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华创WEI指数上行至7%以上——每周经济观察第34期
一瑜中的· 2025-08-26 01:44
Group 1 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen above 7%, reaching 7.14% as of August 17, up from 6.52% the previous week, indicating a recovery in economic activity driven mainly by infrastructure and durable goods consumption [2][10][11] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 8% as of August 17, compared to a previous decline of 4% [2][15] - The land premium rate has rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, compared to 6.5% in July, indicating a positive trend in the real estate market [2][16] Group 2 - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 22.7% as of August 23, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July [4][29] - Prices of "anti-involution" commodities have weakened, with lithium carbonate experiencing the largest drop of 8.9% [4][45] - The U.S. and EU have reached an agreement on a trade framework, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods imported into the U.S., while certain natural resources and pharmaceuticals are exempt [4][29] Group 3 - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 3.26 trillion yuan issued, representing 74.2% of the planned issuance, which is faster than in 2020-2021 but slower than in 2022 [5][49] - The yields on government bonds have increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, reflecting a rise from the previous week [5][65] Group 4 - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities has increased by 2.2% year-on-year, reaching 81.08 million passengers in the first three weeks of August [2][15] - The construction-related indicators, such as asphalt operating rates and cement dispatch rates, have shown improvement compared to last year [2][19] - The overall industrial production remains stable, with coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port showing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [2][20]
每周经济观察第34期:华创WEI指数上行至7%以上-20250825
Huachuang Securities· 2025-08-25 03:15
Economic Indicators - The Huachuang WEI index rose to 7.14% as of August 17, 2025, up from 6.52% the previous week, marking an increase of 0.62 percentage points[1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 8% year-on-year as of August 17, 2025, compared to a previous decline of 4%[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, 2025, with a two-week average of 6%[1] Trade and Consumption - Container throughput at Chinese ports maintained a high level, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 5% as of August 17, 2025[1] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 22.7% year-on-year as of August 23, 2025, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July[2] - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August 2025[1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose to $3,373.6 per ounce, an increase of 1.1%, while U.S. oil prices reached $63.7 per barrel, up 1.4%[2] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 8.9%, marking the largest decline among "anti-involution" commodities[2] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance reached 3.26 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 74.2% as of August 25, 2025[3] - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, with increases of 1.59bps, 4.94bps, and 5.74bps compared to August 8, 2025[3]