自特朗普政府今年1月重返白宫以来，中美两国在技术、港口、稀土矿产和关税等领域的贸易关系经历 了崩溃、部分复苏又再度急剧恶化的过程。 最新公布的一项调查显示，超过半数美国人认为美国应与中国合作并保持接触，这一比例较2024年的 40%大幅上升。这是自2019年以来，首次有过半数受访美国人表示更倾向于采取"友好"合作与接触的对 华政策。 在这个过程中，美国各行各业都遭到了前所未有的"经济反噬"。以美国农业为例，由于特朗普宣布对中 国进口商品加征高额关税，导致中国不得不作出强力反击，于今年5月开始停止进口美国大豆，这让当 地无数农场被迫裁员减产。与此同时，中国通过多元化进口策略，成功将大豆进口来源从美国转向巴 西、阿根廷等国。 不仅如此，芝加哥全球事务委员会发布的调查结果还显示，多数美国人反对提高中国进口商品关税。这 一结果折射出美国对华关税政策正陷入前所未有的战略困局——尽管特朗普政府一直坚定征收关税，但 这场持续贸易战反而让美国付出了沉重代价。 在这一系列遏制美国经济的政策冲击下，美国消费者信心指数10月降至六个月低点。据报道称，消费者 对美国政治的提及显著增加。 而在以上调查结果公布之际，中美两国即将在于韩国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule is increasing, and it is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9075 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Overall, the demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53655 - 55345 [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The demand was 98,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory at 254,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components profitable. The organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, with a production profit of -454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05%, which was flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,300 tons, and the import loss was 276 yuan/ton. The cost support in the dry season has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease. The main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6][15]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The expected production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, but currently in a loss state. The battery cell production was in a loss state, and the component production was profitable. The average cost of N-type polysilicon was 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of N-type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.84%. Spot prices of different types of silicon remained unchanged. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.53%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.18%. The main port inventory increased by 2.50%. The weekly sample enterprise production increased by 3.36%, and the production and operating rates in different regions showed different changes [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 3.09% to 5.54%. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The monthly supply of polysilicon in China decreased by 1.29%, the export volume decreased by 30.00%, the consumption volume increased by 6.62%, and the import volume increased by 30.00%. The component production was profitable, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19][20]. - The price and basis of polysilicon also showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and at ports showed different trends over time [25][26]. - The polysilicon inventory also showed different trends over time [17]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises in different regions and the overall production showed different trends over time [29][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also showed different trends over time [31]. 3.6 Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang's oxygenated 553 silicon showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [38][39]. - The monthly supply - demand balance also showed different trends over time, with different values for actual consumption, export, import, and other items [41][42]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with different values for consumption, export, import, and supply [67][68]. 3.8 Downstream Market Trends 3.8.1 Organic Silicon - The production capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC in organic silicon showed different trends over time [44][45]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also showed different trends over time [46][47]. - The import, export, and inventory of DMC also showed different trends over time [51][52]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [54][55]. - The production, inventory, and operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots also showed different trends over time [57][58]. - The production and sales of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels also showed different trends over time [59][60]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers also showed different trends over time [70][71]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components also showed different trends over time [76][77]. - The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and soldering tapes showed different trends over time [79][80].

Core Insights - Juhe Materials (688503.SH) reported its Q3 2025 results, revealing that as of October 27, 2025, 16 institutional investors held a total of 33.6137 million A-shares, accounting for 13.89% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively held 13.78% of the shares, which represents a decrease of 4.78 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Institutional Holdings - Among public funds, three funds increased their holdings, including Guotai Junan Value Advantage Flexible Allocation Mixed A, Penghua Sci-Tech Innovation Board New Energy ETF, and Penghua Sci-Tech Innovation Board 200 ETF, with an increase rate of 0.30% [2] - Conversely, three public funds reduced their holdings, including Guotai Junan Valuation Advantage Mixed (LOF) A, Solar ETF, and Guotai Ruijin Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 200 Index Initiated A, with a decrease rate of 0.25% [2] - Seven new public funds disclosed their holdings this period, including Nuoan Pioneer Mixed A, Wanji Domestic Demand Growth One-Year Holding Period Mixed, and Wanji Ruilong A [2] - A total of 203 public funds were not disclosed this period, including Southern CSI 1000 ETF and HSBC Jin Trust Research Selected Mixed [2] Social Security Fund - One social security fund, the National Social Security Fund 118 Portfolio, was not disclosed this period compared to the previous quarter [2]

