Core Viewpoint - The three major telecom operators in China have unified their outbound marketing numbers to combat the long-standing issue of telemarketing fraud and protect consumer rights [1][2][3] Group 1: Unified Outbound Marketing Numbers - The unified outbound marketing numbers for the three operators are: China Telecom 10001, China Unicom 10016, and China Mobile 10085, allowing users to easily identify official marketing calls [1][2] - This initiative aims to provide users with a "fraud prevention guide" and compel operators to enhance internal controls, ensuring transparency and compliance in telemarketing practices [2][3] Group 2: Addressing Telemarketing Issues - The unification of outbound numbers is just the starting point in addressing telemarketing chaos, as it does not restrict third-party companies that access telecom lines, which are the main source of nuisance calls [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed that all commercial outbound calls use the 700 number segment to ensure clear identification across the industry [2] Group 3: Impact on Services - The discontinuation of services like Alibaba's virtual number, which was misused for marketing, signifies a crucial step in rectifying the outbound marketing ecosystem [3] - The telecom industry is urged to prioritize genuine service over manipulative marketing tactics, fostering trust through transparent agreements and accountable practices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Jia Shi Hong Li Selected Mixed Initiation A (022495) reported a profit of 8.4585 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a net asset value growth rate of 7.49% and a fund size of 56.7366 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [4] Fund Performance - The fund's profit per weighted average share for the reporting period was 0.0883 yuan [4] - As of July 21, the unit net value was 1.112 yuan [4] Investment Strategy - The fund management maintains the view of a "dividend+" era, emphasizing that dividends remain a long-term effective fundamental factor, although performance among different dividend assets may vary [4] - Focus areas include traditional long-duration assets such as banks, public utilities, telecom operators, oil, and home appliances, while also incorporating some dividend growth assets like Hong Kong internet stocks and export chains [4] Market Outlook - The fund expects stable economic performance in the second half of the year, with a more balanced market style anticipated due to the strong performance of consumption and growth sectors in the first half [4] - The fund will closely monitor the fundamental changes in various dividend assets to identify higher-quality opportunities in specific sectors and will also optimize the portfolio performance through a contrarian approach [4] Top Holdings - As of the end of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund include Jiangsu Bank, China Merchants Bank, China Construction Bank, China Mobile, Chengdu Bank, Hangzhou Bank, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, New Energy Group, Guotou Power, and Chuan Investment Energy [5]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies in technology, energy, industrial, and consumer sectors will provide significant insights into corporate health and macroeconomic conditions [1]. Group 1: Technology Sector - Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) are the focal points among the "Seven Giants" in the technology sector, with other notable companies including Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW), IBM (NYSE: IBM), and NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ: NXPI) [1]. - Tesla is expected to report a 22% decline in profit and a 12% drop in revenue, with a 14% decrease in vehicle deliveries to 384,122 units [11][13]. - Google is anticipated to show strong double-digit growth in both revenue and profit, with a consensus revenue expectation of $22.36 billion and earnings per share forecasted at $0.40 [14][19]. Group 2: Telecommunications Sector - Verizon (NYSE: VZ) is set to report a 3% year-over-year increase in revenue and profit, with a consensus revenue expectation of $33.71 billion and earnings per share forecasted at $1.19 [4][5]. - Analysts maintain a cautious outlook on Verizon, with some suggesting a "hold" rating due to growth concerns, while others highlight its attractive valuation and stable dividend yield of 6.5% [4]. Group 3: Consumer Sector - Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is expected to report earnings with a consensus revenue of $12.56 billion and earnings per share of $0.84, having exceeded earnings expectations in the past eight quarters [7][9]. - Analysts are divided on Coca-Cola's outlook, with some expressing concerns over its reliance on price increases rather than sustainable volume growth, while others emphasize its strong fundamentals and dividend stability [7]. Group 4: Energy Sector - Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is projected to see a 27% decline in profit and a 17% drop in revenue, with earnings per share expected at $0.01 and revenue forecasted at $11.88 billion [23][25]. - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating for Phillips 66, citing its diversified business strength and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, despite concerns over high valuations relative to peers [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the telecommunications industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The telecommunications operators are