Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the surge in the precious metals market during the National Day holiday, driven by uncertainties in U.S. government operations and economic data, leading to increased investment in safe-haven assets [1][2][3] - Gold prices have reached new historical highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4000 and RMB gold prices exceeding 900 yuan per gram, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, which has further impacted market confidence and reinforced expectations for potential interest rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - The escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions, including China's restrictions on rare earth exports and Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, has heightened market risk aversion [2] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by both risk aversion and monetary easing, has led to increased allocations to gold, as investors seek to capitalize on favorable conditions [2] - The mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts reflect ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook, with some advocating for caution while others support further easing [3]

上周（9月15日-19日）黄金市场受到美联储鹰派表态影响，价格呈现冲高回落走势。但在美国临时支 出法案受阻的背景下，避险情绪依然加持贵金属市场，整体调整幅度较为有限。 市场观点方面，过往一周（9．15~9．19）黄金资产在相对偏鹰派的美联储利率声明中冲高回落。美 联储如期降息25bps，市场选择首先交易2025年点阵图更鸽派的指引（年内剩余50BP的降息空间）， 随后交易2026年更鹰派的指引（2026年仅一次降息25BP）和发布会上鲍威尔偏鹰派的表态，这是黄金 周内冲高回落的主要原因。但未来美联储或将迎来从数据依赖到政治裹挟的重塑，米兰所代表的特朗 普意愿仍指向明年125BP的降息预期，联储压缩明年降息路径或也受到周内公布的强劲零售数据影 响，未来相关理事能否持续保持数据依赖的独立性需持续跟踪。 此外上周共和党与民主党临时支出法案均未能通过参议院投票。由于现存的支出法案仅能维持政府运 转到9月底，因此若未来两党不能尽快就支出内容达成一致，则联邦政府10月1日停摆的风险将大幅升 温，届时政治环境不确定性的风险或再度加剧市场波动，这也使得周内的黄金调整幅度较为有限，很 快再次获得避险买盘。从海外ETF和COME ...

上周（8．18~8．22）黄金市场大部分时段延续震荡表现，鲍威尔在央行年会终于松口释放降息预 期，黄金交投情绪得到改善。国内投资者在权益市场向好背景下继续兑现黄金收益。 市场观点方面，过往一周（8．18~8．22）黄金市场大部分时段延续震荡表现，周五鲍威尔在央行年 会终于松口释放降息预期，黄金交投情绪得到改善。鲍威尔谈到：劳动力供给和需求双双显著放缓所 导致的奇怪的平衡状态，这表明，就业的下行风险正在上升。而如果这些风险成为现实，它们可能以 裁员急剧增加和失业率上升的形式迅速显现。基线前景和不断变化的风险平衡可能需要调整政策立 场。而对于关税政策引发的通胀，鲍威尔也调整了其表述口径，称其通胀效应不太可能是持久的，也 不太会导致通胀预期上行，这与之前持续的将通胀风险放在就业之前的鹰派言论有明显区别，基本意 味着9月开始的降息路径上已经不存在障碍。受此影响，国际金价交易情绪明显改善，上周五单日涨 幅超1%。 正如我们在之前的市场追踪中所提到的，货币政策变化所带来的边际流动性改善已经是现阶段支持金 价的主要因素，黄金的基本面环境较二季度边际改善。不过在整体风险偏好趋强的背景下，黄金作为 避险资产能否重拾上升动能仍具 ...

上周（8.11~8.15）黄金市场再次于3400美元区域遇阻回落，因7月PPI数据显著超出预期。特朗普与普京 的会晤提升了俄乌冲突走向终结的可能性。国内投资者在权益市场向好背景下继续兑现黄金收益。 市场观点方面，过往一周随着美国官宣不会对黄金加征关税后，伦敦金和纽约金价差迅速收敛，并导致 全球金价走弱，市场回归到基本面数据交易。美国7月CPI同比2.7%持平前值，预期2.8%，环比0.2%符 合预期，核心CPI同比从2.9%反弹至3.1%，预期3%，环比0.3%符合预期，核心通胀受到服务成本上涨 的支撑，玩具等进口商品已经开始体现关税带来的价格上涨压力。上周四公布的PPI数据给火热的降息 预期浇了一盆冷水，7月PPI同比从2.4%反弹至3.3%，环比从0增加至0.9%，显著超预期，服务成本快速 上涨推动PPI走高，同时能源价格也出现反弹，关税落地后，美国通胀存在继续上行的空间，8月密歇根 大学一年期和五至十年期通胀预期再度反弹至4.9%和3.9%，货币政策进入进退维谷局面。 不过周内财长贝森特表示9月可以开始大幅降息且总降息幅度应在150BP以上。注意到美国财政部长通 常不愿就美联储利率做出具体决定，贝森特几 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the gold market experienced fluctuations due to the Federal Reserve's personnel changes and disappointing non-farm employment data, which raised expectations for future monetary easing [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for July showed an increase of 73,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with revisions to previous months indicating a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [3] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, reaching 1,249 tons, with a substantial 45% increase in value to $132 billion, driven primarily by strong investment demand [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting showed a division among board members regarding interest rate decisions, with two members voting against the rate decision for the first time since 1993, indicating increasing political influence on monetary policy [2] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler on August 1 further fueled market speculation about potential personnel changes at the Fed, which could impact future monetary policy [4] - The overall uncertainty in the market is expected to shift from tariff negotiations to expectations of a rate cut cycle, which may become a significant factor influencing gold prices in the near future [3]

Group 1 - The international gold market reached a new historical record of $3,500 last week, followed by a significant pullback due to Trump's easing of tariff rhetoric [1] - Domestic investors have been the main source of incremental funds in the market since April, continuing to show a rapid influx [1] - The gold market experienced the largest volatility of the year during the week of April 21-25, with Asian buying contributing approximately 70% of the price increase since April [1] Group 2 - On April 22, the total trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange approached 1 trillion RMB, and the daily trading volume of domestic gold ETFs increased by over 300% compared to the average of the past month [1] - Trump's administration has been signaling a reduction in tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, which has alleviated market concerns and led to a rebound in the dollar index and U.S. stocks [1][2] - The net long positions of COMEX gold futures managers have dropped to the lowest level in 13 months, indicating a willingness to take profits in the overheated gold market [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is taking a leading role in tariff negotiations, with expectations of a potential recovery in market risk appetite, while gold may continue to adjust from its previous aggressive performance [2] - The macroeconomic logic for gold remains unchanged in the medium to long term, with upcoming corporate debt maturities and the lifting of the debt ceiling potentially causing further market volatility [2] - The BoShi Gold ETF and its linked funds provide investors with a way to invest in gold through Shanghai Gold Exchange contracts, enhancing investment options for a broader audience [2]