Group 1: Photon Industry - The "Chasing Light Plan" aims to illuminate new industrial tracks, with the first silicon photonics pilot line in Northwest China set to open in November, providing R&D and pilot services for various photonic innovations [3] - Since 2021, the photon industry has been recognized as a key industrial chain in Shaanxi, with the number of photon enterprises increasing from under 100 in early 2021 to 379 by 2024, and the industry scale growing from 15 billion to 36.5 billion [4] - The establishment of the Qin Chuang Yuan Photon Industry Innovation Cluster in 2024 aims to connect high-growth tech companies with resources and funding, enhancing the innovation ecosystem [4][5] - The application scenarios for the photon industry are expanding, including laser radar for vehicles, 3D sensing for smartphones, satellite communication, and precision manufacturing [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - In the first three quarters of this year, Shaanxi's new energy vehicle exports reached 207,000 units, with an export value of 28.02 billion, marking year-on-year increases of 73.3% and 79.7% respectively [6] - The annual production of new energy vehicles in Shaanxi is projected to grow from 59,500 units in 2020 to 1.198 million units by 2024, representing a nearly 20-fold increase [6] - The automotive industry in Shaanxi has seen a rise in domestic supply rate from 32% in 2020 to 57% currently, with plans to exceed 1.5 million units in annual production by 2027 [9] Group 3: Solar Energy - Longi Green Energy ranked first in China's photovoltaic industry for R&D investment, reflecting the transformation of Shaanxi's photovoltaic sector from manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing [10] - The photovoltaic industry in Shaanxi has maintained the world's leading position in silicon wafer shipments for nine consecutive years, with a market share in photovoltaic modules also ranking first globally [11] - By 2025, the photovoltaic industry in Shaanxi is expected to achieve an annual output value exceeding 350 billion, contributing significantly to the energy revolution [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is in a weak and volatile trend [1]. - Polysilicon's futures market is running strongly, and attention should be paid to the content of today's meeting [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - Industrial silicon (Si2511): The closing price is 8,570 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan compared to T - 5 and 250 yuan compared to T - 22; the trading volume is 225,068 lots, showing a decreasing trend; the open interest is 142,381 lots, also decreasing [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2511): The closing price is 50,865 yuan/ton, an increase of 875 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume is 276,176 lots; the open interest is 80,114 lots [2]. - **Basis**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks, such as +830 yuan/ton for East China Si5530 and +330 yuan/ton for East China Si4210 [2]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium for N - type re - investment is +1385 yuan/ton [2]. - **Prices**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,850 yuan/ton, and Yunnan Si4210 is 9,950 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material is 52,750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profits**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new standard 553 silicon plant is - 2,699.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new standard 553 is - 3,638 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 14.0 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 16.8 million tons, and the industry inventory is 71.3 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 24.0 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: - Industrial silicon: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes vary in different regions [2]. - Polysilicon: The prices of related products such as trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are provided [2]. - Organic silicon: The price of DMC is 11,300 yuan/ton, and the enterprise profit is - 830 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum alloy: The price of ADC12 is 21,050 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 130 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On October 15, 2025, the State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co., Ltd. announced the results of the competitive bidding for the mechanism electricity price of incremental new energy projects in 2025. The mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a scale of 18,539,219,756 kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a scale of 3,608,399,178 kWh [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [4].

Core Insights - TrendBank is organizing various industry conferences to promote collaboration and innovation in the semiconductor and display technology sectors [3][4][10] - The company aims to enhance resource aggregation and industry cluster development in the Ningbo and Yangtze River Delta regions [10][11] Event Summaries - The 2025 TrendBank Display Technology and Supply Chain Industry Annual Conference will be held from November 19-21 in Chengdu, Sichuan [3] - The 2025 TrendBank Polarizer Industry Conference successfully gathered numerous enterprises to explore future development opportunities [4] - The 2025 TrendBank Lithography Industry Conference focused on the localization of lithography technology [4] - The 2025 TrendBank PI Conference and the HIPC 2025 event on heterogeneous integration were also successfully concluded [4] - In 2026, TrendBank plans to host a series of conferences focusing on advanced materials and technologies in the semiconductor industry [6][7][8] Future Plans - TrendBank will collaborate with the Yongjiang Laboratory to host the Heterogeneous Integration Annual Conference from November 17-19, 2025, focusing on advanced packaging technologies [10][11] - The conference will cover topics such as multi-material heterogeneous integration, optoelectronic co-packaging, and advanced packaging techniques like TGV and FOPLP [11]

