Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal spot prices have stabilized after an increase in early November, with limited overall volatility expected. The outlook suggests a potential strong fluctuation in prices until the end of December due to cost support and easing inventory pressure [1][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply of raw soybeans is generally abundant, supporting high operational levels for upstream enterprises, leading to a relaxed supply of spot market goods. As of the first week of November, soybean meal inventory at national crushing enterprises was 963,000 tons, slightly down from the year's peak but still above levels from previous years [3]. - Upstream enterprises have stable production plans, although some face significant inventory pressure, leading to widespread cash flow demands that exert pressure on soybean meal spot prices [3]. - On the demand side, downstream enterprises are cautious in their willingness to take delivery of spot goods, primarily engaging in essential replenishment, resulting in overall weak performance. From November 10 to 13, the total transaction volume of soybean meal for future months reached 448,000 tons [3]. International Market Context - The international market is characterized by a strong production outlook for soybeans, which limits the upward potential for U.S. soybean futures. However, a tightening supply-demand balance year-on-year provides solid bottom support for soybean prices [5]. - In the domestic market, the 13% import tariff on U.S. soybeans restricts commercial buying, while South American soybeans are facing poor crushing margins, leading to a less optimistic outlook for the first quarter's raw material supply [5]. Price Outlook - Overall, the domestic spot market fundamentals remain stable in early November, with narrowed fluctuations in soybean meal prices. The expectation is for a slight upward trend in soybean meal prices until the end of December, with an average price range projected between 3,040 and 3,150 yuan per ton [5].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect U.S. soybean meal export net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year to range between 50,000 to 500,000 tons by the week ending October 23, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Data - On October 29, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide was 53,500 tons, a decrease of 59,900 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions also at 53,500 tons [1] - As of October 26, the EU's soybean meal import volume reached 5.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that the soybean import volume from May to September this year exceeded historical levels, leading to high domestic soybean inventory, which is pressuring spot prices. The expected import volume for the fourth quarter remains ample, contributing to this pressure. Despite the high inventory, the cost support for soybean meal limits downward movement, with uncertainties regarding U.S. soybean imports being a key factor for short-term market fluctuations [2] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that preliminary agreements from U.S.-China-Malaysia talks have led to a strong performance in U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean procurement for the near term is nearly complete, with sufficient inventory. The market is awaiting specific measures from upcoming high-level talks, with short-term soybean meal prices expected to follow U.S. soybean trends while maintaining a bottoming pattern in the medium to long term. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [3]

Core Insights - China has not imported any soybeans from the U.S. in September, marking the first time since November 2018 that imports dropped to zero [1] - The ongoing trade dispute between China and the U.S. has led Chinese buyers to avoid U.S. sources, significantly increasing soybean exports from South America [1][2] - China remains the world's largest soybean importer, with total imports reaching 86.18 million tons from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] Import Data - In September, China's soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, marking the second-highest monthly import on record [1] - Brazil's soybean exports to China surged by 29.9% year-on-year in September, totaling 10.96 million tons, while Argentina's exports increased by 91.5% to 1.17 million tons [1][2] - From January to September, China imported 63.70 million tons of soybeans from Brazil (up 2.4% year-on-year) and 2.90 million tons from Argentina (up 31.8% year-on-year) [2] Trade Relations - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges due to high tariffs and completed transactions of old crop soybeans, leading to a decline in imports from the U.S. [1][5] - The U.S. agricultural sector is under pressure, with farmers facing potential losses amounting to billions of dollars if trade negotiations do not yield results [2][4] - The U.S. soybean association indicates that China has historically been the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, with an expected import of approximately 27 million tons valued at nearly $12.8 billion in 2024 [5] Market Dynamics - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at Chinese ports has decreased by 56% year-on-year, from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [5] - U.S. farmers are attempting to find alternative markets in Southeast Asia, but they acknowledge the difficulty in replacing the Chinese market [6] - Long-term prospects for U.S. soybean exports to China appear bleak, as China questions the reliability of trade commitments from the Trump administration and pushes for self-sufficiency [6]