智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，展望2026年，家电行业投资主线清晰：一是在不确定性中追 求确定性，白电龙头凭借低估值与高股息凸显防御价值，且外销在产能出海与降息预期下有望改善；二 是在新动能中寻找高增长，以扫地机、智能割草机为代表的新兴品类正引领全球渗透，成为最强劲的增 长引擎；三是在格局重塑中把握机遇，黑电领域"中进韩退"趋势明确，中国品牌通过技术升级与全球化 运营持续提升份额。整体而言，行业正从规模扩张转向价值增长。 天风证券主要观点如下： 2025年1-11月市场表现回顾 2025年1-11月，申万家电行业指数整体上涨8%，内部呈现显著结构性分化。家电零部件板块年内上涨 62%，市场对其成长逻辑给予高溢价。从估值角度看，白电龙头尽管股价承压，但低估值与高股息特性 凸显其防御属性。 白电：内销前高后低，外销静待改善 扫地机：全球市场保持量价齐升。2025年行业进入"活水洗地"产品周期，但高价位抑制渗透率快速提 升。预计2026年竞争将转向性价比活水产品，需关注国补退坡影响。智能割草机：主流路线收敛（RTK 融合、激光雷达、视觉方案主导）驱动渗透率快速提升。中国品牌（库犸、科沃斯、追觅）已在线上渠 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如何看待近期涨价领域拥挤度偏高的情况 最近一年走势 相关报告 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 《牛市中岁末还会出现风格切换吗*赵阳》—— 2025-11-08 《策略周报：《"十五五"规划建议》落地后市场 如何演绎？*赵阳》——2025-11-02 《策略研究框架的时代底色：极致的轮动与绝对的 低波*赵阳》——2025-10-25 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 本篇报告主要讨论：1、近期热门涨价板块有哪些、拥挤度如何？2、历 史看，涨价板块拥挤度偏高会发生什么？后续能否创新高？3、回到当下， 哪些涨价行情有望延续？4、如何看待拥挤度已偏低的领域？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、2025 年 10 月以来涨价品种再获关注，热门领域主要集中在新能 源、AI 以及部分黑色、有色以及化工品种，多数 ...

2025 年 11 月 21 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 红利、科技与出海: 2026 家 容三年线 -2026 年家电行业投资策略 本期投资局示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 需求显著改善,估值触底反弹。白电板块,根据产业在线数据,25年1-9月空调累计实 ● 现内销量 9081 万台，同比+8.4%，24 年"以旧换新"政策于 7 月底落地，1-8 月具备 一定低基数优势。25Q1/Q2/Q3 单季度空调内销同比+6.2%/+11.6%/+6.0%，其中 7/8/9 月同比+14.3%/+1.2%/-2.5%，进入 25Q3，家空内销增速逐步放缓。厨电板块，国补显 著拉动销售，25H1 延续增长势头。根据奥维云网数据，24 年油烟机实现零售额 362 亿 元，同比+14.9%；燃气灶零售额 204亿元，同 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 家电行业 2025Q3 基金重仓分析 重仓家电比例下降，家电上游及清洁电器获 推荐（维持） 增配 行业研究 家电 2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 20,320.65 | 1.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 18,146.56 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | | 相对表现 | 3.4% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -11% -2% 8% 18% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements from multiple listed companies regarding future dividend plans have garnered market attention, indicating a trend towards increased shareholder returns and confidence in corporate profitability [1][2][8]. Group 1: Dividend Plans - Yili Co. announced a plan for 2025-2027, committing to a cash dividend totaling at least 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders each year, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share for 2024 [1][8]. - Sanda Membrane disclosed a special dividend plan for 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting stable operational performance and a healthy balance sheet [2]. - China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) plans to distribute a minimum cash dividend of 0.11756 yuan per share for 2025, amounting to approximately 1.9142 billion yuan, which is about 20% of its net profit for the first half of 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Implementation of Dividend Plans - Jidian Co. announced a cash dividend of 0.21 yuan per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025, with an expected total payout of approximately 76.17 million yuan, representing a dividend rate of 9.73% [4]. - Midea Group plans to distribute 5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling around 3.448 billion yuan, with the record date set for November 17 [5]. Group 3: Enhancing Shareholder Returns - Many companies are expressing intentions to gradually increase investor returns, with Ming Tai Aluminum committing to a minimum annual dividend payout ratio of 30% over the next three years [6][7]. - Yili Co. emphasized the importance of stable dividend expectations in enhancing company value and investor confidence, advocating for increased frequency of dividends and simplified mid-term dividend processes [8].

