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黄金短期或维持宽幅震荡的格局,长期向上的逻辑依然清晰
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 03:43
Group 1: Gold ETF Performance - As of July 10, the Gold ETF (159937) increased by 0.73% with a turnover rate of 0.65% and a transaction amount of 184 million yuan [1] - The Gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 87.7045 million yuan, totaling 185 million yuan and an average daily net inflow of 46.2391 million yuan [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Federal Reserve Policy - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July have cooled significantly, with the two-year Treasury yield rising over the past week [2] - The expectation for a rate cut in July has decreased to about 4 basis points, with an annual cumulative rate cut expectation of 63 basis points, slightly down from the end of June [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need to understand the impact of tariffs on inflation before making any rate cuts, ignoring calls for immediate significant cuts [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Situation and Central Bank Actions - The geopolitical situation has recently cooled, with a low probability of further escalation in the short term [3] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves, reaching 73.9 million ounces as of June 2025, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies and Long-term Outlook - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have shifted to outflows since June 30, but overall holdings remain higher than early June levels [4] - Analysts suggest that while the delay in rate cut expectations and easing geopolitical risks may lead to a weaker short-term gold price, the long-term upward trend remains clear due to ongoing global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [4][6] - Investment strategies recommend accumulating gold positions during market dips, focusing on geopolitical risks and inflation hedging [6] Group 5: Technical Analysis and Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategies suggest investors should accumulate gold gradually based on technical signals, while maintaining a long-term allocation to gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [6] - The Gold ETF (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [6]
黄金回调机会备受关注,降息预期为核心变量
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-09 03:48
Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices testing resistance levels and showing potential for further declines due to a rebound in the US dollar index and changing Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of July 9, international spot gold has fallen below $3,300 per ounce, currently trading at $3,287.75 per ounce, down 0.39% [1]. - The COMEX gold is trading at $3,299 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.54% [1]. - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, which have shifted due to recent employment data and economic policies [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1% [7]. - The "Great Beautiful" fiscal plan signed by President Trump is expected to increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, which may have short-term positive effects on the economy but could exacerbate long-term debt burdens [7][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing trade negotiations and tariff agreements between the US and countries like Vietnam and Cambodia are contributing to market uncertainty, which may support gold prices as a hedge against currency risk [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their potential impact on the economy remains a significant factor influencing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][8]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold ETFs and related funds are highlighted as accessible investment vehicles, offering low costs and diverse trading options, which may attract investors looking to hedge against economic volatility [11]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic downturns is emphasized, suggesting that investors may consider regular investments in gold ETFs [11].
美联储降息预期降温,黄金回落
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 03:38
Group 1 - The strong U.S. employment data has diminished market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a significant rise in the dollar index and a decline in spot gold prices [1][2] - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February [1][2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in July is now considered nearly zero, with a 75% probability for a cut in September, indicating a resilient labor market [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that geopolitical factors will support gold prices in the long term, despite a decrease in rate cut expectations [3] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves due to rising dollar credit risks and strategic asset allocation needs [3] - The performance of gold assets remains strong during both overheating and recessionary economic cycles, making gold ETFs a viable investment option [3][5] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a decline of 0.8% on July 4, with a trading volume of 239 million yuan, but has seen a 4.08% increase over the past month [5] - The net inflow of funds into the gold ETF over the last five days was 447 million yuan, indicating continued investor interest [5]
现金买黄金超10万将需上报,黄金回调配置机备受市场关注
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 04:07
7月3日(周四),黄金ETF基金(159937)上涨0.52%,盘中换手率1%,成交金额2.84亿元。拉长时间看,截至2025年7月2日,黄金ETF基金(159937)近 3月累计上涨4.98%。 | 多周期 设置 画线 | | 除权 窗 区 信息 删自选 ◎ | | 黄金ETF基金 159937 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 425 MA30: 7.418 MA60: 7.398 | | 8.140 | | | | | | 8.010 | | | 7.416 +0.038 +0.515% | | | | | 7.853 | 载化 | +2.06% | 548 | | | | | 5 | 7.420 | 1208 | | | | | | 7.419 | 1373 | | | | 7.561 | 3 | 7.418 | 2301 | | | | | 盛 2 | 7.417 | 7584 | | | | 7.274 | 1 | | | | | | | | 7.416 | 564 | | | | | 1 | 7.415 | 6105 | | | | 6.98 ...
