Group 1 - The report highlights that government subsidies stimulated sales in Q2, leading to continued positive revenue growth. The competitive landscape in the small home appliance sector has improved, driving profit recovery, while leading players in the major appliance sector are helping to concentrate market share, suggesting an increase in holdings [2][29]. - The report recommends focusing on two main investment lines: 1) The improvement in the competitive landscape of small home appliances brings profit elasticity, particularly in the vacuum cleaner sector, which has high growth potential and low penetration rates. The kitchen small appliances sector is gradually returning to growth after two years of decline, with a significant increase in sales during the 618 shopping festival [2][29]. - The report indicates that leading brands in the white goods sector are dominating the current price competition, leading to increased industry concentration. The export performance of major appliance manufacturers is expected to gradually recover as uncertainties around tariff policies are clarified [3][31]. Group 2 - The company Salted Fish's differentiated product, the konjac sauce, achieved over 100 million in monthly sales within 16 months, setting a record for the fastest-selling snack product. The konjac snack segment is still in a high-growth phase, supported by a strong supply chain and channel capabilities [7][8]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence with its own brand "Mowon," developing localized products based on local tastes, which is expected to drive growth in international markets [8][9]. - The report maintains an "increase holdings" rating for the company, projecting EPS of 2.99, 3.73, and 4.63 for 2025-2027, with a target price of 100.00 yuan based on strong performance in konjac products [7][8].

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 度 证券分析师 刘正 A0230518100001 liuzheng@swsresearch.com 刘嘉玲 A0230522120003 liujl@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘嘉玲 (8621)23297818× liujl@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 09 日 内销政策拉动延续，关税扰动出口 不改长期趋势 看好 ——家电行业 2025 年中报业绩前瞻 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 究 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 25 年 1-5 月空调内销增长、外销高增，地产+以旧换新政策催化白电、大厨电需求。根据产业在线 数据显示，2025 年 1-5 月空调行业实现累计产量 10154 万台，同比增长 8%；2025 年 1-5 月空调 行业实现销量 10349 万台，同比增长 9%，其中内销量同比增长 7%。冰箱 2025 年 1-5 月内销量同 比增长 1%；洗衣机 2025 年 1-5 月内销量同增长 10%。出口方面，20 ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 2025 年 07 月 05 日 白电企业集体布局机器人，特朗普 称美越达成贸易协议 看好 ——《2025/6/30-2025/7/4》家电周报 本期投资提示： ⚫ 数据观察：5 月白电内销延续增长，外销表现分化 A、空调出货端：总体销量增长，内外销表现分化。根据产业在线披露数据，2025 年 5 月空调行业实现产量 2081.20 万台，同比下降 1.8%；实现总销量 2203.38 万台，同 比上升 2.34%，其中内销 1412.50 万台，同比上升 13.39%，出口 790.88 万台，同比 下降 12.83%。分品牌出货端：空调总销量美的位列第一。根据产业在线披露，2025 年 5 月空调总销量市占率美的以 29.50%的市占率位列第一，格力、海信、奥克斯、海 尔市占率分别为 20.70%、6.50%、10.50%和 9.20%。 B、冰箱出货端：内销保持增长，外销有所下降。根据产业在线披露数据，2025 年 5 月冰箱行业实现产量 839.90 万台，同比上升 2.0%；实现销量 849.70 万台，同比上升 1.83%，其中内销 388.50 万台，同比上升 13 ...

消费策略&组合配置：新消费创造成长主线，结构性牛市曙 光已现 20260629 摘要 中国经济增长引擎缺失，但出口复苏有望改善国内经济活动。企业偿债 现金流增速下降，资产负债表修复过半，出口正向冲击或带动高周转消 费修复，个人所得税反弹预示居民收入缓慢修复。 7 月投资策略应规避流动性驱动资产，关注基本面改善的服务消费和高 周转商品消费。新消费核心驱动力在于创造新场景和业态，关注高周转、 低杠杆的服务性消费及耐用消费品出口。 内需方面，消费板块投资偏向"红利加"品种，关注情绪价值消费（潮 玩、宠物）、功能价值消费（AI+）、消费出海和渠道变革（海澜之家 等）。 商贸零售面临供给过剩和需求不足挑战，关注新需求带来的边际机会， 包括传统渠道变革和即时零售崛起。新需求集中于服务性消费，跨境出 海企业需关注供应链、品牌溢价和渠道溢价能力。 2025 年 618 电商大促符合预期，抖音增速超预期，呈现全域协同趋势， 国补品类是增长动力，即时零售表现突出。线下零售渠道调整加速，永 辉超市调改店规模化，胖东来模式门店数量预计快速增长。 Q&A 当前宏观经济背景下，消费板块面临哪些挑战与机遇，尤其是在流动性与基本 面层面？ ...

