1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is mainly affected by macro - factors, with the US soybean market showing a relatively strong trend but having limited export growth space. South American prices are high but may face pressure in the medium - to - long - term. [27][55] - The domestic soybean meal shows a wide - range oscillation, with reduced concerns about supply shortages and possible inventory reduction. [56] - The domestic rapeseed meal is in a low - inventory state, with supply improvement and possible demand growth, but also facing certain price pressures. [60] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - US soybeans showed a strong upward trend this month, driven by potential export improvement and South American weather disturbances. [3] - Domestic soybean meal had a wide - range oscillation. It initially declined due to improved supply prospects and then strengthened with the sharp rise of US soybeans. Spot prices were gradually stabilizing. [3] - Domestic rapeseed meal oscillated. It had a large decline initially and then strengthened with the rise of soybean meal. Supply was improving. [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - US soybeans are strongly bullish, but there are many uncertainties. If exports do not improve and South American production does not decline significantly, the market may face pressure. [4] - Domestic soybean meal will continue to oscillate widely. If inventory reduction is not satisfactory, there may be pressure. [4] - Domestic rapeseed meal will also oscillate widely. If macro - improvement leads to increased imports, there may be pressure. [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, it is recommended to short soybean and rapeseed meal at high prices. - For arbitrage, expand the MRM spread. - For options, consider the seagull put option. [6] 3.2 Second Part: International Soybean Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side - US soybean inventory is expected to remain high. As of December 1, the carry - over inventory was 3.290076 billion bushels. New - crop planting area is expected to increase to 85 million acres in 2026, and inventory may slightly increase to 355 million bushels. [8][9] - Brazil's soybean production is high, with USDA increasing the forecast by about 2 million tons to 180 million tons. The harvest progress is slow, reaching 32.3% as of February 21. [12] - Argentina's old - crop pressure is moderate, with high prices. New - crop production may be affected by dry weather, with USDA estimating the output at 48.5 million tons. [13] 3.2.2 Demand Side - US soybean demand has improved. In January, the estimated crushing volume was 221.564 million bushels, with year - on - year growth. Export sales have improved but are still average. There are expectations for macro - driven export improvement, but US soybeans lack price competitiveness. [17] - Brazil's soybean crushing volume in January was high, supported by high international prices and domestic demand for biodiesel. February's export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. New - crop selling is slowing. [20] - Argentina's demand is weakening, with a decline in crushing and export volumes due to reduced supply and low profit margins. [23] 3.2.3 Comprehensive Analysis - The international soybean market is mainly affected by macro - factors. US soybeans are strong due to optimistic demand expectations, but export increase is limited. South American prices are high but may face pressure in the long - term. [27][28] 3.3 Third Part: Domestic Meal Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Supply Themes are Repeated and Transactions Slow Down - Market transactions have slowed down, with the average daily soybean meal transaction volume dropping to 77,800 tons. The spot basis has generally declined by about 50 yuan/ton. [31] - As of February 20, domestic soybean meal inventory decreased to 836,500 tons, and soybean inventory to 5.16 million tons. The estimated full - month soybean crushing volume is about 4.6 million tons, and the feed demand is stable. [33] 3.3.2 Supply Tightens and Soybean Meal Inventory Continues to Decline - In March, soybean arrivals are expected to decline, especially from Brazil. Soybean crushing may slightly increase, and demand may be affected by rapeseed meal supply improvement and active hog slaughter. However, overall inventory is still sufficient, and prices may face pressure. [38][40] 3.3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Supply Improves and Inventory Remains Low - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply has improved, with potential increases from Australia and Canada. As of February 20, rapeseed inventory was 38,000 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was about 6,000 tons. Imported rapeseed meal inventory is declining. Overall supply is sufficient, but prices are supported by the rise of soybean meal and high international rapeseed prices. [41][44] 3.4 Fourth Part: Comprehensive Analysis and Future Outlook 3.4.1 Comprehensive Analysis - International soybeans: The market is mainly affected by macro - factors. US soybean export improvement is uncertain, and South American prices may face pressure. [55] - Domestic soybean meal: It oscillates widely, with reduced supply concerns and possible inventory reduction. [56] - Domestic rapeseed meal: It is in a low - inventory state, with improving supply and potential demand growth, but also facing price pressures. [60] 3.4.2 Strategy Analysis - For single - side trading, short soybean and rapeseed meal at high prices. - For arbitrage, expand the MRM spread. - For options, consider the seagull put option. [62]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in Q1 2026, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets [1][18]. - The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index is due to rising geopolitical risks after the US's actions in Venezuela [3][12][13]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued, while the bond market may still face downward pressure after a rapid rise [19][22]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, palm oil may face supply pressure, and copper prices are mainly affected by macro factors [24][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The arrest of the Venezuelan president by the US has increased geopolitical tensions, but the impact on the financial market is expected to be limited. Short - term precious metals may face correction risks [10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US's actions in Venezuela have raised geopolitical risks, causing the US dollar index to strengthen in the short term. