Core Viewpoint - The Chinese lithium battery industry chain experienced an unexpected growth in the first half of 2025, with an overall growth rate exceeding 40% and a significant increase in battery shipments and storage segments [1][7]. Industry Growth - In the first half of 2025, the total shipment of lithium batteries reached 750-760 GWh, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60%-65%. The storage segment saw a remarkable quarter-on-quarter increase of over 80% and a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 110% [1][7]. - The demand for upstream materials has diversified, with shipments of lithium iron phosphate materials increasing by nearly 70% year-on-year, and key components such as anodes, separators, and electrolytes also showing strong growth [2][7]. Material Trends - The industry is shifting from traditional high-cost performance competition to a high-performance differentiation path, leading to a new ecosystem where various materials flourish [3][7]. - In the materials sector, the shipment of cathode materials reached 205-215 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 50%-55%. Lithium iron phosphate materials led the growth with a year-on-year increase of 65%-70% [7]. - The gross profit margins in the materials industry are showing signs of recovery, although some segments are experiencing differentiation in profitability [7]. Market Dynamics - The market concentration is on the rise, with top-tier companies gradually restoring their market power and profitability. A new round of capacity expansion for lithium iron phosphate and anode materials is expected [8]. - The price of lithium salts is projected to remain in the range of 60,000-80,000 yuan, with limited potential for further decline or increase [9]. Technological Innovations - New materials such as CVD silicon-carbon are being commercialized, with significant applications in digital lithium batteries and high-performance requirements [9][30]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards larger and more energy-efficient equipment, with advancements in various manufacturing processes [9][31]. Global Competition - The passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the delay of the new battery law in the U.S. have complex implications for the global competitiveness of Chinese companies [10]. - China has established a leading position in green low-carbon technologies, including photovoltaic, wind power, electric vehicles, and fuel cells, showcasing strong market share [26][27].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exhibition (CIBF) showcases over 3000 exhibitors, highlighting advancements in battery technology across the entire industry chain, focusing on eight core technological directions [2]. Group 1: Solid-State Batteries - Solid-state batteries are seen as the ultimate solution to energy density and safety challenges, with over 20 companies competing in this area, indicating a shift from sample demonstrations to large-scale production [4]. - Full solid-state batteries replace traditional electrolytes with solid electrolytes, significantly enhancing safety and energy density, with companies like Guoxuan High-Tech achieving energy densities of 300Wh/kg, a 20%-50% improvement over mainstream lithium batteries [5]. - CATL is advancing both oxide and sulfide solid-state battery technologies, with energy densities of 280Wh/kg and plans for mass production by 2026 [5][6]. Group 2: Sodium-Ion Batteries - Sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a low-cost alternative due to abundant sodium resources, with over 30 companies showcasing second-generation sodium battery technologies that achieve a 30% cost reduction and a 20% performance improvement [10]. - CATL's second-generation sodium-ion battery has an energy density of 160Wh/kg and costs below 0.4 yuan/Wh, with a cycle life exceeding 5000 times [11]. Group 3: Fast Charging and Smart Equipment - Fast charging technologies and smart manufacturing equipment are critical for addressing range anxiety in electric vehicles, with advancements leading to a "10-minute refueling era" [14]. - CATL's "Shenxing PLUS" battery supports a 10-minute charge for an additional 600km range, while BYD's upgraded blade battery achieves a 10-minute charge for 400km [16]. Group 4: Multi-Material Development - Material innovation remains a key theme, with breakthroughs in composite copper foils and new separator materials enhancing battery performance [20]. - Composite copper foils are being developed to improve safety and energy density, with companies like Putailai showcasing ultra-thin foils that reduce internal resistance by 15% [21]. Group 5: Full-Scene Applications - The battery technology landscape is expanding from single energy supply to full-scene energy coverage, with specialized batteries for commercial vehicles and eVTOLs [28]. - Commercial vehicle batteries are designed for high durability and efficiency, with companies like CATL and Ruipu showcasing batteries with cycle lives exceeding 8000 times [29]. Group 6: Lithium Metal Batteries - Lithium metal batteries are positioned as the next generation of high energy density technology, with companies focusing on suppressing lithium dendrite growth and enhancing interface stability [34]. - Multi-Flor's fluorine-based electrolyte technology improves cycle life to 500 cycles, while WeiLan's lithium metal battery achieves an energy density of 450Wh/kg [35]. Group 7: Battery Recycling Technology - Battery recycling is crucial for sustainable development, with companies showcasing technologies for high-value recovery of metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt [36]. - GreenMei's dual-mode recycling system achieves over 95% lithium recovery and 98% nickel-cobalt-manganese recovery, enhancing the efficiency of battery recycling processes [37]. Conclusion - The CIBF 2025 exhibition illustrates a transformative future for the battery industry, emphasizing high performance, low costs, and sustainable practices across various applications [39].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 天奈科技（688116） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：业绩符合预 期，单壁碳管放量在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,404 | 1,448 | 2,174 | 2,902 | 3,867 | | 同比（%） | (23.75) | 3.13 | 50.15 | 33.45 | 33.27 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 297.16 | 250.20 | 450.04 | 652.68 | 912.76 | | 同比（%） | (29.96) | (15.80) | 79.88 | 45.03 | 39.85 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.86 | 0.73 | 1.31 | 1.89 | 2.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 47.22 | 56.08 | 31.18 | 21.50 | 15.37 | [Table ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电池 天奈科技（688116） 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评：业绩符合预 期，单壁碳管放量在即 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,404 | 1,448 | 2,174 | 2,902 | 3,867 | | 同比（%） | (23.75) | 3.13 | 50.15 | 33.45 | 33.27 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 297.16 | 250.20 | 450.04 | 652.68 | 912.76 | | 同比（%） | (29.96) | (15.80) | 79.88 | 45.03 | 39.85 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.86 | 0.73 | 1.31 | 1.89 | 2.65 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 47.22 | 56.08 | 31.18 | 21.50 | 15.37 | [Table ...