2025年1-9月空调/冰箱/洗衣机内销量同比增长8%/2%/5%，其中9月开始出现下降，国补高基数压力初 显。后续看，国补高基数压力主要集中在2025Q4及2026Q2，后续增速有望逐步修复。中长期看，我国 空调需求仍具备增长潜力，尚有30%以上的家庭住房未安装空调；冰洗规模则相对稳定，行业需求韧性 充足。格局方面，空冰洗行业集中度均有所提升，1-9月空调行业CR3同比提升0.2pct，冰洗龙头海尔、 美的份额持续提升。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，当前白电板块估值处于历史低位，内外销短期承压但中长期 韧性充足。内销在空调渗透率提升和龙头份额集中下仍有空间，外销随关税影响减弱、海外降息及产能 出海布局，有望逐季复苏。2026年基数压力缓解后有望回归稳健增长，龙头公司凭借份额提升与品牌出 海具备更强增长动能。 国信证券主要观点如下： 白电当前位置 通过复盘家电下乡期间家电的股价表现，该行发现，家电相对收益有望在销量同比增速最差的时间点触 底，并随着降幅的收窄而有所反弹。随着销量增速逐步回正并实现一定幅度的正增长，家电有望取得明 显正相对收益。在这期间，收入业绩增长稳健、市占率提升的家电龙头公司股价 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11] Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows strong profitability resilience despite challenges from domestic subsidy reductions and external tariff impacts. The overall valuation remains at a reasonable low level, suggesting opportunities for growth in high-performing leaders and stable value recovery in established companies [2][10] Overall Industry Summary - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue growth of 7.52% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of +13.97%, +5.46%, and +3.59% respectively. The growth trend is expected to slow down due to subsidy reductions and diminishing marginal effects [4][21] - The gross profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 24.75%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.54 percentage points, while the gross sales difference improved by 0.64 percentage points to 16.35% [31][39] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,048.77 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, with Q3 net profit growing by 4.22% [38][44] White Goods - The white goods sector reported a revenue growth of 9.06% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 5.29%. The sector benefits from a reduction in domestic price competition, leading to a recovery in gross profit margins [5][27] - The net profit for the white goods sector increased by 11.32% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a growth of 3.50% [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue growth of 3.09% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a decline of 2.64%. The sector's performance is influenced by a low base effect and increased non-recurring gains [6][24] - The net profit for the black goods sector surged by 37.26% in Q3, reflecting a strong recovery [42][43] Kitchen Appliances and Post-Cycle - The kitchen appliance sector faced a revenue decline of 4.09% in Q3 2025, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market and cautious consumer spending [7][25] - The net profit for the kitchen appliance sector decreased by 12.73% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Small Appliances - The small appliances sector achieved a revenue growth of 5.92% in Q3 2025, with the cleaning segment showing a remarkable growth of 30.70% [8][24] - The net profit for the small appliances sector increased by 16.52% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Upstream Components - The upstream components sector reported a revenue growth of 8.13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth at 3.31%. The sector's profitability significantly improved due to order and business structure optimization [9][26] - The net profit for the upstream components sector grew by 30.29% in Q3 [42][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth leaders with strong organizational, technological, and brand capabilities, such as Anker Innovations, Roborock, and Ninebot. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to stable leaders like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric for value recovery opportunities [10]

Core Insights - The home appliance industry shows resilient growth with a 3.6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, totaling 366.3 billion yuan, despite external pressures from reduced government subsidies and high export bases [13][14][22] - The overall net profit for the industry increased by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching 30.1 billion yuan, with a slight improvement in net profit margin by 0.1 percentage points [13][14][22] Segment Analysis White Goods - The white goods segment reported a revenue of 268.7 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 9.5% [30][31] - Major players like Midea and Haier showed strong performance, with Midea's revenue growing by 9.9% and Haier's by 9.5% [33][34] Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance segment experienced a revenue decline of 4.8% in Q3, totaling 5.96 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 8.4% [37][44] - Traditional kitchen appliance companies like Boss and Vanward maintained relatively stable performance, while integrated stove manufacturers faced significant pressure [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods segment saw a revenue decrease of 3.6% in Q3, amounting to 47.29 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 41.9% to 1.4 billion yuan [45][53] - Companies like Hisense maintained stable growth, benefiting from balanced domestic and international operations [52][53] Small Appliances - The small appliance segment achieved a revenue growth of 6.3% in Q3, reaching 30.62 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.7% [54][59] - Emerging categories within small appliances, such as robotic vacuum cleaners, contributed significantly to revenue growth [59] Lighting and Components - The lighting and components segment reported stable revenue of 13.73 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, but faced profit pressure with a net profit margin of 4.6% [3][28]