Market Trends - Photovoltaic sector stocks rose on Tuesday, with LONGi Green Energy once hitting the daily limit [1] - The industry anticipates a new policy release aimed at curbing internal competition [1] - Relevant authorities may issue a notice to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation [1]

Industry Overview - The trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, with the US considering an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which has led to significant declines in US stock markets and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index. This situation is expected to cause a notable pullback in the A-share market, which has reached a 10-year high. However, the impact may be less severe than previous tensions in April due to the timing of policy implementations [2]. Company Performance - Taiwan's leading PCB manufacturer, Zhen Ding Technology, reported a consolidated revenue of NT$47.366 billion for Q3, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.98%. The company anticipates record performance in Q4 due to ongoing demand from IC substrates and various customer orders [3]. - ASUS announced a revenue of NT$82.6 billion for September, reflecting a 31% quarter-on-quarter and 33% year-on-year growth. The Q3 revenue reached NT$200.3 billion, marking a 7% quarter-on-quarter and 20% year-on-year increase, driven by demand for servers, graphics cards, and commercial PCs [3]. - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) expects a net profit of between RMB 1.39 billion and RMB 1.53 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.1% to 652%. The company benefits from strong demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors, as well as effective cost control in the photovoltaic market [4]. - Jihong Co. anticipates a net profit of between RMB 257 million and RMB 270 million for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 95.07% to 105.31%. The growth is attributed to the expansion of cross-border e-commerce and strategic partnerships in the packaging sector [7].

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, and setting a historical record for the second consecutive month [1][2] Group 1: Electricity Consumption by Sector - The primary industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a total of 1,012 billion kilowatt-hours in the first eight months, reflecting a 10.6% year-on-year growth, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than the previous year [1] - The secondary industry continued its recovery, with electricity consumption of 4.34 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first eight months, showing a 3.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors experienced a 5.3% increase in electricity consumption, outperforming the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by 2.5 percentage points [1] - The new energy vehicle manufacturing sector maintained rapid growth, with an electricity consumption increase of 23% in the first eight months [1] Group 2: Trends in Specific Industries - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors saw a 15.8% increase in electricity consumption, driven by the rapid development of mobile internet, big data, and cloud computing [2] - The wholesale and retail sectors experienced an 11.8% increase, with the electric vehicle charging and swapping services growing by 44.1% [2] - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption grew by 6.6% in the first eight months, with a 2.4% year-on-year increase in August [2] Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, supported by policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing industrial growth, leading to a release of production capacity across various sectors [3] - In August, manufacturing electricity consumption increased by 5.5%, the highest monthly growth rate of the year, with notable recovery in raw material industries such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [3] - High-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors demonstrated strong resilience, with all sub-sectors achieving positive growth, indicating the emergence of new economic growth points [3]

Core Insights - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, and achieving a historical high for the second consecutive month [1] - The first industry saw a significant growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 1,012 billion kilowatt-hours in the first eight months, reflecting a 10.6% year-on-year increase [1] - The second industry continued its recovery, with electricity consumption of 4.34 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first eight months, up 3.1% year-on-year [1] - The third industry maintained rapid growth, with electricity consumption of 1.33 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first eight months, showing a 7.7% year-on-year increase [1] Industry-Specific Insights - High-tech and equipment manufacturing industries collectively saw a 5.3% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in the first eight months, outperforming the average growth rate of the manufacturing sector by 2.5 percentage points [1] - The new energy vehicle manufacturing sector experienced a remarkable growth of 23% in electricity consumption during the first eight months [1] - The information transmission/software and IT services sector reported a 15.8% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption, driven by the rapid development of mobile internet, big data, and cloud computing [2] - The wholesale and retail sector's electricity consumption grew by 11.8%, with the electric vehicle charging and swapping services seeing a substantial increase of 44.1% [2] Economic Context - The high electricity consumption levels are attributed to the summer heat, with record high loads reported in July and August due to high temperatures across the country [2] - Government policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing industrial growth have contributed to a warming macroeconomic environment, leading to a release of production capacity across various industries [3] - In August, the manufacturing sector's electricity consumption grew by 5.5%, the highest monthly increase this year, with notable recovery in raw material industries such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [3] - The resilience of high-tech and equipment manufacturing is evident, with all sub-sectors achieving positive growth, indicating the emergence of new economic growth points [3]