近期上证指数突破3/18创下的年内新高，并接近2024/10/8的高点。指数新高背后，各行业分化依然较为明显。 一级行业看： 对比2025/3/18收盘价，当前银行、农牧、美护、军工、化工、交运、石化中 超2025/3/18水平占比居前 ，钢铁、电子、家电、通信、计算机、电力设备中 该类个股占比靠后； 对比2024/10/8收盘价，当前银行、摩托车、军工（地面兵装、航天装备）、化工（塑料、非金属材料）、新消费（文娱用品、个护用品、零售、饰品） 中个股收盘价超2024/10/8水平占比居前，传统消费（白酒、酒店餐饮、白电、厨电）、医药（中药、医疗器械、医疗服务、医药商业）、非银（证券、 保险）、光伏设备、钢铁、煤炭开采中该类个股占比靠后。 对比2024/10/8收盘价，当前银行、零售、美护、机械、军工、汽车中个股收盘价 超2024/10/8水平占比居前， 钢铁、非银、煤炭、医药、地产 中该类个股 占比靠后。 二级行业看： 对比2025/3/18收盘价，当前金融（银行、保险、多元金融）、军工（航海装备、地面兵装）、农牧（动物保健、农化制品、种植业、饲料）、贵金属、 个护用品、化学制药中超2025/3/18水平占比 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月24日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-23 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3381.58 | 10048.39 | 3857.90 | 11447.53 | 2859.36 | 961.48 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.87 | 1.32 | 0.37 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4427.89 | 6798.17 | 2324.82 | 2475.29 | 3403.28 | 249.94 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 80 $\mu$H$\beta$ ] 宏观与策略 宏观快评:深圳加快推进综改试点-——深圳贯彻落实《关于深入推进深 圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的 ...

行 业 及 产 业 家用电器 2025 年 06 月 20 日 内 需 焕 新 增 势 ， 外 需 多 元 拓 疆 看好 ——2025 年家电行业中期策略报告：聚焦"以旧换新"政 策红利与新兴市场出口机遇 本期投资提示： 【稳健】白电板块兼具"低估值、高分红、稳增长"属性，股价安全边际高和弹性大兼 顾。内销方面，24 年以旧换新政策落地后效果超预期；25 年政府工作会议中提及仍将 大力提振消费、全方位扩大国内需求，实施提振消费专项行动，景气度有望受益延续。 出口方面，头部大家电企业均在全球多地布局生产基地，能够良好应对关税等国际贸易 政策波动；同时，东南亚、南美、非洲等多个新兴市场需求旺盛，有望显著拉动家电增 量。我们看好白电产业链量价齐升，持续推荐白电板块海尔、美的、格力+海信家电的组 合。 【成长】以清洁电器为代表的家电新消费品类渗透率持续提升，成长空间广阔。推荐大 客户订单突破带动收入放量，盈利能力稳定提升的欧圣电气；推荐小家电出口大客户开 拓顺利，EPS 电机量产贡献成长的德昌股份；推荐海外需求回暖，内销新品持续推进的 石头科技。 【第二成长曲线】上游核心零部件企业在深耕家电行业的同时，积极向汽零等领 ...

