需求端来看，下游企业现货接货意愿较为谨慎，刚需滚动补库为主，部分头寸出现下滑，整体表现疲 软。中旬开始，部分大豆压榨集团积极推进销售12-3月为主的远月基差组合，华东、华南地区平水价格 成交，山东地区基差为20元／吨。市场中下游出于建立底仓、认可价格等原因成交情绪升温，11月10 日-13日全国豆粕远月成交总量为44.80万吨。 国际市场方面，国际大豆丰产主基调将令美豆期价上方空间有限，同比收紧的供需格局则为大豆价格提 供较为坚实的底部支撑。 11月上半月国内豆粕现货价格涨后趋稳，整体波动空间有限。展望后市，卓创资讯预计12月底前，在成 本支撑、库存压力缓解等因素影响下，豆粕现货价格或偏强震荡运行。 具体来看，进入11月，中国采购美豆的消息支撑美豆期价走强，成本端对国内豆粕现货价格形成利多影 响。随着后续中国对美豆采购跟进不足，美豆期价因中国需求落实不佳继续上涨乏力，走势震荡呈现， 对国内豆粕价格影响中性。卓创资讯数据统计显示，截至11月13日全国豆粕现货均价为3072元／吨，较 上月末上涨39元／吨，本月高低价差为15元／吨，波动空间较为有限。 从国内供需来看，原料大豆整体充裕，支撑上游企业开工保持较高水平 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect U.S. soybean meal export net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year to range between 50,000 to 500,000 tons by the week ending October 23, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Data - On October 29, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide was 53,500 tons, a decrease of 59,900 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions also at 53,500 tons [1] - As of October 26, the EU's soybean meal import volume reached 5.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that the soybean import volume from May to September this year exceeded historical levels, leading to high domestic soybean inventory, which is pressuring spot prices. The expected import volume for the fourth quarter remains ample, contributing to this pressure. Despite the high inventory, the cost support for soybean meal limits downward movement, with uncertainties regarding U.S. soybean imports being a key factor for short-term market fluctuations [2] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that preliminary agreements from U.S.-China-Malaysia talks have led to a strong performance in U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean procurement for the near term is nearly complete, with sufficient inventory. The market is awaiting specific measures from upcoming high-level talks, with short-term soybean meal prices expected to follow U.S. soybean trends while maintaining a bottoming pattern in the medium to long term. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [3]

Core Insights - China has not imported any soybeans from the U.S. in September, marking the first time since November 2018 that imports dropped to zero [1] - The ongoing trade dispute between China and the U.S. has led Chinese buyers to avoid U.S. sources, significantly increasing soybean exports from South America [1][2] - China remains the world's largest soybean importer, with total imports reaching 86.18 million tons from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] Import Data - In September, China's soybean imports reached 12.87 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, marking the second-highest monthly import on record [1] - Brazil's soybean exports to China surged by 29.9% year-on-year in September, totaling 10.96 million tons, while Argentina's exports increased by 91.5% to 1.17 million tons [1][2] - From January to September, China imported 63.70 million tons of soybeans from Brazil (up 2.4% year-on-year) and 2.90 million tons from Argentina (up 31.8% year-on-year) [2] Trade Relations - The U.S. soybean market is facing significant challenges due to high tariffs and completed transactions of old crop soybeans, leading to a decline in imports from the U.S. [1][5] - The U.S. agricultural sector is under pressure, with farmers facing potential losses amounting to billions of dollars if trade negotiations do not yield results [2][4] - The U.S. soybean association indicates that China has historically been the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans, with an expected import of approximately 27 million tons valued at nearly $12.8 billion in 2024 [5] Market Dynamics - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at Chinese ports has decreased by 56% year-on-year, from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [5] - U.S. farmers are attempting to find alternative markets in Southeast Asia, but they acknowledge the difficulty in replacing the Chinese market [6] - Long-term prospects for U.S. soybean exports to China appear bleak, as China questions the reliability of trade commitments from the Trump administration and pushes for self-sufficiency [6]