experiencing steady growth in their user base, with mobile phone users reaching 1.8 billion as of March 2025, an increase of 9.945 million from the previous year [5][12]. - The net profit for major operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom grew by 3.45%, 3.11%, and 6.50% respectively in Q1 2025, despite a slowdown in traditional telecom business revenue growth [23]. - The operators are focusing on enhancing shareholder returns, with dividend payout ratios for 2024 set at 73% for China Mobile, 72% for China Telecom, and 60% for China Unicom, reflecting a commitment to increasing cash distributions to shareholders [30][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance and Dividend Growth - The user base continues to grow, with mobile phone users reaching 1.8 billion and 5G users at 1.068 billion as of March 2025, marking a net increase of 5.445 million [12][5]. - The operators' revenue and profit are showing steady growth, with China Mobile's revenue for 2024 projected at 1,040.759 billion yuan, a 3.1% increase [18]. - The dividend payout ratios are increasing, with China Mobile planning a total dividend of 5.09 HKD per share for 2024, a 5.4% increase from 2023 [33]. 2. Capital Expenditure and Cloud Business Growth - Capital expenditures are focusing on computing power, with China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom planning capital expenditures of 151.2 billion, 83.6 billion, and 55 billion yuan respectively for 2025, reflecting a decrease from previous years [37][38]. - The cloud business is rapidly expanding, with China Mobile's cloud revenue expected to reach 100.4 billion yuan in 2024, a 20.4% increase [48]. - The operators are enhancing their cloud services, with China Telecom's cloud revenue projected to reach 113.9 billion yuan in 2025, a 17.1% increase [48]. 3. Vertical Applications and International Business Growth - The deployment of 5G applications is accelerating, with China Mobile's 5G private network revenue reaching 8.7 billion yuan in 2024, a 61% increase [61]. - All three major operators reported double-digit growth in international business revenue, with China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom achieving growth rates of 15.4%, 10.2%, and 15.2% respectively in 2024 [66][67]. - The operators are actively participating in international collaborations to promote 5G-A commercial deployment, showcasing their technological advancements at global events [66].

通信行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 行业周报 · 通信行业 漫国 AI 算力增速高于预期,关注两会政策预期 2025年3月3日 数字经济新基建:ICT 相关标的天孚通信(300394),中际旭创(300308), 新易盛(300502)，光迅科技(002281)等;应用板块:卫星互联网华测导航 (300627) 等;看好算力网络基建+数据要素新空间的通信运营商：中国移动 (A+H),中国电信(A+H),中国联通(A+H)。 风险提示:AIGC 应用推广不及预期的风险;国内外政策和技术摩擦的不确定 ● 性风险;5G 规模化商用推进不及预期的风险等。 赵良毕 ☎：010-8092-7619 网: zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130522030003 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-03-02 相关研究 1. 【银河通信】行业周报_DeepSeek 催生 AI 需求, CPO 部署蓄势待发 2. 【银河通信】行业点评报告:运营商接入 DeepSeek,应用普及或超预期 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证 ...

Financial Data and Key Indicators Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,862.19, down 0.27% on the day and down 3.79% year-to-date [4][5] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,393.70, down 0.62% on the day and down 11.87% year-to-date [4][5] - The Northbound funds recorded a net sell of 77.65 billion, with a cumulative net sell of 17.43 billion year-to-date [6] Business Line Data and Key Indicators Changes - The mechanical sector benefits from cyclical recovery, while the power equipment sector benefits from electricity reforms [13] - The pharmaceutical sector is supported by policy catalysts and overseas interest [13] Market Data and Key Indicators Changes - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.17% to close at 17,090.23, with a year-to-date increase of 0.25% [4][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 563.1 billion [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The company focuses on traditional business stability while expanding into hydrogen and flexible power generation, aiming for growth in these areas [23] - The strategy includes leveraging high dividend yields and exploring new business opportunities to counteract declining ARPU values [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic factors are primarily responsible for revenue growth slowdown, with market competition also playing a role [17] - The outlook remains cautious due to potential risks in capital expenditure and the pace of 5G commercialization [17] Other Important Information - The CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year in July, driven by both food and non-food items, indicating inflationary pressures [19] - The company anticipates continued focus on high dividend-paying stocks and sectors with strong earnings growth potential [21] Q&A Session All Questions and Answers Question: What are the key risks facing the telecommunications sector? - The main risks include capital expenditures falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected progress in the 5G industry chain, and challenges in AI application deployment [17] Question: How does the company plan to address declining ARPU values? - The company aims to stimulate new demand through successful transformation and new business initiatives [17] Question: What is the outlook for the hydrogen energy sector? - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in the hydrogen sector, supported by its early investments and technological advancements [23]