Group 1: Core Views - The company maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the home appliance industry, emphasizing the need for upward expectations and the overall low exposure to the U.S. market [1] - Key recommendations include focusing on high-quality, high-dividend white goods leaders, leading TV brands with strong product capabilities, and small appliances with expected performance elasticity [1] Group 2: White Goods - Domestic sales of white goods are expected to see high single to double-digit growth by Q2 2025, driven by national subsidy policies, with terminal sales outpacing shipments [1] - The air conditioning leaders are actively adjusting product structures, showing significant market share elasticity and outperforming the overall industry [1] - The cost environment is improving, and stable average prices are expected to enhance profitability, with Q2 revenue performance likely to exceed expectations [1] Group 3: Color TVs - The demand for color TVs has shown slight fluctuations, but the penetration rate of MiniLED technology is increasing due to subsidy policies [2] - The average selling prices for online and offline channels have increased by 10.5% and 6.5% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a significant product structure optimization [2] - Leading Chinese TV brands are expected to maintain steady revenue growth, benefiting from their advantages in the panel supply chain [2] Group 4: Kitchen Appliances - The demand for kitchen appliances is supported by national subsidies, with retail growth expected to remain relatively stable in Q2 2025 despite a decline in construction area [3] - The integrated stove market may face pressure, while the demand for separate stoves is expected to remain steady [3] Group 5: Emerging Small Appliances - The market for robotic vacuum cleaners and washing machines is experiencing high growth, with domestic brands performing well in exports [4] - The domestic market is expected to continue growing, driven by high-end products and competitive pricing strategies [4] Group 6: Small Kitchen Appliances - The trend of recovering domestic demand for small kitchen appliances continues, supported by low base effects and national subsidies [5] - The competitive landscape in the small appliance sector has eased, with significant price increases during the "618" shopping festival [5] - However, external sales are under pressure due to tariffs affecting some OEM small appliance companies [5]

后周期：终端需求仍偏弱，盈利能力承压 地产端，2025年1-2月住宅竣工面积同比-18%，后周期行业需求承压，但环比2024Q4降幅均有收窄;而在 以旧换新政策方面，考虑到消费者需求在去年四季度或有集中释放，一季度带动或有限;综合来看，该 行预计2025Q1产业需求基本与2024Q4相近，总体依然偏弱。在规模承压背景下，板块盈利能力或也小 幅承压。 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生证券发布研报称，内销稳健增长叠加外销优异表现，家电板块整体稳健经 营。后续看，基于政策带动及偏低基数，内销或提速;而龙头公司抗风险手段丰富，外销风险可控，总 体稳健经营可期。叠加板块估值分红优势，维持"强于大市"评级，标的方面：推荐白电龙头格力电器 (000651.SZ)、美的集团(000333.SZ)、海尔智家(600690.SH)、海信家电(000921.SZ)。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 白电：收入稳健增长，盈利能力延续改善 政策接续预期影响下，2025Q1空调/冰箱/洗衣机内销增速环比或略有放缓;出口端，基于产业在线数据 以及龙头前期订单情况，预计依然维持较好增长，表现较超预期;综合影响下，白电板块当季收入稳健 增长可期，此外 ...