作者：宫何 故事起点在20多年前。 2005年底，曾在资本市场叱咤风云、号称"江南第一猛庄"的金信信托，在违规经营与挪用资金的乱象 下，陷入了巨大的兑付黑洞。 随着停业整顿指令的下达，金信信托轰然垮塌，其背后数十亿元信托产品计划、涉及近万名投资者的违 约险境，加剧了这场兑付危机的外部性风险。 专题：行业首例！国投白银LOF补偿方案出炉！ 国投瑞银捡起了刚性兑付的剧本 来源：资管风铃 为了防止风险外溢，多方最终达成了一套特殊的风险处置方案——筹集专项资金：对个人投资者的信托 本金实施优先回购，而机构债权人则进入了漫长的破产清算严冬，承担了底层资产的崩灭代价。 回头来看，当年这起风险处置，深刻影响了中国资产管理市场此后十余年的发展脉络。 从早年的信托行业，到万亿体量的传统银行理财，后来的券商资管、基金子公司的报价式产品，乃至期 间席卷民间金融的P2P乱局，再到最终《资管新规》落地的乱而复治，这些故事上空都漂浮着一个幽 灵，它的名字就是： 刚性兑付 所谓刚性兑付，是指资管产品在底层资产面临风险冲击后的负债端处置中，对于个人投资者全额兑付的 一种父爱式保障。 纵然没有任何一条有据可查的监管规则曾约定管理人具有刚兑义务 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment experiences of several ordinary fund investors in 2025, showcasing their strategies and outcomes in various market conditions. Group 1: Investment Strategies and Outcomes - Investor Xiao Li achieved an average annual return of 26% across all fund products, with a notable 40% return from gold-themed funds after thorough research and strategic timing [2][3] - Investor Xiao Fei successfully shifted from a high-tech index fund to a green energy index fund, preserving a 35% profit during market fluctuations, demonstrating the importance of timely decision-making and market observation [4][6] - Investor Hua Hua transitioned from a novice to a more disciplined investor, constructing a balanced portfolio with 60% in bond-enhanced funds, 30% in technology ETFs, and 10% in dividend ETFs, achieving stable returns and embracing a long-term investment philosophy [7] Group 2: Lessons Learned - Xiao Li emphasized the necessity of thorough research and understanding both sides of an investment before committing, planning to continue holding gold funds and diversifying into colored and technology growth funds in 2026 [3] - Xiao Fei's key takeaway was that investment requires not only vision but also patience and discipline, advocating for informed decision-making based on solid observation rather than impulsive actions [6] - Hua Hua's journey underscored that investment is not a gamble but a process of building knowledge and patience, leading to a steady path of wealth accumulation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of oil funds has been lackluster compared to the significant gains seen in gold and silver funds, raising questions about when oil funds will rebound [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Fund Performance - In 2025, oil-related funds have shown poor performance, with many funds losing over 5%, while gold and silver funds have seen substantial gains, with some gold funds increasing by over 50% [1][3]. - Specifically, three oil funds have reported losses exceeding 10%, with the largest loss being over 13% for the E Fund Oil fund [3]. - Only two oil funds managed to maintain positive returns, one tracking an oil and gas industry index and the other actively selecting oil and gas stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The Brent crude oil price has fluctuated between $50 and $80 per barrel in 2025, with the latest price at $63.12 per barrel as of January 6 [2]. - Factors contributing to the sustained low oil prices include increased production from OPEC and emerging oil-producing countries, along with high output from U.S. shale oil, leading to a surplus in supply [4]. - The demand for oil has been weak due to the rapid development of green energy and electric vehicles, coupled with a lack of growth in the chemical sector [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the U.S. continues its loose monetary policy and domestic demand accelerates, there may be a window for oil prices to rise, but currently, the market remains in a weak state [5]. - Long-term investment in oil funds may yield significant returns if viewed through a 10 to 20-year lens, although uncertainties regarding future demand due to energy revolutions exist [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of oil funds has been lackluster compared to the significant gains seen in gold and silver funds, raising questions about when oil funds will rebound [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance - In 2025, commodity fund performance has shown divergence, with the Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF leading with over 130% gains, while multiple gold funds have increased by over 50% [1][6]. - Conversely, several oil funds have reported losses exceeding 5%, with three oil funds experiencing losses over 10%, the largest being E Fund Oil with a loss of over 13% [5][6]. Group 2: Oil Price Trends - Over the past year, gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while international oil prices have remained under pressure, fluctuating between $50 and $80 per barrel, with the latest price at $63.12 per barrel [3][4]. - The oil market is currently characterized by a weak state, primarily influenced by expectations of oversupply, as OPEC and emerging oil-producing countries have increased production, coupled with high U.S. shale oil output [9][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current oil market is in a bottoming phase, with the potential for a rebound if U.S. demand and economic growth accelerate alongside global industrial recovery [9][10]. - Long-term investment in oil funds may yield substantial returns if viewed through a 10 to 20-year horizon, although uncertainties regarding future demand due to energy revolutions exist [10].

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, with domestic oil funds experiencing a surge in trading volume and premiums [2][3][6]. Oil Price Movement - Following military conflicts between Iran and Israel, international oil prices have seen a notable rise, with WTI crude oil futures opening at $78 per barrel, up 5.6%, and Brent crude oil futures opening at $81.4 per barrel, up 5.7% on June 23 [3][10]. - Year-to-date, WTI and Brent crude oil futures have increased nearly 8% from their initial prices, reaching highs of $75.74 and $78.5 per barrel, respectively [3][11]. Fund Performance - Domestic oil funds, such as the Jiashi Oil LOF and Southern Oil LOF, have seen significant price increases, with Jiashi Oil reaching a limit-up on June 23 [6][9]. - As of June 23, Jiashi Oil LOF had a real-time premium of nearly 18%, with a transaction volume of 1.386 billion yuan, while Southern Oil LOF had a premium exceeding 7% and a transaction volume of nearly 800 million yuan [9]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current situation is characterized by high war premiums due to the escalating conflict, combined with a traditional demand peak for oil [6][10]. - The market anticipates that oil prices may face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to potential oversupply risks from OPEC+ production increases and a decrease in oil demand expectations [2][11]. Geopolitical Factors - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, could lead to sustained upward pressure on oil prices, with estimates suggesting prices could soar to around $130 per barrel if the strait is blocked [10][11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil supply dynamics are crucial for future price movements, with the market closely monitoring Iran's actions and OPEC's production strategies [10][11].