央行连续第七个月增持黄金,黄金ETF基金(159937)成交额超3.8亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-09 05:24
数据显示,杠杆资金持续布局中。黄金ETF基金最新融资买入额达753.79万元,最新融资余额达37.34亿 元。 截至6月6日,黄金ETF基金近5年净值上涨95.50%,居可比基金前2,贵金属基金排名4/21,居于前 19.05%。从收益能力看,截至2025年6月6日,黄金ETF基金自成立以来,最高单月回报为10.62%,最长 连涨月数为6个月,最长连涨涨幅为16.53%,涨跌月数比为72/57,上涨月份平均收益率为3.27%,年盈 利百分比为80.00%,历史持有3年盈利概率为100.00%。 截至2025年6月6日,黄金ETF基金近1年夏普比率为2.50。 回撤方面,截至2025年6月6日,黄金ETF基金今年以来相对基准回撤0.35%。 截至2025年6月9日 13:02,黄金ETF基金(159937)下跌1.47%,最新报价7.36元,成交3.82亿元。 6月7日,国家外汇管理局统计数据显示,截至今年5月末,我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元,较4月末 上升36亿美元,升幅为0.11%。其中黄金储备规模为2420亿美元,占外储总规模比重为7.37%,相比上 月小幅下降0.06个百分点。 浙商证券指出,5月 ...
机构:本轮黄金牛市的周期可能会很长,黄金ETF基金(159937)连续4天净流入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 03:17
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the long-term and continuous purchasing behavior of global central banks towards gold reflects a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [2] - The recent performance of the gold ETF fund shows a net inflow of funds totaling 1.25 billion yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The gold ETF fund has achieved a 95.39% increase in net value over the past five years, ranking it among the top funds in its category [3] Group 2 - The gold ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, which are competitive within the industry [3] - The fund's performance metrics include a maximum monthly return of 10.62% and a historical holding period profitability probability of 100% over three years [3] - Leverage funds are actively investing in the gold ETF, with the latest margin buying amounting to 27.57 million yuan and a margin balance of 3.736 billion yuan [2]
机构:黄金价格有望持续向上突破,黄金ETF基金(159937)连续5天净流入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-14 05:26
截至2025年5月14日 13:06,黄金ETF基金(159937)下跌0.81%,最新报价7.26元。流动性方面,黄金ETF基金盘中换手1.56%,成交4.50亿元。拉长时间看,截 至5月13日,黄金ETF基金近1月日均成交13.68亿元,排名可比基金前3。 从资金净流入方面来看,黄金ETF基金近5天获得连续资金净流入,最高单日获得1.76亿元净流入,合计"吸金"3.88亿元,日均净流入达7753.13万元。 数据显示,杠杆资金持续布局中。黄金ETF基金最新融资买入额达1715.58万元,最新融资余额达37.06亿元。 截至5月13日,黄金ETF基金近5年净值上涨94.89%,居可比基金前2。从收益能力看,截至2025年5月13日,黄金ETF基金自成立以来,最高单月回报为 10.62%,最长连涨月数为6个月,最长连涨涨幅为16.53%,涨跌月数比为72/56,上涨月份平均收益率为3.27%,年盈利百分比为80.00%,历史持有3年盈利 概率为100.00%。 截至2025年5月9日,黄金ETF基金近1年夏普比率为2.92。 回撤方面,截至2025年5月13日,黄金ETF基金今年以来最大回撤8.14%,相对基 ...
