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2025年中期通信行业投资策略报告:算力引擎强驱动,星地空网共发展-20250801
Wanlian Securities· 2025-08-01 11:08
Core Insights - The communication industry has significantly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices in the first seven months of 2025, ranking third among 31 primary industries [1][12] - The valuation of the communication industry as of July 2025 is comparable to the beginning of the year but remains at a higher level than the historical three-year average [1][15] - The industry is experiencing stable operations in the first half of 2025, with emerging businesses playing a prominent role in driving growth [1][17] - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the AI computing industry chain and the integration of space and ground networks [1][30] Investment Themes AI Computing Industry Chain - Major domestic and international companies are increasing capital expenditures, indicating a global arms race in computing power [2][37] - The demand for AI infrastructure is accelerating, with liquid cooling technology becoming mainstream in data center construction [2][37] - The demand for optical modules is transitioning to higher speeds, while high-speed copper connections still have market demand [2][37] Space and Ground Integration - The low-altitude economy is optimizing infrastructure, with leading eVTOL companies obtaining necessary certifications for commercial operations [6][30] - China's satellite internet industry is continuously launching low-orbit satellites, with advancements in mobile direct satellite connectivity accelerating commercialization [6][30] Industry Performance - The communication industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 21.16% from January to July 2025, outperforming both the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [12][14] - Emerging business revenues, including cloud computing and big data, have increased significantly, contributing to overall revenue growth in the telecommunications sector [19][25] - The number of fixed broadband users is steadily increasing, with a notable rise in users with gigabit access speeds [20][27] Policy and Future Outlook - The government report emphasizes the importance of nurturing emerging and future industries, including commercial aerospace and low-altitude economies [30][31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on standardizing emerging and future industries, which will support the development of the communication sector [32][34] - The report suggests that investment opportunities should focus on AI computing infrastructure and the integration of space and ground networks, driven by policy support and technological advancements [7][30]
通信行业:我国AI算力增速高于预期,关注两会政策预期
中国银河· 2025-03-04 07:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the communication industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The global artificial intelligence market continues to grow, with China's intelligent computing development rate exceeding expectations. IDC forecasts that by 2025, China's intelligent computing scale will reach 1,037.3 EFLOPS, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.2% from 2023 to 2028 [31][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming Two Sessions meetings in March 2025, which may influence policy directions and market sentiment [11] - The communication sector is expected to benefit from the digital economy's new infrastructure, with a focus on AI applications and the recovery of the optical network industry chain [4][24] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The communication sector index fell by 9.64% in the past week, while the switch manufacturing sub-sector performed well with a gain of 10.04% [8][19] - Among individual stocks, 10.69% increased, 1.53% remained stable, and 87.78% declined [22] 2. Industry Development and Key Events - The report highlights the rapid growth of the industrial internet, 5G applications, and the integration of AI in various sectors, indicating a promising outlook for the communication industry [11][24] - China Mobile has successfully completed the full-stack domestic deployment of DeepSeek V3/R1 for China Petroleum, enhancing AI technology applications in the energy sector [9] 3. Major Equipment Manufacturers' Dynamics - ZTE Corporation reported a revenue of 121.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.42 billion yuan for 2024, maintaining stable performance despite a decline in telecom capital expenditure [10][49] - Huawei announced the launch of the Star River communication system, marking a significant breakthrough in satellite communication technology [10][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality stocks in sub-sectors with improving market conditions, particularly in digital infrastructure and AI applications [4][24]