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in June, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% while continuing quantitative tightening, which aligns with market expectations [2][3] - Economic forecasts indicate a downward adjustment in growth expectations for 2025 and 2026, with unemployment rates slightly increased, reflecting concerns over "stagflation" [3][4] - The dollar index is expected to decline further in 2025 due to tariffs, economic slowdown, and strengthening of alternative assets, stabilizing below 100 for the year [7] Home Appliances Industry - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from long-term stability, with white goods focusing on performance consistency and increasing dividend rates, while black goods present opportunities due to enhanced global competitiveness [9][12] - The industry has seen a significant increase in the SW home appliance index, with respective gains of 3.8%, 25.4%, and 1.93% for 2023, 2024, and 2025 YTD [9][10] - The outlook for the home appliance market is cautious due to potential demand exhaustion and intensified competition, particularly in the air conditioning segment [10][11] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently facing significant supply and demand pressures, with low profitability in the petrochemical sector, and a need for structural opportunities as the market stabilizes [15][16] - Brent crude oil prices are projected to range between $60-$70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, which may alleviate some cost pressures for the industry [15] - Key investment themes include domestic demand stimulation, supply-side constraints, and the domestic substitution of new materials [15][16] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector is experiencing structural differentiation, with a focus on new technologies and non-US exports, particularly in the wind and solar energy segments [18][19] - The demand for energy storage is expected to shift from policy-driven to market-driven profitability, with significant growth potential in domestic and overseas markets [20][21] - The wind energy sector is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by increased installations and demand from emerging markets [19][20] Investment Strategies - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term investment strategies, particularly in state-owned enterprises, technology, and consumer sectors, which are expected to yield stable excess returns [24][25] - The development of public funds is expected to favor long-term and passive investment strategies, with a focus on ETFs and sector-specific funds [25][26] - The report highlights the potential for significant returns through quantitative stock selection strategies based on fundamental factors [24][26]

银河证券：白电板块的投资主要看公司业绩稳定性 中国银河证券指出，白电板块的投资主要看公司业绩稳定性，分红率稳步提升与无风险利率下行带来的 估值提升趋势；黑电板块的投资机会主要在于全球竞争力提升背景下的业绩弹性；清洁电器的投资机会 在于行业自2023年三季度以来深度整合之后龙头胜出后的机会；此外，AI与具身机器人技术的渗透， 部分公司将引入有吸引力的新智能产品。 光大证券指出，美高级官员透露美对伊袭击时间表，市场担忧中东局势再度升级，导致亚太股市普跌； 同时，刺激油气产业链逆市大涨。从A股自身来看，部分资金获利了结，前期强势的可控核聚变、稀 土、医药、新消费等板块带头下跌，直接拖累了整个市场。市场虽然调整，但指数仍然处于区间震荡的 格局，指数调整之后随时有望反弹。方向上关注人形机器人概念。 中金公司：未来IP及其衍生品产业有望步入下一阶段成长周期 中金公司研报表示，在全球IP商业化路径逐步成熟的背景下，预计未来IP及其衍生品产业有望在IP形象 和产品形式的持续创新驱动下，步入下一阶段成长周期。根据灼识咨询数据，全球IP玩具市场规模2024 年为5251亿元，预计2024—2029年CAGR（复合年均增长率）为8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance sector is expected to underperform the CSI 300 index in the first half of 2025 due to tariff increases, fluctuations in the trade-in policy, and high base expectations for the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Home Appliance Sector Overview - As of June 13, 2025, the home appliance sector has seen a year-to-date decline of 3.16%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.37 percentage points [2]. - Key stocks showing positive performance include motorcycle and black appliance companies, such as Taotao Industry, Chunfeng Power, Ninebot, TCL Electronics, and others [2]. Group 2: White Appliance Sector - Demand differentiation between peak and off-peak seasons has increased, with a rapid recovery in Q2 2025 [3]. - China's dominance in global white appliance production remains intact, with short-term external shocks unlikely to alter long-term export growth trends [3]. - Adjustments in local subsidy policies aim to address previous imbalances and funding issues, with limited impact on annual sales expected [3]. - Emerging markets are showing stable economic growth, providing continuous incremental market opportunities for white appliance exports [3]. Group 3: Black Appliance Sector - Domestic and international demand remains robust, with significant structural upgrades towards large-size and MiniLED products [4]. - National subsidies are expected to continue driving domestic demand growth, with rapid increases in MiniLED penetration [4]. - Companies like Hisense and TCL are enhancing their overseas production capabilities, leading to expected growth in shipments and increased market share in the high-end segment [4]. Group 4: Cleaning Appliance Sector - The cleaning appliance category, particularly robotic vacuum cleaners, is benefiting significantly from national subsidies, with high growth expected in 2025 [5]. - The overseas market remains in a favorable cycle, with leading companies expanding their market share [5]. - The shift in consumer perception from optional to essential for cleaning appliances indicates substantial long-term growth potential in the domestic market [5]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2025 are primarily focused on the stability of the white appliance industry and the profit improvement potential in black appliances and robotic vacuum cleaners [6].