商业航天：太空光伏专题汇报 20260122 摘要 太空算力是商业航天发展的新引擎，推动卫星需求从百千颗量级跃升至 万颗以上，StarCloud 和中国三体计算星座等项目积极部署太空数据中 心，预示着商业航天的巨大成长空间。 卫星太阳翼正朝着更大面积发展，如马斯克 V3 版本太阳翼面积可能达 到 400 平米，是 V1 版本的 20 倍。太阳翼价值量占卫星整体的 12%- 24%，未来占比或将提升，全柔性方案因其体积小、功率高成为发展趋 势。 中美在太阳翼技术路线上存在差异，美国倾向于成本较低的金龟方案， 而中国更注重电池性能，选择成本较高的生化镓。中国在钙钛矿电池产 业化方面领先，但仍处于测试阶段，未来或根据火箭运力调整方案。 钙钛矿电池在商业航天领域具有显著的成本和性能优势，预计成本可降 至每平方米 3-5 万元人民币，比功率高达 20 瓦/克，远超砷化镓和晶硅 电池，上海港湾旗下福吉星空已在 2024 年进行在轨验证。 中国卫星太阳翼系统采用总体院加分系统的配套体系，航天八院 811 所 和中电科 18 所占据过半市场份额，商业公司如上海港湾等也参与其中， 上海港湾是唯一一家上市公司，拥有长期在轨验证经 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the space photovoltaic industry, particularly satellite solar wings and space power stations, which are expected to open up significant growth opportunities [1] - Satellite solar wings are identified as the core energy system for satellites, ensuring power supply [1] Key Insights and Arguments - The growth of the satellite industry is linked to an increase in the number of satellites and the area of solar wings, making solar wings a critical component in commercial space ventures [1] - Elon Musk has shifted from using relatively mature and inexpensive crystalline silicon solutions to more advanced P-type HJT (Heterojunction Technology) batteries that are radiation-resistant, lightweight, and more adaptable [1] - Musk plans to deploy 100GW of solar-powered AI satellites annually, indicating a vast market potential [1] - Space solar power stations are anticipated to create additional growth opportunities, as they can bypass atmospheric interference and achieve high-efficiency solar energy generation [1] - Countries like the United States, China (with the Daily Project), and Japan have initiated space photovoltaic power station plans, which are expected to further stimulate demand in the space photovoltaic sector [1] Additional Important Points - Recommendations for investment focus on specific companies: - **Maiwei Co., Ltd.**: Recognized as the first domestic equipment manufacturer contacted by SpaceX, specializing in customized HJT equipment for space photovoltaics, with expectations for large-scale supply [2] - **Yujing Co., Ltd.**: Concentrates on crystalline silicon and UTG (Ultra-Thin Glass) glass slicing, currently undergoing factory audits by SpaceX [2]

Core Insights - The number of unicorn companies in China has reached 409, accounting for nearly 30% of the global total, ranking second worldwide [1] - The growth of unicorn companies is fundamentally a competition of innovation efficiency, shifting from "model replication" to "technological breakthroughs" [1][2] - The transition in innovation requires stronger technical capabilities and entails greater risks [1] Group 1: Quality vs Quantity - There exists a disparity where "quantity does not equal quality," as advancements in fields like photovoltaic glass require overcoming numerous technical challenges [2] - The second disparity is "growth does not equal endurance," highlighting that efficiency improvements must translate into sustained innovation capabilities [2] Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - Government policies, such as Beijing's "service steward" and Hangzhou's "computing power vouchers," are fostering innovation by providing targeted support [2] - The best support for companies is not perpetual funding but rather enabling them to develop self-sustaining capabilities [2] Group 3: Global Perspective - The figure of 409 serves as both an achievement and a challenge, as historical patterns suggest that rapid growth can lead to equally rapid decline [3] - The true competition lies not in rankings but in converting laboratory patents into high production yields and transforming government subsidies into self-sustaining R&D investments [3] - As global innovation enters a "hardcore era," China needs not just more unicorns but also "new species" that can withstand economic cycles and define future rules [3]