Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng highlights the significant impact of AI and tariffs on market dynamics during the last Spring Festival, with DeepSeek emerging as a key player that challenged the notion of American exceptionalism, leading to a surge in Hong Kong stocks while US tech stocks faced pressure [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Market Trends - The AI industry remains a crucial theme for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations for continued tech market momentum and potential recovery in Hong Kong stocks [2][5]. - Major AI models and products are set to launch during the Spring Festival, including ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Alibaba's Qwen3.0, which are expected to drive the tech sector [5][6]. - The performance of Nvidia during the holiday period will serve as an important reference for industry expectations and risk appetite [5]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns regarding potential tightening of liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, particularly related to macroeconomic data releases in the US, such as CPI and GDP [10][12]. - The new Fed chair candidate's statements are anticipated to influence market sentiment, although the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate stability [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Iran, could pose significant risks, with potential military actions being a concern that may affect market stability [17][18].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Recent macroeconomic data improvements may slightly weaken market rate cut expectations, potentially causing short-term rebounds in the USD and US Treasury yields, which could negatively impact equity markets; however, the overall impact is expected to be limited[4] - The US job market has been revised down by nearly 900,000 annually, indicating a fragile economic recovery characterized by a "K-shaped" divergence[4][21] - The new Fed Chair nominee, Waller's statements are closely watched, but are unlikely to disrupt the Fed's established policy framework[7] Group 2: Market Trends and Risks - The upcoming Spring Festival may bring new narratives affecting post-holiday capital market trends, with AI and tariffs as key themes; last year, AI significantly impacted market dynamics, leading to a surge in Hong Kong stocks[6] - The technology sector is expected to continue its momentum, with significant AI model launches anticipated during the holiday period, potentially creating trading opportunities[6][12] - However, risks such as tightening liquidity expectations and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, need to be monitored closely[7][8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US CPI and GDP growth are expected to rebound, with January's non-farm payrolls showing a significant increase, marking a step towards pausing rate cuts[6][19] - The GDPnow forecast predicts a high GDP growth rate of 3.7% for Q4 2025, indicating robust economic activity[19] - The recent surge in oil prices, reaching $70 per barrel, reflects geopolitical tensions and market adjustments following significant corrections in commodity prices[7][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the smart technology industry [2] Core Insights - The smart technology sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with various ETFs showing strong performance, particularly in the media and AI segments [3][12] - The market for new games is recovering, with both domestic and international supply accelerating, led by major companies like Tencent [4][34] - The AI application landscape is witnessing breakthroughs, with significant investments from major tech companies, indicating a potential revaluation of AI application sectors [5] Market Review - The smart technology ETFs have shown a general upward trend, with the media ETF (512980) leading with a 22.14% increase, followed by the Sci-Tech AI ETF (588760) and the Xinchuang ETF (159537) with increases of 17.39% and 17.21% respectively [3][12] - The technology sector is in an upward channel, supported by factors such as valuation recovery, improved trading structures, and ongoing policy support for technology sectors [12] Industry Dynamics - The gaming market is seeing a revival with major titles being launched, including Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" and "All-Star Awakening," which are expected to generate significant revenue [4][34] - The film industry is also active, with six high-quality films scheduled for release during the 2026 Spring Festival, indicating a rich supply for the cinema market [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI application-themed ETFs, as the release of models like Seedance 2.0 and Keling 3.0 marks significant advancements in the multi-modal field, which could lead to accelerated commercialization of AI applications [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for multimodal models, which are anticipated to drive growth in the film, gaming, and advertising sectors due to significant improvements in capabilities and cost reductions [5][12][15] - The launch of the Keling 3.0 series and Byte's Seedance 2.0 marks a competitive breakthrough in the multimodal field, enabling comprehensive video production processes and enhancing user experience [6][13] - Keling AI has rapidly commercialized its multimodal models, boasting over 60 million creators and generating more than 600 million videos, with an annual revenue run rate of $240 million [7][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer index fell by 3.27% during the week of February 2-6, 2026, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% [4][16] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape with the introduction of advanced models like Keling 3.0 and Seedance 2.0, which are set to redefine video creation and content production [6][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of commercial viability for multimodal models, suggesting that 2026 will be crucial for cost reduction and quality enhancement [14] Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary companies include Wanjing Technology, Haitai Ruisheng, Hongsoft Technology, and others, with a focus on AI application investment opportunities [8][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for multimodal models, which are anticipated to drive growth in the film, gaming, and advertising sectors due to significant improvements in capabilities and reductions in costs [5][12][15] - The launch of the Keling 3.0 series and Byte's Seedance 2.0 models marks a significant advancement in the multimodal field, enabling comprehensive video production processes and enhancing competition among industry players [6][13] - Keling AI has rapidly commercialized its multimodal models, boasting over 60 million creators and generating more than 600 million videos by the end of 2025, with an annual revenue run rate of $240 million [7][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer index fell by 3.27% during the week of February 2-6, 2026, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% [4][16] Multimodal Model Developments - The initial Sora model by OpenAI, launched in February 2024, is compared to a significant breakthrough in video technology, with subsequent models showing substantial advancements [5][12] - The Keling 3.0 series, launched on February 5, 2026, integrates various multimedia capabilities, marking a new era in AI-driven content creation [6][13] Commercialization Potential - The report emphasizes that 2026 will be crucial for the commercialization of multimodal models, driven by enhanced model capabilities and reduced costs, which will lower barriers to entry for users [7][14] Investment Recommendations - Beneficiaries of the anticipated growth in the multimodal sector include companies such as Wanjing Technology, Haitai Ruisheng, and Hongsoft Technology, among others [8][15]