years is 25.85%, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2021 at 20.81% [26][28]. Fund Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's total assets amount to 735 million yuan, with 36,700 holders collectively owning 472 million shares. Institutional investors hold 14.53% of the shares, while individual investors account for 85.47% [32][36]. - The fund's top ten holdings include Zijin Mining, China Shenhua, Agricultural Bank of China, Tencent Holdings, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shanghai Bank, Beijing Bank, Yangtze Power, Bank of China, and China Pacific Insurance [42].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on August 27, with significant gains in automotive stocks, Apple-related stocks, and gold stocks, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The report from Caitong Securities highlights the support for domestic chips by DeepSeek-V3.1 and suggests that domestic computing power is entering a major upward phase, while the Federal Reserve's shift in stance may lead to a more favorable liquidity environment for AI stocks [1] - The report emphasizes that the AI core assets are still in the early stages of a market rally, with domestic computing power accelerating and the Hang Seng Technology Index nearing a critical point for investment [1] Group 2 - Expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have increased, which may lead to improved global liquidity benefiting the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the high-growth technology sector [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently undervalued relative to historical levels and is expected to respond positively to the easing of liquidity conditions, potentially leading to a "catch-up" rally [2] - Investors without a Hong Kong Stock Connect account can consider the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) as a means to invest in core Chinese AI assets [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the index rising nearly 3.5% on August 25, and the largest ETF tracking this index seeing a gain of over 4% [1] - Major stocks within the Hang Seng Technology Index, such as NIO, ASMPT, Alibaba, Baidu, NetEase, Horizon Robotics, and Lenovo, have shown substantial increases, with NIO surging over 13% [1] - Recent institutional analysis suggests that the Hang Seng Technology Index may have a chance for a rebound, especially as the Shanghai Composite Index reaches a ten-year high and the ChiNext Index breaks recent highs [1] Group 2 - The inflow of funds into the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) has been notable, with approximately 5.498 billion yuan net inflow over the past 20 trading days, bringing the total size to a record high of 37 billion yuan [1] - Cross-border ETFs have seen over 80 billion yuan in net inflows in the past month, with the technology, financial, and innovative pharmaceutical sectors in Hong Kong being the main beneficiaries [1] - The recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised expectations for a rate cut in September, which is likely to enhance liquidity and bullish sentiment in the Hong Kong market [1][2] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently viewed as being relatively undervalued, making it more sensitive to changes in the US-China interest rate differential, thus benefiting from a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment [2] - The index is characterized by high elasticity and growth potential, suggesting that improvements in market conditions could lead to stronger upward momentum [2] - Investors without access to the Hong Kong Stock Connect can consider the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) as a means to invest in core Chinese AI assets [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, experienced a significant upward movement, with the index rising nearly 3.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) increasing over 4% [1][2] - Key stocks driving this rally included NIO, ASMPT, Alibaba, Baidu, NetEase, and Horizon Robotics, with NIO seeing a rise of over 13% [1] - The market sentiment was influenced by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, indicating potential interest rate cuts in September due to risks in the employment market [1][2] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated an over 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, suggesting a favorable environment for the Hong Kong stock market, especially the tech sector [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is currently viewed as undervalued and is highly sensitive to changes in the US-China interest rate differential, positioning it to benefit significantly from the easing of overseas liquidity [2] - The index is characterized by high elasticity and growth potential, indicating that improvements in market conditions could lead to stronger upward momentum [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened positively on August 25, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.49% [1] - The largest ETF in the same sector, the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), saw its gains exceed 2.5%, with notable increases in stocks like NIO, SMIC, Kingdee International, Baidu, and Alibaba, particularly NIO which surged over 13% [1] - NIO officially launched its new ES8 model on August 21, with a pre-sale price range of 416,800 to 456,800 yuan, and battery leasing options priced between 308,800 to 348,800 yuan, with deliveries expected to start in late September [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley noted that despite the lower price, the new ES8 has a larger size, longer range, and enhanced features, including a larger LED display and advanced charging capabilities, which could further boost NIO's stock price [1] - The stock price of NIO has increased by 49% over the past two months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 7% rise during the same period, indicating strong market interest [1] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut has raised expectations for improved liquidity in overseas markets, which could benefit the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the tech sector [2]