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [3][12][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US air strike on Venezuela may cause short - term market risk aversion, but the market risk appetite is expected to improve. US stocks are expected to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [15][16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets. The long - position strategy for stock indices should be continued [18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The new fee rate regulations are short - term positive for the bond market, but cannot reverse the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices [2][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In December 2025, Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased, and the inventory may exceed 3 million tons. It is advisable to wait for India's increased purchases and consider going long at low levels [23][24][25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CBOT soybeans declined due to poor export prospects. Domestic soybean crushing is expected to decrease in January. Soybean meal is expected to decline with CBOT soybean futures prices [28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 2025/26. The sugar price may be sensitive to weather and production changes. Pay attention to the actual stocking and sales progress [30][32][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton export demand is weak, and the Indian import tariff exemption has expired. The external market is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Be wary of the risk of a decline in Zhengzhou cotton [38][39]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of market contradictions [44][45]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on December 31, 2025. The demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the coal mine's production in January [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Samarco mine expansion project was suspended. The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the steel mills' raw material replenishment after January [47][48]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors have a great impact on copper prices. Fundamentally, short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to buy at low prices [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's supply contraction expectation is being realized. Unilaterally, it is advisable to consider going long at low levels. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There may be short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the medium term [58][59][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon enterprises have raised spot quotes. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels, but investors should hold positions carefully [60][61]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production reduction scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in 2026. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [63][64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand contradictions of tin are alleviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the withdrawal of funds [68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fundamental contradictions of lead are marginally alleviated. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach both unilaterally and in terms of arbitrage [69][70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The short - term fundamentals of zinc have no obvious contradictions. Unilaterally, wait for the opportunity to take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [71][72][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The short - term risk premium of crude oil prices may rise moderately, and the long - term supply growth depends on US investment [75][76].

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's December supply and demand report presents neutral data, with minor adjustments to the U.S. soybean balance sheets for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, leading to continued price declines due to poor export prospects [3][8]. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand - The 2024/25 U.S. soybean balance sheet shows a slight adjustment with imports reduced from 29 million bushels to 27 million bushels, exports down from 1,882 million bushels to 1,875 million bushels, and residuals increased from 32 million bushels to 37 million bushels, keeping ending stocks unchanged at 316 million bushels [3][8]. - The 2025/26 balance sheet remains unchanged, with ending stocks at 290 million bushels, slightly below market expectations of 300 million bushels [3][8]. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazil's 2025/26 balance sheet maintains production at 175 million tons, with imports adjusted from 350,000 tons to 500,000 tons and ending stocks increased from 36.36 million tons to 36.51 million tons [4][9]. - Argentina's balance sheets for both 2024/25 and 2025/26 show minimal adjustments, with the 2025/26 ending stocks slightly reduced from 22.85 million tons to 22.84 million tons [4][9]. Global Soybean Supply and Demand - The global soybean production for 2025/26 is revised up from 421.75 million tons to 422.54 million tons, with ending stocks increased from 121.99 million tons to 122.37 million tons [10]. Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The report indicates that there are no significant data changes from North and South America that would impact market prices, with stable Chinese soybean purchases leading to a lack of rapid increases in U.S. soybean exports [5][12]. - The expectation is for a weak medium to long-term outlook for CBOT soybeans, with potential price support only arising from adverse weather in Brazil or increased Chinese purchases [5][12]. - Domestic supply remains ample, and the impact of recent reserve auctions has been significant, suggesting that shortages are unlikely in the near term [5][12].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect U.S. soybean meal export net sales for the 2025/26 marketing year to range between 50,000 to 500,000 tons by the week ending October 23, 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Data - On October 29, the total soybean meal transaction volume at major oil mills nationwide was 53,500 tons, a decrease of 59,900 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions also at 53,500 tons [1] - As of October 26, the EU's soybean meal import volume reached 5.68 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guodu Futures notes that the soybean import volume from May to September this year exceeded historical levels, leading to high domestic soybean inventory, which is pressuring spot prices. The expected import volume for the fourth quarter remains ample, contributing to this pressure. Despite the high inventory, the cost support for soybean meal limits downward movement, with uncertainties regarding U.S. soybean imports being a key factor for short-term market fluctuations [2] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that preliminary agreements from U.S.-China-Malaysia talks have led to a strong performance in U.S. soybeans. Domestic soybean procurement for the near term is nearly complete, with sufficient inventory. The market is awaiting specific measures from upcoming high-level talks, with short-term soybean meal prices expected to follow U.S. soybean trends while maintaining a bottoming pattern in the medium to long term. The recommendation is to remain cautious for now [3]