Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng highlights the significant impact of AI and tariffs on market dynamics during the last Spring Festival, with DeepSeek emerging as a key player that challenged the notion of American exceptionalism, leading to a surge in Hong Kong stocks while US tech stocks faced pressure [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Market Trends - The AI industry remains a crucial theme for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations for continued tech market momentum and potential recovery in Hong Kong stocks [2][5]. - Major AI models and products are set to launch during the Spring Festival, including ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Alibaba's Qwen3.0, which are expected to drive the tech sector [5][6]. - The performance of Nvidia during the holiday period will serve as an important reference for industry expectations and risk appetite [5]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns regarding potential tightening of liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, particularly related to macroeconomic data releases in the US, such as CPI and GDP [10][12]. - The new Fed chair candidate's statements are anticipated to influence market sentiment, although the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate stability [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Iran, could pose significant risks, with potential military actions being a concern that may affect market stability [17][18].

海外市场点评 假期海外市场的宏观悬念 glmszqdatemark 宏观数据的接连向好，可能会小幅弱化市场的降息预期，进而引发美元、美债收 益率短期反弹，对权益市场形成一定的不利扰动；但整体影响幅度预计有限：一 方面，市场已充分定价上半年美联储暂缓降息的预期，宏观数据也只是为利率"按 兵不动"提供进一步佐证；另一方面，数据层面的光鲜难以掩盖美国经济的脆弱 底色——就业市场年度下修近 90 万人，经济"K 型分化"态势日益严峻，复苏 基础并不牢固。 政策表态上，新任美联储主席候选人沃什的言论虽备受市场关注，但其政策立场 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 02 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 研究助理：武朔 执业证书：S0590525110006 执业证书：S0590525110007 执业证书：S0590125110064 邮箱：taochuan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：linyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：wushuo@glms.com.cn 随着春节假期的临近，海外市场又会孕育什么新的叙事 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the smart technology industry [2] Core Insights - The smart technology sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with various ETFs showing strong performance, particularly in the media and AI segments [3][12] - The market for new games is recovering, with both domestic and international supply accelerating, led by major companies like Tencent [4][34] - The AI application landscape is witnessing breakthroughs, with significant investments from major tech companies, indicating a potential revaluation of AI application sectors [5] Market Review - The smart technology ETFs have shown a general upward trend, with the media ETF (512980) leading with a 22.14% increase, followed by the Sci-Tech AI ETF (588760) and the Xinchuang ETF (159537) with increases of 17.39% and 17.21% respectively [3][12] - The technology sector is in an upward channel, supported by factors such as valuation recovery, improved trading structures, and ongoing policy support for technology sectors [12] Industry Dynamics - The gaming market is seeing a revival with major titles being launched, including Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" and "All-Star Awakening," which are expected to generate significant revenue [4][34] - The film industry is also active, with six high-quality films scheduled for release during the 2026 Spring Festival, indicating a rich supply for the cinema market [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on AI application-themed ETFs, as the release of models like Seedance 2.0 and Keling 3.0 marks significant advancements in the multi-modal field, which could lead to accelerated commercialization of AI applications [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for multimodal models, which are anticipated to drive growth in the film, gaming, and advertising sectors due to significant improvements in capabilities and cost reductions [5][12][15] - The launch of the Keling 3.0 series and Byte's Seedance 2.0 marks a competitive breakthrough in the multimodal field, enabling comprehensive video production processes and enhancing user experience [6][13] - Keling AI has rapidly commercialized its multimodal models, boasting over 60 million creators and generating more than 600 million videos, with an annual revenue run rate of $240 million [7][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer index fell by 3.27% during the week of February 2-6, 2026, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% [4][16] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape with the introduction of advanced models like Keling 3.0 and Seedance 2.0, which are set to redefine video creation and content production [6][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of commercial viability for multimodal models, suggesting that 2026 will be crucial for cost reduction and quality enhancement [14] Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary companies include Wanjing Technology, Haitai Ruisheng, Hongsoft Technology, and others, with a focus on AI application investment opportunities [8][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for multimodal models, which are anticipated to drive growth in the film, gaming, and advertising sectors due to significant improvements in capabilities and reductions in costs [5][12][15] - The launch of the Keling 3.0 series and Byte's Seedance 2.0 models marks a significant advancement in the multimodal field, enabling comprehensive video production processes and enhancing competition among industry players [6][13] - Keling AI has rapidly commercialized its multimodal models, boasting over 60 million creators and generating more than 600 million videos by the end of 2025, with an annual revenue run rate of $240 million [7][14] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The computer index fell by 3.27% during the week of February 2-6, 2026, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.33% [4][16] Multimodal Model Developments - The initial Sora model by OpenAI, launched in February 2024, is compared to a significant breakthrough in video technology, with subsequent models showing substantial advancements [5][12] - The Keling 3.0 series, launched on February 5, 2026, integrates various multimedia capabilities, marking a new era in AI-driven content creation [6][13] Commercialization Potential - The report emphasizes that 2026 will be crucial for the commercialization of multimodal models, driven by enhanced model capabilities and reduced costs, which will lower barriers to entry for users [7][14] Investment Recommendations - Beneficiaries of the anticipated growth in the multimodal sector include companies such as Wanjing Technology, Haitai Ruisheng, and Hongsoft Technology, among others [8][15]