Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the surge in the precious metals market during the National Day holiday, driven by uncertainties in U.S. government operations and economic data, leading to increased investment in safe-haven assets [1][2][3] - Gold prices have reached new historical highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4000 and RMB gold prices exceeding 900 yuan per gram, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which has further impacted market confidence and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, including China's restrictions on rare earth exports and Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, has heightened market risk aversion [2] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by both risk aversion and monetary easing, has led to increased allocations to gold, as investors seek to capitalize on favorable conditions [2] - The mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts reflect ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, with some advocating for caution while others support further easing [3]

上周（8．18~8．22）黄金市场大部分时段延续震荡表现，鲍威尔在央行年会终于松口释放降息预 期，黄金交投情绪得到改善。国内投资者在权益市场向好背景下继续兑现黄金收益。 市场观点方面，过往一周（8．18~8．22）黄金市场大部分时段延续震荡表现，周五鲍威尔在央行年 会终于松口释放降息预期，黄金交投情绪得到改善。鲍威尔谈到：劳动力供给和需求双双显著放缓所 导致的奇怪的平衡状态，这表明，就业的下行风险正在上升。而如果这些风险成为现实，它们可能以 裁员急剧增加和失业率上升的形式迅速显现。基线前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要调整政策立 场。而对于关税政策引发的通胀，鲍威尔也调整了其表述口径，称其通胀效应不太可能是持久的，也 不太会导致通胀预期上行，这与之前持续的将通胀风险放在就业之前的鹰派言论有明显区别，基本意 味着9月开始的降息路径上已经不存在障碍。受此影响，国际金价交易情绪明显改善，上周五单日涨 幅超1%。 正如我们在之前的市场追踪中所提到的，货币政策变化所带来的边际流动性改善已经是现阶段支持金 价的主要因素，黄金的基本面环境较二季度边际改善。不过在整体风险偏好趋强的背景下，黄金作为 避险资产能否重拾上升动能仍具 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market experienced fluctuations due to the Federal Reserve's personnel changes and disappointing non-farm employment data, which raised expectations for future monetary easing [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with revisions to previous months indicating a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [3] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, reaching 1,249 tons, with a substantial 45% increase in value to $132 billion, driven primarily by strong investment demand [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting showed a division among board members regarding interest rate decisions, with two members voting against the rate decision for the first time since 1993, indicating increasing political influence on monetary policy [2] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler on August 1 further fueled market speculation about potential personnel changes at the Fed, which could impact future monetary policy [4] - The overall uncertainty in the market is expected to shift from tariff negotiations to expectations of a rate cut cycle, which may become a significant factor influencing gold prices in the near future [3]

Group 1 - The international gold market reached a new historical record of $3,500 last week, followed by a significant pullback due to Trump's easing of tariff rhetoric [1] - Domestic investors have been the main source of incremental funds in the market since April, continuing to show a rapid influx [1] - The gold market experienced the largest volatility of the year during the week of April 21-25, with Asian buying contributing approximately 70% of the price increase since April [1] Group 2 - On April 22, the total trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 1 trillion RMB, and the daily trading volume of domestic gold ETFs increased by over 300% compared to the average of the past month [1] - Trump's administration has been signaling a reduction in tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, which has alleviated market concerns and led to a rebound in the dollar index and U.S. stocks [1][2] - The net long positions of COMEX gold futures managers have dropped to the lowest level in 13 months, indicating a willingness to take profits in the overheated gold market [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking a leading role in tariff negotiations, with expectations of a potential recovery in market risk appetite, while gold may continue to adjust from its previous aggressive performance [2] - The macroeconomic logic for gold remains unchanged in the medium to long term, with upcoming corporate debt maturities and the lifting of the debt ceiling potentially causing further market volatility [2] - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with a way to invest in gold through Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for a broader audience [2]