国际金价持续震荡,黄金ETF基金(159937)成交额超6亿元,连续4天净流入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 03:47
随着中美经贸会谈取得超预期的积极成果,避险情绪逐步消退,市场乐观情绪被点燃,国际金价也因此持续震荡。截至2025年5月13日 11:27,国际金价盘中 一度跌破3220美元/盎司关口, 从资金净流入方面来看,黄金ETF基金近4天获得连续资金净流入,最高单日获得1.76亿元净流入,合计"吸金"3.57亿元,日均净流入达8928.63万元。 数据显示,杠杆资金持续布局中。黄金ETF基金连续4天获杠杆资金净买入,最高单日获得2018.16万元净买入,最新融资余额达37.76亿元。 截至5月12日,黄金ETF基金近5年净值上涨93.71%,居可比基金前2。从收益能力看,截至2025年5月12日,黄金ETF基金自成立以来,最高单月回报为 10.62%,最长连涨月数为6个月,最长连涨涨幅为16.53%,涨跌月数比为72/56,上涨月份平均收益率为3.27%,年盈利百分比为80.00%,历史持有3年盈利 概率为100.00%。 截至2025年5月9日,黄金ETF基金近1年夏普比率为2.92。 回撤方面,截至2025年5月12日,黄金ETF基金今年以来最大回撤8.14%,相对基准回撤0.30%。 ETF方面,黄金ETF基金( ...
博时基金王祥:国际金价波动加剧,贸易战走向扰动市场风险偏好
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-07 07:37
上周(4月28日-5月2日)国际黄金市场波动加剧,贸易战走向扰动市场风险偏好并对金价构成剧烈影 响。亚洲时段的动能加持有所削弱,无论是期货市场还是ETF均呈现边际流出。 市场观点方面,五一假期前后(4.28~5.5)黄金市场呈现了先抑后扬的V型走势,在关税变局的影响 下,市场风险偏好大幅变动,也带动黄金波幅明显放大。 经历4月的快速拉涨后,黄金价格需要时间来进行消化整理,而近期逆风因素开始显现,关税博弈中特 朗普政府不断释放缓和信号,以及美国4月制造业PMI、非农就业数据小幅超预期,风险偏好的回升及 降息预期的回落短期压制金价表现。同时,亚洲区的获利了结资金也同步出现,时段内引领涨势的情况 不再,期货持仓一周内降幅近10%,国内各黄金ETF持仓也在呈现边际流出。 部分避险资金再次回到黄金市场 进入五一假日后段,国际金价于3200美元附近企稳,并快速回升至3300美元上方。前半段假日内引领风 险偏好回升的因素包括美国和乌克兰达成资源开发和重建协议;特朗普政府宣称将与韩国、日本和印度 有潜在的贸易协议,以及重要的与中国方面的接洽开始发生。但这一切在5月5日发生了戏剧性的转变, 首先是日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等 ...
博时基金王祥:短期黄金市场呈现明显过热局面
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-04-29 10:09
目前美国财政部长贝森特在整体关税谈判中占据主导地位,相较于纳瓦罗,这位华尔街前基金经理对于 经济与市场反应的理解更为深刻,也更注重实际数据和风险情绪管理,预期在接下来的一段时间内,市 场整体的风险偏好或有继续回暖的可能,黄金则有望继续消化前期过于激进的短期表现。 不过,中长期角度来看,黄金的宏观逻辑并未发生变化,短期更多是超涨后的自然调整。后续美国企业 债到期高峰与债务上限解除后,发债压力的释放都可能引发金融市场的再次动荡,黄金的整体对冲功能 凸显。 上周市场动态方面,特朗普释放缓和信息安抚市场。美国总统特朗普22日表示,无意解雇美联储主席鲍 威尔,特朗普还表示,对中国进口商品的关税将从目前的145%"大幅"下降。言论不但安抚投资者、鼓 舞风险资产,也打击了黄金。 博时黄金ETF基金(159937)及联接基金(002610,002611)通过投资于上海黄金交易所的黄金现货合 约跟踪人民币黄金价格表现。投资者可在博时基金APP、博时基金官网等官方渠道购买联接基金,最低 1元起买(具体以各渠道公告为准),该基金进一步丰富了广大投资者对黄金的投资方式。 上周国际黄金市场刷新了3500美元的最新历史记录。随后伴随特朗 ...