Core Insights - The home appliance industry shows resilient growth with a 3.6% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, totaling 366.3 billion yuan, despite a slowdown due to the reduction of national subsidies and high export bases [13][14][22] - The overall net profit for the industry increased by 4.4% year-on-year, reaching 30.1 billion yuan, with a slight improvement in net profit margin by 0.1 percentage points [13][14][22] Segment Analysis White Goods - The white goods segment reported a revenue of 268.7 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a 5.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 9.5% [30][31] - Major players like Midea and Haier showed strong performance, with Midea's revenue growing by 9.9% and Haier's by 9.5% [33][34] Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance segment experienced a revenue decline of 4.8% in Q3, totaling 5.96 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 8.4% [37][44] - Traditional kitchen appliance companies like Boss and Vanward maintained relatively stable performance, while integrated stove companies faced significant pressure [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods segment saw a revenue decrease of 3.6% in Q3, amounting to 47.29 billion yuan, but net profit increased by 41.9% to 1.4 billion yuan [45][53] - Companies like Hisense maintained stable growth, benefiting from balanced domestic and international operations [52][53] Small Appliances - The small appliance segment achieved a revenue growth of 6.3% in Q3, reaching 30.62 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 6.7% [54][59] - Emerging categories within small appliances contributed significantly to revenue growth, with companies like Roborock and Xiaobear showing strong performance [59] Lighting and Components - The lighting and components segment reported stable revenue of 13.73 billion yuan in Q3, with a slight decline in net profit margin to 4.6% [3][28] - The segment faced challenges due to declining downstream demand and tariff impacts [3][28] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Midea Group, Haier, TCL, and Gree in the white goods sector, while Hisense is suggested for black goods, and Roborock and Xiaobear for small appliances [4][5] Key Data Tracking - The home appliance sector's relative return in October was +0.70%, indicating positive market performance [3][4] - Raw material prices showed increases in October, with copper and aluminum prices rising by 5.7% and 7.6% respectively [3][4]

Core Insights - Zhang Ruimin's contributions to Haier Group include creating a global enterprise, establishing a world-class brand, pioneering a leading business model, and fostering a maker culture, with the "Ren-Dan-He-Yi" model being central to his management philosophy [2][3] Group 1: Business Model and Culture - The "Ren-Dan-He-Yi" model emphasizes aligning employees with user needs, encouraging each employee to find their own users [2] - In 2012, Haier implemented a network strategy that dismantled hierarchical structures, resulting in the elimination of over 10,000 middle management positions, leading to a focus on three roles: platform owners, micro-entrepreneurs, and makers [2][3] Group 2: Current Challenges - Despite the initial success of the "Ren-Dan-He-Yi" model, internal communication and collaboration have become challenging over time, leading to inefficiencies within Haier Smart Home [4] - Li Huagang, the current head of Haier Smart Home, has emphasized the need for digital restructuring to enhance internal efficiency, but his performance has been seen as mediocre, reflecting the company's overall performance [4][10] Group 3: Financial Performance - Haier Smart Home reported a revenue of 775.6 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.51%, with a total revenue of 2,340.54 billion for the first three quarters, up 9.98% year-on-year [6][7] - The company's performance has outpaced the overall market, as the Chinese home appliance industry saw a decline of 3.2% in retail sales during the same period [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent government subsidies have temporarily boosted consumption but are expected to lead to a decline in demand in the latter half of 2025, raising concerns about future revenue growth for Haier Smart Home [10][12] - The capital market has shown caution towards Haier Smart Home, with its price-to-earnings ratio dropping from approximately 15 times at the beginning of the year to about 11.9 times by the end of October [10] Group 5: Operational Efficiency - Haier Smart Home has been facing "big company disease," characterized by low operational efficiency and high costs compared to competitors, resulting in the lowest profit margins among major domestic players [14][16] - The company's sales expense ratio has been consistently higher than that of its competitors, indicating inefficiencies in cost management [17][18] Group 6: International Market Performance - Haier Smart Home's North American market, which accounts for over half of its overseas revenue, has shown stagnation, limiting the company's growth potential in international markets [19][20] - The North American market has seen a decline in revenue growth, contributing to the overall challenges faced by Haier Smart Home in expanding its overseas presence [20] Group 7: Future Directions - The company is undergoing a transformation under the leadership of Zhou Yunjie, who has called for embracing AI and organizational changes, but achieving these goals will require overcoming internal efficiency challenges [13][21] - The complexity of the organizational structure and the proliferation of brands have created barriers to effective communication and collaboration, hindering the company's ability to innovate and respond to market demands [24][25]